Alert archive / Nebraska / Special Weather Statements in 2021
Special Weather Statement, NWS Cheyenne, WY
NWS Cheyenne, WY issued this special weather statement at Sep 1, 2021, 4:38 PM MDT for Morrill County, Nebraska. It was in force for 37 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Sep 1, 2021, 4:38 PM MDT (22:38 UTC)
- Expired
- Sep 1, 2021, 5:15 PM MDT
- In force
- 37 min
- Issued by
- NWS Cheyenne, WY
- Hail
- 0.50 in
- Wind
- 40
County Morrill County, NE
The radar
The Cheyenne radar (KCYS), 139 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:37 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Denver, CO (KDNR), launched 12:00Z, 10.6 hours before the alert went out and 199 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 3028 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 16 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 18 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -11 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
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</html>What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Cheyenne, WY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Sep 1, 2:55 PM MDT, 1 hour 43 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Sep 1, 2:55 PM MDT, 1 hour 43 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 255 PM MDT Wed Sep 1 2021 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 217 PM MDT Wed Sep 1 2021 The short term forecast remains on-track through this afternoon and evening. A subtropical moisture surge continues to move northward through the central Rockies. Light to moderate rainfall has developed over northern ranges of Colorado and is now making its way into southern Wyoming. Forecast guidance remains locked in showing around 0.25 to 0.5 inches of rain for this event across most of the forecast area. Stronger thunderstorms are still expected to develop over western Nebraska this afternoon as wind fields turn southeasterly advecting surface moisture northward. CAM guidance has favored one or two supercells forming in the BFF vicinity and transitioning into perhaps a bowing segment moving rapidly northeastward this evening. Most of this stronger activity should exit north of the Nebraska border by 2-4z, leaving general scattered showers and stratiform rain over the forecast region for the remainder of the evening. Downsloping and NVA should eradicate most of the precipitation after 6-9z tonight, leaving a mainly dry early morning on Thursday. The expectation for Thursday has transitioned to a drier forecast, with light west to southwest flow in place. A few isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two could develop over the higher terrain given a bit of leftover elevated moisture, however PoP chances have been greatly reduced from prior forecasts. Temperatures will remain near or below average through the period given abundant cloud cover and precipitation. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 217 PM MDT Wed Sep 1 2021 The next weather system will move through on Friday. This system will come in the form of a weak trough aloft. Some moisture return along the leading edge of this system will result in a threat for showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon hours. The latest ECMWF is particularly bullish with this threat, with as much as a quarter of an inch of rain possible over the panhandle of Nebraska. Zonal flow behind this system will gradually transition to ridging over the western CONUS by the end of the weekend into early next week. The only other forecast challenge in the long term is the potential for elevated winds on Saturday and Sunday. Given drying in the lower levels, Red Flag conditions may return to portions of the higher terrain in southeast Wyoming. Dry and benign weather is expected from early through the middle of next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 1125 AM MDT Wed Sep 1 2021 VFR conditions expected to continue across southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska panhandle over the next few hours. KRWL has started to receive rain showers, which will propagate eastward toward KLAR, KCYS, and into the Nebraska panhandle through the evening into overnight hours. Timing for when the showers will end is still uncertain, but it should be in the early tomorrow morning hours. In addition, thunderstorms are possible in the Nebraska panhandle generally between 00Z and 06Z, with showers continuing into early morning hours. Strong, gusty winds are possible in the outflow boundaries of the thunderstorms, as well as MVFR ceilings. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 217 PM MDT Wed Sep 1 2021 Expect minimal fire weather concerns over the next few days. Showers and thunderstorms will result in higher RH values from today through Thursday as a push of moisture moves through. Another weather system will move through on Friday bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms especially over southeast Wyoming. Expect drying by the weekend. Stronger winds may result in borderline Red Flag conditions returning by Saturday or Sunday. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && SHORT TERM...TCYS LONG TERM...TCYS AVIATION...LK FIRE WEATHER...MAC
Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 1, 6:05 AM MDT, 10 hours 33 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 605 AM MDT Wed Sep 1 2021 WYZ103>106-109>117-021215- North Laramie Range-Ferris/Seminoe/Shirley Mountains- Shirley Basin-Central Laramie Range and Southwest Platte County- Central Carbon County-North Snowy Range Foothills- Southwest Carbon County-Sierra Madre Range- Upper North Platte River Basin-Snowy Range-Laramie Valley- South Laramie Range-South Laramie Range Foothills- 605 AM MDT Wed Sep 1 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central Wyoming and southeast Wyoming. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT Scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms are expected along and west of the Laramie Range today and tonight. Locally heavy rainfall is possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .Spotter information statement... Spotter activation will not be needed. WYZ101-102-107-108-118-119-021215- Converse County Lower Elevations-Niobrara County- East Platte County-Goshen County-Central Laramie County- East Laramie County- 605 AM MDT Wed Sep 1 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of east central Wyoming and southeast Wyoming. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible today and tonight across much of southeast Wyoming. Severe storms are not expected, but locally heavy rainfall will be possible with some storms. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY Another round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Friday and Friday night. .Spotter information statement... Spotter activation will not be needed. NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-021215- Dawes County-Box Butte County-Scotts Bluff County-Banner County- Morrill County-Kimball County-Cheyenne County- Northern Sioux County-Southern Sioux County- 605 AM MDT Wed Sep 1 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of panhandle Nebraska. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible across the western Nebraska Panhandle this afternoon and evening, mainly after 3 PM MDT. A few strong to severe storms are possible with damaging winds to 60 MPH, quarter size hail and heavy rainfall the primary hazards. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY Another round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Friday and Friday night. .Spotter information statement... Spotters are encouraged to report significant weather to the National Weather Service in Cheyenne.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Sep 1, 4:38 PM MDT, 0 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
438 PM MDT Wed Sep 1 2021
NEZ019>021-012315-
Scotts Bluff NE-Morrill NE-Banner NE-
438 PM MDT Wed Sep 1 2021
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Scotts
Bluff, southwestern Morrill and northeastern Banner Counties through
515 PM MDT...
At 438 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Redington, or 26 miles southeast of Scottsbluff, moving north at 25
mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Bayard, Minatare, Chimney Rock State Park, Moomaws Corner, Redington,
South Bayard Junction and McGrew.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4153 10317 4151 10341 4186 10352 4188 10316
TIME...MOT...LOC 2238Z 174DEG 21KT 4160 10331
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
MokryThe office that day
Everything else NWS Cheyenne, WY issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1, 4:49 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CYS | Banner, Morrill, Scotts Bluff | 41 min |
| Sep 1, 5:06 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CYS | Morrill | 39 min |
| Sep 1, 5:45 PM MDT | Special Weather Statement | CYS | Box Butte | 30 min |
| Sep 1, 5:49 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CYS | Box Butte, Morrill | 41 min |
Nearby
Special Weather Statements in Nebraska, 2021Every special weather statement in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.