Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1211 AM CDT Sun May 16 2021

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

Models early this afternoon remain in good agreement with an area
of thunderstorms crossing southwest Kansas during the overnight
hours. Until then a few isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms
will be possible late day near a surface boundary/warm front that
will be located just north of the Garden City and Dodge City
area. Latest HRRR does suggests that the cap will erode and with
weak forcing and mid level instability being present will go ahead
and increase the chance for late day convection. These late day
storms however are not expected to be severe weak shear and high
PWATs but a few of the strongest storms could contain some small
hail and gusty winds.

The better shear late today will be over southeast Colorado and
with steep low level lapse rates and mid level instability
forecast in this area there will be a chance for some of these
storms to become severe as they march eastward towards southwest
Kansas. These storms should persist into the evening hours as they
move into western Kansas given the strengthening low level jet
and better instability. Greatest threat for hail appears to be
early with some strong winds also being possible. After sunset the
main hazards will shift to wind and heavy rainfall.

Thunderstorms should taper off early Sunday morning with a break
in the rain expected during the day on Sunday. Sunday night is
beginning to look like a report given a similar set forecast.
Biggest difference is that better shear and forcing along our
surface boundary will be present late day.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

Models remain in decent agreement with an upper low crossing the
four corners region on Sunday and then slowly moving east
northeast into the Central Rockies by Tuesday night. Ahead of this
slow moving upper level low, a series of upper level disturbances
will move from the base of this upper low and out into the
Central Plains. The combination of a series of upper level waves
crossing the plains over the next few days along with available
low level moisture and a surface boundary lingering in or near
southwest Kansas will result in multiple rounds of rain showers
and thunderstorms. The potential also exists that some of these
storms may be severe, especially during the overnight hours.
Exactly where the greatest potential for this severe weather will
occur in the later periods is unclear given that the storms from
the previous night will impact how storms will evolve and where it
will occur the next day. Despite this uncertainty of where severe
weather will occur it does look like all of southwest Kansas will
have the opportunity for several more rounds of widespread
accumulating rainfall.

These multiple days of thunderstorms will briefly end late week
as the upper low weakens and crosses the central and northern
Plains. The break in the wet weather pattern appears to be a brief
one given that another upper low will drop south along the west
Coast late week and moves into the southwest United States early
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Sun May 16 2021

Scattered thunderstorms will be moving out of the Garden City and
Liberal terminals by the beginning of the period. Will continue
VCTS at Dodge City for a few hours before storms move out of that
area. The greatest concentration of storms will be along I-70
where Hays could see a few periods of thunderstorms through the
remainder of the night. MVFR to possibly IFR stratus is expected
to develop over much of the area later tonight with the lower cigs
gradually lifting during the day on Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  57  75  56  73 /  60  60  70  50
GCK  55  75  54  70 /  70  60  60  50
EHA  53  79  54  72 /  60  60  60  60
LBL  55  79  55  74 /  70  60  60  40
HYS  56  71  55  69 /  80  60  60  50
P28  60  74  59  76 /  60  60  70  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Gerard

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
319 AM CDT Sat May 15 2021

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-160830-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
319 AM CDT Sat May 15 2021 /219 AM MDT Sat May 15 2021/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Another round of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected across
southwest KS Saturday afternoon and evening. Current thinking is
storm will develop along a thermal boundary draped across portions
of southwest KS, as well as over the higher terrain of eastern CO
and move into western KS. Initial storms will likely be supercells
capable of severe hail, some potentially significant, and wind
gusts, with upscale growth into one or more convective systems
that will pose mainly a severe wind gust threat.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Tornado: Limited risk
* Hail: Limited risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Limited risk
* Lightning: Significant risk
* Non-thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

Convective potential will continue into Sunday as thunderstorm
development is once again expected along a thermal boundary in
southwest KS and the higher terrain in eastern CO. Primary threats
include severe hail and wind gusts, with significant severe
possible.

Early next week, the surface low and attendant buoyant sector will
be dragged farther south into TX, which will put southwest KS
within the colder, more stable air. Widespread precipitation is
still expected, but will be mostly stratiform in nature.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Sunday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Limited risk

* Monday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Tuesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Wednesday
  No hazards.

* Thursday
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

* Friday
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Significant risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

For more details visit our webpage
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ddc

SPRINGER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1131 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

KSZ030-160445-
Trego KS-
1131 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL TREGO COUNTY UNTIL
1145 PM CDT...

At 1131 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Voda, moving north at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of north central Trego
County.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
west central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3902 9982 3903 10002 3913 10010 3913 9984
TIME...MOT...LOC 0431Z 163DEG 20KT 3907 9997

TATRO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1137 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

KSZ031-160500-
Ellis KS-
1137 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN ELLIS COUNTY UNTIL
MIDNIGHT CDT...

At 1136 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Toulon, moving north at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Catherine around 1150 PM CDT.
  Emmeram around 1200 AM CDT.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3879 9924 3885 9936 3909 9931 3900 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 0436Z 202DEG 21KT 3887 9928

TATRO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1143 PM CDT SAT MAY 15 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1128 PM     HAIL             LARNED                  38.18N 99.10W
05/15/2021  U1.00 INCH       PAWNEE             KS   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: QUARTER (1.00 IN.).

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1147 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

KSZ043-044-063-076-077-086-087-160530-
Gray KS-Seward KS-Finney KS-Meade KS-Lane KS-Scott KS-Haskell KS-
1147 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN SEWARD...NORTHEASTERN
KEARNY...FINNEY...SOUTHERN SCOTT...MEADE...SOUTHWESTERN LANE...GRAY
AND EASTERN HASKELL COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 AM CDT...

At 1147 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles west of Friend to 8 miles southeast of
Plymell to 8 miles north of Floris. Movement was east at 20 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Charleston around 1210 AM CDT.
  Ingalls around 1220 AM CDT.
  Cimarron around 1230 AM CDT.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
southwestern and west central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3771 10086 3830 10113 3835 10113 3843 10065
      3784 10034 3700 10009 3700 10070
TIME...MOT...LOC 0447Z 265DEG 25KT 3830 10105 3775 10075 3700 10070

TATRO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1200 AM CDT Sun May 16 2021

KSZ046-065-160545-
Rush KS-Pawnee KS-
1200 AM CDT Sun May 16 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN PAWNEE AND
SOUTHEASTERN RUSH COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 AM CDT...

At 1200 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ash Valley, moving north at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Timken and Shaffer.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
south central and central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3822 9904 3821 9916 3849 9927 3850 9903
      3826 9903
TIME...MOT...LOC 0500Z 174DEG 11KT 3829 9911

UMSCHEID

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1218 AM CDT Sun May 16 2021

KSZ066-160545-
Stafford KS-
1218 AM CDT Sun May 16 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN STAFFORD COUNTY
UNTIL 1245 AM CDT...

At 1218 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Zenith, moving north at 20 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Zenith.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
south central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3793 9853 3817 9859 3817 9847 3792 9847
TIME...MOT...LOC 0518Z 168DEG 17KT 3800 9849

SPRINGER