Areal Flood Warning 5, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
745 PM CDT Mon May 24 2021

...Mesoscale Discussion...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 737 PM CDT Mon May 24 2021

Severe thunderstorms possible through midnight. The main hazards
will be winds gusting to 60 mph, hail up to 2" and very heavy
rainfall.

Low level jet developing with 0-6km shear 40knots or greater west
of highway 283. Severe thunderstorms are expected to continue and
possibly increase in coverage through early tonight as they move
east southeast across southwest Kansas. As these storms move east
shear and cape will decrease but still enough appears to be
present to continue the threat for severe thunderstorms capable of
producing large hail and strong winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 108 PM CDT Mon May 24 2021

As of 17z it appears that models were having some difficulty in
picking up on a west to east surface boundary that was moving
north across Scott and Lane counties. Satellite loop also
indicates cu developing along this boundary at this time. Along
this boundary SPC Mesoscale Analysis has 0-6km shear of 30 to 40
knots and nice low level shear (15knots 0-1km shear and 20-30knot
0-3km shear) so conditions are looking more and more favorable
that as storms develop in this area over the next few hours that a
the environment will be favorable for not only large hail,
baseballs, but also the potential exists that few tornadoes to be
possible across portions of west central Kansas.

Models earlier this afternoon also showing that these storms will
eventually begin merge into a cluster this evening as they move
across west central Kansas along the northern edge of a mid level
baroclinic zone as the 850mb winds increase. Again the RAP has
this mid level baroclinic zone much further north that what it may
end up being given the potential for convection late today as far
south as Scott and Lane counties. At this time given this
possible bias have shifted the best chance for convection further
south early tonight as these storms cross western Kansas.

As these storms track east overnight an outflow/surface boundary
will cross into southwest Kansas and the models are in decent
agreement with this surface boundary continuing to track southeast
during the day on Tuesday. By late day this surface boundary is
forecast to be located south and east of Dodge City. At this time
models appear to hold off convection until late day and by this
time the most favorable area will be south and east of Dodge City.
If the NAM is correct stronger 0-6km shear will be present late
day along this boundary along with mid level instability. If
convection does develop along this boundary late day severe
thunderstorms will be likely with hail up to baseballs being
possible.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 108 PM CDT Mon May 24 2021

Early Tuesday night models were in fairly good agreement with a
surface boundary being located just south and east of Dodge City.
Late day heating, mid level instability combined with improving
0-1km moisture convergence along this boundary will favor
scattered thunderstorms early Tuesday night as an embedded upper
wave crosses the Panhandle of Texas and south central Kansas. Some
of these storms early Tuesday night may be severe with larger
hail and strong gusty winds being the main hazards south and east
of Dodge City.

Mid to late week a series of upper level troughs will cross the
Central Plains as a west to southwest flow establishes itself
across the western and central United States. With a surface
boundary oscillating north and south across western Kansas during
this time frame there will be ongoing chances for afternoon and
overnight thunderstorms as each of these upper level troughs
passes. Exactly where, at this time, is unclear given the
uncertainty on timing of each of these upper waves crossing the
Central Plains and where this surface boundary will be located. As
a result of this uncertainty will stay close to the latest
guidance on precipitation chances.

Highs mid to late week will range from the low to mid 80s north
of wherever this surface boundary will be located on that day to
around 90 degrees south of this boundary.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 426 PM CDT Mon May 24 2021

Severe convection in progress from near Scott City to near
Syracuse as of 2120z is expected organize into a mesoscale
convective complex over the next few hours. Used HRRR trends as a
template for convective impacts at the terminals. Confidence for
impacts is highest at HYS, where a convective TEMPO group was
included (03-07z Tue). Storms will most likely graze the DDC/GCK
airports with strong outflow possible; amendments are likely.
Models concur LBL will remain dry and convection free. Stratus is
expected to spread into HYS/GCK/DDC behind the thunderstorm
complex tonight. IFR is most likely at DDC/HYS, and again least
impacts at LBL. Winds will be highly variable this evening around
convection, and in the thunderstorm complex outflow through
tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  83  58  87 /  20  20  20  20
GCK  59  81  57  86 /  20  10  10  20
EHA  57  83  57  89 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  58  85  57  89 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  60  82  56  84 /  60  40  10  30
P28  64  84  62  87 /  20  30  40  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Turner

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
508 AM CDT Mon May 24 2021

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-251015-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
508 AM CDT Mon May 24 2021 /408 AM MDT Mon May 24 2021/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

A slight risk for severe weather exists as early as 5 pm around
the Scott city area - and shifting southward toward Garden City
and Highway 400 corridor in the early evening hours. Damaging
wind, golfball size hail, lightning and heavy rain creating
localized flash flooding are all possible. An isolated tornado is
also possible.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Tornado: Limited risk
* Hail: Limited risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Limited risk
* Lightning: Elevated risk
* Non-thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
* Fire weather: Elevated risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

A stationary boundary will be in place from roughly Hays to
Liberal, providing the focus for a few strong to severe
thunderstorms across the area into central Kansas during the late
afternoon and evening.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Tuesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Wednesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Thursday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Friday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Saturday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Sunday
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed from 4 to 8 pm, mainly in the
Scott City to Garden City areas.

&&

For more details visit our webpage
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ddc

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
640 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     TORNADO          8 WNW LAKIN             37.99N 101.40W
05/24/2021                   KEARNY             KS   STORM CHASER

            STORM CHASER REPORT OF RAIN WRAPPED TORNADO.

&&

RML

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
717 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 N KENDALL             38.00N 101.54W
05/24/2021                   KEARNY             KS   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT OF 5 PLUS INCHES OF
            RAIN.

&&

RML

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
734 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0731 PM     HAIL             DEERFIELD               37.99N 101.13W
05/24/2021  E1.00 INCH       KEARNY             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

LEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
742 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0729 PM     HAIL             4 NE LAKIN              37.99N 101.22W
05/24/2021  E1.75 INCH       KEARNY             KS   PUBLIC

&&

LEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
750 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0732 PM     HAIL             DEERFIELD               37.98N 101.13W
05/24/2021  E1.25 INCH       KEARNY             KS   PUBLIC

            HALF DOLLAR SIZED HAIL REPORTED ON SOCIAL
            MEDIA.

&&

RML

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
758 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0742 PM     HAIL             5 WNW TREGO CENTER      38.91N 99.98W
05/24/2021  E1.00 INCH       TREGO              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTERS REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTER.

&&

RML