Areal Flood Warning 9, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
132 AM CDT Fri Sep 3 2021

...UPdated Long Term Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday evening)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Thu Sep 2 2021

Continued upper and mid level flow from the southwest bringing
ample tropical moisture for southwest Kansas. Current round of
rain showers and storms pushing east out of the CWA as
precipitation chances decrease west to east through the overnight
and morning hours Friday. Expect another round to push up from the
south to southwest affecting much of the southern half of the CWA
during the afternoon and evening timeframe with a very marginal
risk of severe weather. This will depend on any breaks in the sky
and daytime heating through the morning hours. For now, cloud
cover looks to stay in place for the most part not allowing for
any strong heating and instability to pick up into the afternoon
hours. The main threat will be with heavier pockets of rainfall
towards counties along the Oklahoma state line into south central
Kansas. An isolated chance for a outflow pushing wind gusts over
50 mph are possible but not likely at this point. Storm activity
will decrease as the cold front makes its way through later in the
night north to south into the overnight hours and into Saturday.
Higher QPF amounts expected further east with over an inch
possible with less westward.

Otherwise, expect a more mild start to Friday with morning lows in
the mid 60s to low 70s warming up into the low to mid 80s below
average for this time of year. Overnight into Saturday morning
expect mainly 60s with not much of a warmup Saturday behind the
cold front and continued cloud cover and rain shower chances.
Warmer and dryer expected for the long term forecast once this
upper level disturbance finally exits to the east after Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Fri Sep 3 2021

Continued rain showers and isolated thunderstorms on Saturday
from the short term, mainly for the southern half of the CWA and
in particular into south central Kansas. Newly updated QPF amounts
show up to 2 inches for the 3 eastern counties along the Hwy 281
corridor. Over an inch for points east of the Hwy 283 corridor and
less further west to the Colorado border for the overnight and
Saturday time frame. This is the best potential for flooding
issues with heavier pockets of rainfall expected at this time
seeing 50-60 pops through this area. Temperatures will struggle
through the 70s for much of the CWA due to the ample rainfall and
immense cloud cover through the entire day. This is associated
with the cold front that slowly pushes through the CWA finally
pushing through later in the day as models keep pushing FROPA back
in time. Behind the front, decreasing rain chances and improving
skies overnight into Sunday allowing for temperatures to drop into
the upper 50s to low 60s.

As the upper level trough supporting the aforementioned frontal
boundary near the surface exits to the east, ridging will build
back in across the Rockies and western high plains setting up a
warming and dry trend through Sunday and much of next work week.
No precipitation is forecasted at this time through next weekend
with long term models not optimistic for much if any rainfall
through mid September. Morning low temperatures through much of
the long term in the 60s with afternoon highs back into the 80s
Sunday and 90s Monday onward. Southerly flow will return for
Monday and increase with strength due to leeside troughing over
eastern Colorado advecting ample warmer air into southwest Kansas.
Expect upper 90s to near 100 degrees once again by the end of the
work week on Friday. All in all, soak in the rainfall from Friday
and Saturday before it dries right back out with summer still
holding on.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Thu Sep 2 2021

VFR conditions expected throughout the period for all TAF sites.
Ongoing rain showers and thunderstorms are mainly east of all
locations with mid level ceilings and light southerly winds around
10kts. Expect another round of isolated storms and rain showers
after 20Z for LBL, GCK, and DDC remaining south of HYS. Confidence
low on station carrying VCTS through 00Z after that point.
Otherwise, expect lifting ceilings to the upper levels and winds
more southeasterly around 10kts through the end of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68  86  67  78 /  50  40  60  50
GCK  66  84  65  78 /  40  30  60  40
EHA  65  90  64  80 /  30  30  50  50
LBL  67  90  65  79 /  40  40  50  50
HYS  67  82  65  77 /  60  40  60  30
P28  72  90  71  80 /  60  50  60  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Lowe
LONG TERM...Lowe
AVIATION...Lowe

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
145 AM CDT Fri Sep 3 2021

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-040645-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
145 AM CDT Fri Sep 3 2021 /1245 AM MDT Fri Sep 3 2021/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Increasing precipitation chances during the day Friday and
especially overnight into Saturday morning with the next round of
scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. The best
chances for flooding concerns will be for eastern zones along and
east of the Hwy 183 corridor, especially into south central
Kansas along the Hwy 281 corridor where up to 2 inches will be
possible.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Flooding: Limited risk
* Lightning: Elevated risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

Continued rain showers and thunderstorms will push south through
southwest Kansas Saturday morning and afternoon exiting into
Oklahoma by sunset along a cold front. Diminishing storm and
flooding threats with less QPF expected to start the long term
period with no hazards forecasted through Thursday. Expect much
warmer temperatures by the end of the work week pushing the upper
90s and close to the 100 degree mark giving way to excessive heat
concerns Friday and over next weekend. Dry conditions are expected
as well.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Saturday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Sunday
  - No hazards

* Monday
  - No hazards

* Tuesday
  - No hazards

* Wednesday
  - No hazards

* Thursday
  - No hazards

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

For more details visit our webpage
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ddc