Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
544 AM CST Fri Mar 12 2021

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 409 AM CST Fri Mar 12 2021

Latest Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed in
response to low level warm advection over far southwest Kansas
early this morning. The thunderstorms have been gradually increasing
in coverage as they move rapidly to the northeast. Latest CAMs
show this area of precipitation generally exiting the forecast
area toward sunrise with additional showers and a few
thunderstorms increasing in coverage through the day.

We could see a break in storm coverage this evening. An upper
level low pressure system over southern California this morning
will move through the Desert Southwest and approach the central
and southern Plains later tonight. Upper level diffluence will
increase over the central Plains ahead of this system. With
increasing upward vertical motion and some weak instability,
expect showers and thunderstorms to increase again overnight.

Have backed off high temperatures a few more degrees today with
considerably cloudiness and easterly upslope flow.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 409 AM CST Fri Mar 12 2021

Saturday into Saturday night is still looking on track for widespread
rain and thunderstorm development as the upper low moves out over
eastern Colorado. Gulf moisture continues to stream into the
region with 50s dewpoints pushing into western Kansas. CAPE values
increase to around 1000 j/kg or so across southwest Kansas during
the afternoon along with decent deep layer shear. This could be
enough for isolated severe thunderstorms with large hail and gusty
winds being the main threat.

Model simulated reflectivity shows a trend in the storms developing
into line segments which seems reasonable as deep layer shear
vectors become more parallel to the surface boundary over western
Kansas. This would lead to training thunderstorms and an increasing
threat for heavy rain and flooding. Storm total precipitation
amounts over 3 inches are still looking good for parts of central
Kansas. The previous shift issued a Flood Watch for portions of
south central Kansas and have extended this farther north to
include locations along the I-70 corridor.

The upper low will be occluding by Saturday afternoon and evening.
Dry air wrapping into the system will begin to shut off precipitation
over far southwest Kansas by late Saturday afternoon with this trend
continuing eastward across the remainder of southwest into central
Kansas through Saturday night. Rain and thunderstorms should be
winding down along the Highway 183-281 corridor by Sunday morning.

There will be a chance for rain or rain and snow especially across
northern sections of the forecast area on Monday as the upper low
finally moves out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 544 AM CST Fri Mar 12 2021

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will persist around
central and southwest Kansas this morning. There should be a lull
in the activity this afternoon before additional showers and
thunderstorms become more numerous tonight. MVFR/IFR cigs this
morning will gradually deteriorate to IFR/LIFR later today and
tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  43  41  57  40 /  60 100 100  90
GCK  42  39  54  35 /  50 100 100  80
EHA  53  41  59  33 /  30  90  90  40
LBL  50  41  59  33 /  50  90  90  60
HYS  44  37  53  42 /  60  90 100 100
P28  50  45  61  45 /  70 100  90  90

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for KSZ030-031-045-046-
064>066-078>081-088>090.

&&

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Gerard

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
446 AM CST Fri Mar 12 2021

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-131100-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
446 AM CST Fri Mar 12 2021 /346 AM MST Fri Mar 12 2021/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

A few showers and thunderstorms this morning will across central
and south central Kansas. A few of these could be strong with
gusty winds to 50 mph and dime to nickel size hail.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Hail: Limited risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Limited risk
* Flooding: Limited risk
* Lightning: Significant risk
* Freezing rain: Elevated risk
* Snow: Limited risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

Areas of rain and thunderstorms are expected to increase in
coverage and intensity on Saturday and continue into Saturday
night. A few severe thunderstorms will be possible especially
across southwest Kansas Saturday afternoon. Thunderstorms are
expected to increase in coverage and produce heavy rain Saturday
afternoon into Saturday night. Some flooding will be possible. See
the latest Flood Watch for more information.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Saturday
  - Flooding: Limited risk
  - Lightning: Elevated risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
  - Snow: Limited risk

* Sunday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
  - Ice accumulation: Limited risk
  - Snow: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

* Monday
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Tuesday
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

* Wednesday
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Thursday
  No hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

For more details visit our webpage
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ddc

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
333 AM CST Fri Mar 12 2021

KSZ078>081-121015-
Pratt KS-Kiowa KS-Edwards KS-Ford KS-
333 AM CST Fri Mar 12 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN FORD...NORTHWESTERN
KIOWA...SOUTHEASTERN PAWNEE...SOUTHWESTERN STAFFORD...SOUTHERN
EDWARDS AND NORTHWESTERN PRATT COUNTIES UNTIL 415 AM CST...

At 333 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ford, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bucklin, Lewis, Mullinville, Ford, Belpre, Fellsburg, Hopewell,
Centerview and Trousdale.

LAT...LON 3766 9980 3800 9918 3800 9912 3787 9902
      3783 9902 3782 9901 3782 9899 3779 9896
      3750 9969
TIME...MOT...LOC 0933Z 239DEG 39KT 3762 9968

SPRINGER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
417 AM CST Fri Mar 12 2021

KSZ066-079>081-121100-
Pratt KS-Stafford KS-Kiowa KS-Edwards KS-
417 AM CST Fri Mar 12 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN KIOWA...SOUTHERN
STAFFORD...SOUTHEASTERN EDWARDS AND NORTHERN PRATT COUNTIES UNTIL 500
AM CST...

At 417 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Trousdale, moving east at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pratt, Iuka, Preston, Byers, Hopewell, Neola, Trousdale, Zenith and
Fellsburg.

LAT...LON 3763 9913 3780 9918 3798 9847 3783 9847
      3782 9846 3769 9846
TIME...MOT...LOC 1017Z 256DEG 39KT 3773 9907

GERARD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
539 AM CST FRI MAR 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 WSW PRESTON           37.75N 98.59W
03/12/2021  M65 MPH          PRATT              KS   MESONET

            MESONET STATION UP393 2.2 W PRESTON (UPR).

&&

AS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
801 AM CST Fri Mar 12 2021

KSZ078-080-081-086>090-121445-
Seward KS-Pratt KS-Meade KS-Clark KS-Barber KS-Kiowa KS-Ford KS-
Comanche KS-
801 AM CST Fri Mar 12 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN FORD...SOUTHEASTERN
SEWARD...KIOWA...MEADE...BARBER...COMANCHE...PRATT AND CLARK COUNTIES
UNTIL 845 AM CST...

At 800 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Fowler to near Kiowa. Movement was
northeast at 100 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Pratt, Medicine Lodge, Meade, Kiowa, Ashland, Coldwater, Bucklin,
Greensburg, Minneola, Haviland, Fowler, Protection, Mullinville,
Ford, Hardtner, Sharon, Sawyer, Bloom, Cullison and Hazelton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3772 9988 3771 9846 3739 9846 3738 9835
      3700 9835 3700 10084
TIME...MOT...LOC 1400Z 243DEG 87KT 3734 10027 3699 9847

RUSSELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
808 AM CST FRI MAR 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0447 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N PRATT               37.66N 98.74W
03/12/2021                   PRATT              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROUGHLY 24 POWER POLES ARE DOWN.

&&

MR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
837 AM CST Fri Mar 12 2021

KSZ065-066-078>081-090-121515-
Pratt KS-Stafford KS-Pawnee KS-Barber KS-Kiowa KS-Edwards KS-Ford KS-
837 AM CST Fri Mar 12 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL FORD...NORTHERN
KIOWA...NORTHEASTERN BARBER...SOUTHERN PAWNEE...SOUTHERN STAFFORD...
EDWARDS AND PRATT COUNTIES UNTIL 915 AM CST...

At 836 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Centerview to near Nashville. Movement was
northeast at 50 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Pratt, Kinsley, St. John, Stafford, Greensburg, Haviland, Macksville,
Lewis, Offerle, Garfield, Iuka, Preston, Sawyer, Cullison, Isabel,
Belpre, Coats, Byers, Fellsburg and Wellsford.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3731 9839 3769 9961 3815 9950 3801 9847
      3739 9846 3738 9835
TIME...MOT...LOC 1436Z 217DEG 48KT 3779 9930 3749 9846

RUSSELL