Dense Fog Advisory 9, NWS Dodge City, KS

473 
WWUS73 KDDC 101458
NPWDDC

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
958 AM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021

KSZ061-062-074-075-101600-
/O.EXP.KDDC.FG.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-210610T1500Z/
Hamilton-Kearny-Stanton-Grant-
Including the cities of Syracuse, Lakin, Deerfield, Johnson City,
and Ulysses
958 AM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021 /858 AM MDT Thu Jun 10 2021/

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS
MORNING...

Visibilities have improved across the area. Therefore, the
advisory will be allowed to expire.

$$

Gerard

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
514 AM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 117 AM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021

A large 5940 high centered over northwest Mexico will combine with
a moist boundary layer to give us another warm and muggy day
across southwest Kansas. Dewpoints as of the time of this
discussion are in the upper 60s to mid 70s and with light winds we
could see some fog and low cloud stratus with potentially some
drizzle develop before sunrise this morning mainly from Ashland
to Scott City. After sunrise towards 9-10 am we should see the
boundary layer mix out and the area become quickly sunny. Highs
today should reach into the mid to upper 90s. Dewpoints in the
afternoon look to continue to be in the upper 60s to lower 70s and
heat indices will reach into the upper 90s to low 100s. It looks
like areas from Ashland to Medicine Lodge could see heat index
values as high as 103 which would keep them just below heat
advisory criteria. Winds will also be breezy out of the southeast
through the afternoon.

Tonight a 700 mb shortwave and cold front is expected to start
plowing through the plains with a large derecho event expected in
the Dakotas. Models are suggesting a squall line to develop along
the cold front in Nebraska and quickly sweep southeast through the
overnight. The indications are for our forecast area is the mid
layer temperatures will probably be to warm for any thunderstorm
development as the front will enter into western Kansas before
sunrise. That said there is some slight POPs mainly for areas
north of I-70 towards morning as there could be some slight mid
level cooling as the storms approach. Overnight lows should fall
into the 60s and 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 216 AM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021

Hot and mainly dry weather looks to be the main story in the long
term as the large high pressure in northern Mexico looks to
progress northward and intensify through the weekend. This should
keep the upper level winds well to the north in the northern
plains/southern Canada. There does look to be a bit of a shortwave
rotating around the main high on Sunday which looks to combine
with some cooler mid level temperatures and that could lead to
some thunderstorm activity from Sunday night into Monday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 510 AM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021

Low cloud stratus and fog will be possible to start the time
period for DDC, GCK, and LBL with IFR to at time LIFR flight
conditions through 15Z. Cloud ceilings will rise quickly after 15
Z to VFR conditions through the rest of the time frame. Winds will
increase out of the southeast after 15Z to 15-20 kts with gusts to
25 kts. A cold front is expected to move through western Kansas
late tonight towards sunrise Friday morning which will switch the
wind direction at GCK and LBL around 11Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  95  71  90  62 /   0   0  10   0
GCK  95  67  87  58 /   0   0   0   0
EHA 100  65  89  59 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  99  68  89  60 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  95  71  88  60 /  20  10  20  10
P28  96  74  94  68 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Tatro
AVIATION...Tatro

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
250 AM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-110800-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
250 AM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021 /150 AM MDT Thu Jun 10 2021/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Afternoon high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 90s and
heat index values could approach 102-104 for areas from Ashland to
Medicine Lodge.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Lightning: Limited risk
* Excessive heat: Extreme risk
* Non-thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
* Fire weather: Elevated risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

Hot weather will continue into early next week with high
temperatures reaching into the low to mid 90s.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Friday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Significant risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

* Saturday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Sunday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Monday
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

* Tuesday
  No hazards.

* Wednesday
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

For more details visit our webpage
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ddc