Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
119 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021

...updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 127 AM CDT Wed May 5 2021

WV imagery indicates a westerly flow aloft prevailing across the
Western High Plains. Near the surface, a lee side trough of low
pressure is strengthening in southeast Colorado.

There remains an outside chance for a few showers and possibly an
isolated thunderstorm or two later today into this evening as a
series of H5 vort maxima associated with an upper level shortwave
trough slide southeast through the Western High Plains, pushing a
cold front into western Kansas by this evening. Departing surface
high pressure giving way to a south-southeasterly upslope flow
across western Kansas will help draw a meager amount of moisture
into southwest/central Kansas introducing a minimal amount of
instability ahead of the approaching front with MUCAPE values
pushing 500 J/kg or so toward late afternoon/early evening.
Developing steep low/mid level lapse rates, increased forcing
associated with the front, and the arrival of a +90kt upper level
jet maxima will introduce at least the potential for possible
isolated thunderstorm development, especially more toward
central/south central Kansas as the front moves into the area by
mid/late afternoon into early evening. Although severe weather is
not expected, any storm that develops will be capable of producing
fairly gusty winds.

Prevailing southerlies ahead of an approaching cold front will draw
warmer air into southwest/central Kansas, pushing H85 temperatures
up around 12C in central Kansas to well above 15C closer to the
Colorado border. Afternoon highs are expected to reach the upper
60s(F) to the 70s(F) with the warmest temperatures likely in southern
portions of southwest Kansas. Expect lows tonight generally down
into the 40s(F).

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Wed May 5 2021

Relatively dry conditions are expected Thursday through Friday as
weak ridging aloft moves across the Colorado Rockies into the
Western High Plains. Medium range models indicate an upper level
trough of low pressure digging southeast through the Northern
Rockies early in the weekend, sending a cold front into western
Kansas sometime late Saturday/early Sunday. Dependent on moisture
availability, showers and thunderstorm development may be possible
in association with the frontal boundary as it moves through the
region.

Ongoing warming trend will continue Thursday despite a weak cold
front pushing southward into western Kansas before stalling out.
Afternoon highs anywhere from the mid/upper 60s(F) in central Kansas
to the 70s(F) farther south/southwest can be expected. The front is
projected to lift back north Friday allowing much warmer air to lift
north into western Kansas with highs forecast to reach well into the
80s(F) across much of the area. Highs reaching 90F in portions of
extreme southwest Kansas cannot be ruled out. Much cooler arrives
by Sunday behind a strong cold front, dropping temperatures back
down below normal levels.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021

A couple of isolated swaths of 50 knot thunderstorms outflow wind
gusts will be possible between about 4 pm and 7 pm anywhere west
of DDC, as initially single cells develop cold pools and turn into
clusters east of roughly highway 83. Brief reductions in vsby to
the IFR category in moderate rain can be expected as well though
the event with mainly vfr ceilings.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  72  43  73  48 /  70  30   0   0
GCK  71  40  74  47 /  60  30   0   0
EHA  75  42  79  52 /  20  40   0   0
LBL  75  42  77  49 /  40  50   0   0
HYS  70  43  69  44 /  70  30   0   0
P28  71  46  74  47 /  40  60   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...MR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
306 AM CDT Wed May 5 2021

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-060815-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
306 AM CDT Wed May 5 2021 /206 AM MDT Wed May 5 2021/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

An isolated thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out in association
with a weak cold front pushing east-southeast through western Kansas
this afternoon into early evening. Any potential storm will be
capable of producing gusty winds.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Lightning: Limited risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

For more details visit our webpage
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ddc

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
236 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021

KSZ043>045-052015-
Lane KS-Scott KS-Ness KS-
236 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN NESS...SCOTT...
SOUTHWESTERN TREGO AND NORTHERN LANE COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM CDT...

At 235 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles southeast of Gove to 7 miles north of
Leoti. Movement was southeast at 20 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Scott City, Dighton, Grigston, Healy, Scott State Lake, Modoc,
Shallow Water, Manning, Pendennis, Amy and Shields.

LAT...LON 3870 10015 3840 10050 3827 10112 3870 10113
TIME...MOT...LOC 1935Z 333DEG 18KT 3889 10039 3859 10137

UMSCHEID