Fire Weather Watch 5, NWS Dodge City, KS

Barber County, KS, Clark County, KS, Comanche County, KS, Edwards County, KS, Finney County, KS, Ford County, KS, Grant County, KS, Gray County, KS, Hamilton County, KS, Haskell County, KS, Hodgeman County, KS, Kearny County, KS, Kiowa County, KS, Lane County, KS, Meade County, KS, Morton County, KS, Ness County, KS, Pawnee County, KS, Pratt County, KS, Rush County, KS, Scott County, KS, Seward County, KS, Stafford County, KS, Stanton County, KS, Stevens County, KS

900 
WWUS83 KDDC 090917
RFWDDC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
317 AM CST Tue Mar 9 2021

...Critical Fire Weather Tuesday and Wednesday Afternoon...

KSZ061>064-074>078-084>088-092100-
/O.CON.KDDC.FW.W.0007.210309T1800Z-210310T0100Z/
/O.CON.KDDC.FW.A.0005.210310T1800Z-210311T0100Z/
Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-
Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-
317 AM CST Tue Mar 9 2021 /217 AM MST Tue Mar 9 2021/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON CST /11 AM MST/
TODAY TO 7 PM CST /6 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 061...062...063...064...
074...075...076...077...078...084...085...086...087 AND 088...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 061...062...063...064...074...075...076...
077...078...084...085...086...087 AND 088...

* Affected Area...In Kansas...Fire Weather Zone 061 Hamilton... 
  Fire Weather Zone 062 Kearny...Fire Weather Zone 063 Finney... 
  Fire Weather Zone 064 Hodgeman...Fire Weather Zone 074 
  Stanton... Fire Weather Zone 075 Grant...Fire Weather Zone 076 
  Haskell... Fire Weather Zone 077 Gray...Fire Weather Zone 078 
  Ford...Fire Weather Zone 084 Morton...Fire Weather Zone 085 
  Stevens...Fire Weather Zone 086 Seward...Fire Weather Zone 087 
  Meade and Fire Weather Zone 088 Clark.

* Winds...Southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* Timing...Tuesday and Wednesday Afternoon

* Relative Humidity...Falling to 10 to 15 percent.

* Temperatures...In the lower 60s.

* Impacts...Any fires that start will have extreme fire behavior 
  and spread rapidly. Outdoor burning is not advised.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

KSZ046-065-066-081-090-092100-
/O.EXA.KDDC.FW.A.0005.210310T1800Z-210311T0100Z/
Rush-Pawnee-Stafford-Pratt-Barber-
317 AM CST Tue Mar 9 2021

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 046...065...066...081 AND 090...

The National Weather Service in Dodge City has issued a Fire
Weather Watch For wind and low relative humidity, which is in
effect from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening.

* Affected Area...In Kansas...Fire Weather Zone 046 Rush...Fire 
  Weather Zone 065 Pawnee...Fire Weather Zone 066 Stafford...
  Fire Weather Zone 081 Pratt and Fire Weather Zone 090 Barber.

* Winds...Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* Timing...Wednesday Afternoon

* Relative Humidity...Falling to 10 to 15 percent.

* Temperatures...In the mid 70s.

* Impacts...Any fires that start will have extreme fire behavior 
  and spread rapidly. Outdoor burning is not advised.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

KSZ043>045-079-080-089-092100-
/O.CON.KDDC.FW.A.0005.210310T1800Z-210311T0100Z/
Scott-Lane-Ness-Edwards-Kiowa-Comanche-
317 AM CST Tue Mar 9 2021

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 043...044...045...079...080 AND 089...

* Affected Area...In Kansas...Fire Weather Zone 043 Scott...Fire 
  Weather Zone 044 Lane...Fire Weather Zone 045 Ness...Fire 
  Weather Zone 079 Edwards...Fire Weather Zone 080 Kiowa and 
  Fire Weather Zone 089 Comanche.

* Winds...Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* Timing...Wednesday Afternoon

* Relative Humidity...As low as 11 percent.

* Temperatures...In the lower 70s.

* Impacts...Any fires that start will have extreme fire behavior 
  and spread rapidly. Outdoor burning is not advised.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

For more information from NOAA/National weather service visit...
http://weather.gov/ddc

691 
WWUS83 KDDC 091945
RFWDDC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
145 PM CST Tue Mar 9 2021

...Critical Fire Weather Through Wednesday Afternoon...

KSZ061>064-074>078-084>088-101200-
/O.UPG.KDDC.FW.A.0005.210310T1800Z-210311T0100Z/
/O.NEW.KDDC.FW.W.0008.210310T1800Z-210311T0100Z/
/O.CON.KDDC.FW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-210310T0100Z/
Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-
Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-
145 PM CST Tue Mar 9 2021 /1245 PM MST Tue Mar 9 2021/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CST /6 PM MST/
THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER 
ZONES 061...062...063...064...074...075...076...077...078...084...085...
086...087 AND 088... ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON CST 
/11 AM MST/ TO 7 PM CST /6 PM MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 061...062...063...064...074...075...076...077...
078...084...085...086...087 AND 088...

The National Weather Service in Dodge City has issued a Red Flag Warning
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, which is in effect from noon CST
/11 AM MST/ to 7 PM CST /6 PM MST/ Wednesday. The Fire Weather Watch
is no longer in effect.

* Affected Area...In Kansas...Fire Weather Zone 061 Hamilton... 
  Fire Weather Zone 062 Kearny...Fire Weather Zone 063 Finney... 
  Fire Weather Zone 064 Hodgeman...Fire Weather Zone 074 
  Stanton... Fire Weather Zone 075 Grant...Fire Weather Zone 076 
  Haskell... Fire Weather Zone 077 Gray...Fire Weather Zone 078 
  Ford...Fire Weather Zone 084 Morton...Fire Weather Zone 085 
  Stevens...Fire Weather Zone 086 Seward...Fire Weather Zone 087 
  Meade and Fire Weather Zone 088 Clark.

* Winds...Southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* Timing...Tuesday and Wednesday Afternoon

* Relative Humidity...As low as 8 percent.

* Temperatures...Around 80.

* Impacts...Any fires that start will have extreme fire behavior 
  and spread rapidly. Outdoor burning is not advised.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

KSZ043>046-065-066-079>081-089-090-101200-
/O.UPG.KDDC.FW.A.0005.210310T1800Z-210311T0100Z/
/O.NEW.KDDC.FW.W.0008.210310T1800Z-210311T0100Z/
Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Pawnee-Stafford-Edwards-Kiowa-Pratt-Comanche-
Barber-
145 PM CST Tue Mar 9 2021

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
WIND AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 043...044...045...
046...065...066...079...080...081...089 AND 090...

The National Weather Service in Dodge City has issued a Red Flag
Warning FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, which is in effect from
noon to 7 PM CST Wednesday. The Fire Weather Watch is no longer in
effect.

* Affected Area...In Kansas...Fire Weather Zone 043 Scott...Fire 
  Weather Zone 044 Lane...Fire Weather Zone 045 Ness...Fire 
  Weather Zone 046 Rush...Fire Weather Zone 065 Pawnee...Fire 
  Weather Zone 066 Stafford...Fire Weather Zone 079 Edwards...
  Fire Weather Zone 080 Kiowa...Fire Weather Zone 081 Pratt...
  Fire Weather Zone 089 Comanche and Fire Weather Zone 090 
  Barber.

* Winds...Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* Timing...Wednesday Afternoon

* Relative Humidity...As low as 8 percent.

* Temperatures...In the 70s.

* Impacts...Any fires that start will have extreme fire behavior 
  and spread rapidly. Outdoor burning is not advised.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

For more information from NOAA/National weather service visit...
http://weather.gov/ddc

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1239 PM CST Mon Mar 8 2021

...Updated Long Term Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1046 AM CST Mon Mar 8 2021

The short term forecast as well as the start of the long term
through mid week Wednesday, will be driven by strong winds and
fire weather concerns. Afternoon high temperatures today will
range from the low 70s in the eastern CWA to the upper 70s near
the Colorado border. Gusty south to southwest winds will continue
to push up to 30-40 mph this afternoon through sunset and early
evening due to a leeside trough across eastern Colorado. Winds
will subside some overnight due to radiational cooling around
15-25 mph but pick up once again late Tuesday morning as the
aforementioned leeside trough deepens with diurnal trends through
the afternoon and early evening time frame.

Overnight low temperatures will once again be mild for this time
of year due to the downsloping of the south to southwest winds
only dropping into the upper 30s to upper 40s across the CWA. With
more of a westerly component to these winds through the afternoon,
temperatures will be even warmer into the mid 70s to low 80s east
to west across the CWA. Thus, even lower humidity values and
increased fire weather concerns as discussed in the fire weather
portion of the discussion. These winds will again diminish some
after sunset and into early Wednesday morning with overnight
temperatures expected to be even more mild in the low 40s to low
50s under continued mainly clear to partly cloudy skies. Changes
to come towards the end of the week and much needed precipitation
chances on the increase for the long term forecast but the short
term through mid week is all predicated on fire weather concerns,
especially in the more drought stricken far western counties near
the Colorado border.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 1227 PM CST Mon Mar 8 2021

More fire weather concerns to start the long term forecast on
Wednesday as afternoon high temperatures will still be quite warm
for this time of year in the mid 70s to near 80 dropping the
relative humidity values into the teens. Gusty south to southwest
winds once again up to 20-30 mph expected through the afternoon
hours before diminishing after sunset and overnight ahead of an
approaching upper level low cut off in the southwest pushing the
first disturbance Thursday. Increasing clouds and winds shifting
more easterly with upslope flow near the surface increasing the
moisture advection across the CWA. Cooler temperatures in the 50s
to mid 60s Thursday with more widespread 50s on Friday.

The first precipitation round will be Friday afternoon with rain
showers and isolated thunderstorms with the increasing instability
under the warm moist finger of the low level jet extending in from
the east to southeast. Rain totals look to be low and severe
weather is not expected at this time. The next round over Friday
night trends to be more of a straight rain shower events with
possible quick turnover to snow for northwestern counties as the
next shortwave lifts across the high plains off the Raton Mesa.
There is still some uncertainty with model inconsistency to have a
more confident premise on how much and if this turnover comes to
fruition. The stronger and final disturbance into early Sunday
morning will have a more widespread changeover from rain to snow
before exiting to the east during the Sunday afternoon hours.

Temperatures will only be in the 40s over the weekend, now on the
below average side of seasonable temperatures with even upper 30s
for points further northwest and north. Morning low temperatures
will be more seasonable back in the 20s with a warming trend to
extend into the next work week back into the 50s where it should
be closer to for mid March. Overall, the long term forecast sticks
with the fire weather concerns to start before changing over to
increasing precipitation chances and cooler temperatures to end
the week and over the weekend. This will hopefully help to aid in
some of the drought stricken areas for points along and west of
the Hwy 83 corridor if not dry slotted as it has many times
before. Stay tuned for forecast updates in the coming days for
this event over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1034 AM CST Mon Mar 8 2021

VFR conditions for all TAF sites through the entirety of the
period. Gusty south to southwest winds up to 30-35kts possible
through this afternoon and early evening before diminishing after
03Z due to radiational cooling and a weak inversion near the
surface. Expect these south winds to increase once again towards
the end of the TAF period by 16Z due to a continued leeside trough
over eastern Colorado and daytime heating mixing boundary layer
winds to the surface. No other weather elements expected at this
time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1046 AM CST Mon Mar 8 2021

Elevated to near critical fire weather this afternoon as afternoon
high temperatures push into the low to upper 70s being warmer
towards the Colorado state line. Thus, relative humidity values
will drop into the 15-25 percent range with the near critical
conditions towards Colorado west of the Hwy 83 corridor. Winds
will be gusty out of the south to southwest up to 30-40 mph
through sunset.

Expect red flag conditions on Tuesday and Wednesday with even
warmer afternoon high temperatures pushing into the low 80s for
some of the CWA dropping minimum relative humidity values 10-20
percent. Winds will continue to be gusty out of the south to
southwest up to 25-35 mph. The area of red flag concern will be
south of the Hwy 50 and west of the Hwy 283 corridors where the
lowest relative humidity will be below the 15 percent threshold.
Improving fire weather conditions for the remainder of the week as
cooler temperatures push into the CWA and winds start to relax as
well.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  72  47  81  51 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  74  43  82  46 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  79  44  83  44 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  75  44  83  46 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  74  47  80  49 /   0   0   0   0
P28  71  48  73  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST /6 PM MST/ this evening for
KSZ061-074-084.

Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening for KSZ061>064-074>078-084>088.

&&

SHORT TERM...Lowe
LONG TERM...Lowe
AVIATION...Lowe
FIRE WEATHER...Lowe

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
509 AM CST Mon Mar 8 2021

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-091115-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
509 AM CST Mon Mar 8 2021 /409 AM MST Mon Mar 8 2021/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------
Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions are forecast to
develop this afternoon as winds increase to 25 to 35 mph with higher
gusts. Afternoon relative humidity will fall to 20 to 30 percent.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Non-thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
* Fire weather: Significant risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------
Critical fire weather conditions are expected both Tuesday and
Wednesday with very low relative humidity forecast in the 10
to 20 percent range. Winds will continue to be fairly gusty from
the west southwest both days, but particularly Tuesday afternoon.

A major storm system is likely to develop over the upcoming weekend,
affecting potentially a large portion of the Southern and Central
Plains with a significant amount of precipitation possible.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Tuesday
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Extreme risk

* Wednesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Extreme risk

* Thursday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

* Friday
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Saturday
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
  - Snow: Limited to Elevated risk

* Sunday
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited to Elevated risk
  - Snow: Limited to Elevated risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

For more details visit our webpage
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ddc