Areal Flood Advisory 5, NWS Cheyenne, WY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
513 PM MDT Tue Jun 8 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight - Thursday Night)
Issued at 227 PM MDT Tue Jun 8 2021

A very strong cap remains evident across much of southeast Wyoming
and the western Nebraska Panhandle this afternoon w/ quite limited
cumulus development thus far. We should start to see an increasing
low-level cumulus field in the next couple of hours as we approach
our convective temperatures, but w/ upwards of 50 J/kg MLCIN still
present the likelihood of afternoon initiation appears low. HRRR &
other high-resolution guidance have continued to suggest some more
robust development between 00 and 02z along the lee trough/dryline
or roughly along I-25. Deep layer vertical shear is very modest at
around 20 knots over most of the area, but area forecast soundings
show appreciable low-level directional shear which would suggest a
good possibility of upscale growth into a linear system across the
western NE Panhandle during the mid/late evening. Substantial low-
level mixing has occurred today w/ dew points falling to around 50
F although some 60s still linger over our far eastern zones. CAPEs
in excess of 2000 J/kg will support a large & damaging hail threat
with any discrete storms. Otherwise, extremely steep low/mid level
lapse rates and large boundary layer T/Td spreads, along w/ DCAPEs
of 1500-2000 J/kg will support a threat for damaging straight line
winds with the eventual MCS. Lingering outflow from Mondays storms
could locally enhance low-level shear & contribute to a chance for
an isolated tornado if the quality of moisture is sufficient. This
is especially true along a Wheatland-Sidney line.

A brief period of upper-level ridging should limit chances for any
storms on Wednesday, but the next chance for strong/severe thunder
storms will arrive Thursday as a vigorous short wave ejects north-
northeast across the Great Basin. Increasingly difluent flow aloft
should overspread the area, leading to an eroding cap & initiation
by late afternoon. Timing will be crucial here w/ regard to severe
potential, but very steep mid-level lapse rates & dew points 55-65
deg F may contribute to CAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg to the east of
the lee trough/dryline while 0-6 km shear should be very strong at
35-45+ knots. All modes of severe weather would be possible. Would
not be surprised if the current Day 3 SLGT is expanded further S &
W in later updates.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 345 AM MDT Tue Jun 8 2021

Shortwave trough quickly exits northeast of the CWA by Friday morning,
followed by an expanding upper ridge over much of the CONUS through
early next week. Large scale subsidence and lack of moisture will
preclude convective precipitation through the long term. Near normal
temperatures Friday will warm to above normal with 80s and 90s this
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 507 PM MDT Tue Jun 8 2021

VFR conditions across all terminals this evening with chances of
thunderstorms at KCYS and all Nebraska panhandle TAF sites. Clouds
will begin building in in the next few hours with thunderstorms
beginning at KCYS around 00Z and moving eastward into the Nebraska
panhandle through the night. Conditions should clear in the
Nebraska panhandle between 8Z and 10Z, then depending on if the
skies clear and the leftover moisture from the thunderstorms
there's a possibility for patchy fog, but confidence is currently
low for the fog.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 330 AM MDT Tue Jun 8 2021

Elevated to critical humidities and winds are expected west of the
Laramie Range, with non-critical humidities and winds along and east
of the Laramie Range through the end of the week. Fuels remain green,
but may become more favorable for rapid fire growth west of the Laramie
Range by the end of the week. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
will develop this afternoon and evening along and east of Interstate
25, and over the Nebraska Panhandle Thursday evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 330 AM MDT Tue Jun 8 2021

Mild to warm temperatures will contribute to mountain snowmelt runoff
and elevated stream/river levels, especially across southeast Wyoming.
No sites are forecast to rise to minor flood stage, however with the
diurnal rise and fall, it is possible waters may approach action stage
later this week. With the lack of measurable precipitation west of the
Laramie Range, the risk for rain on snowmelt will be negligible.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...LK
FIRE WEATHER...MAJ
HYDROLOGY...MAJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
413 AM MDT Tue Jun 8 2021

WYZ103>106-109>117-091015-
North Laramie Range-Ferris/Seminoe/Shirley Mountains-
Shirley Basin-Central Laramie Range and Southwest Platte County-
Central Carbon County-North Snowy Range Foothills-
Southwest Carbon County-Sierra Madre Range-
Upper North Platte River Basin-Snowy Range-Laramie Valley-
South Laramie Range-South Laramie Range Foothills-
413 AM MDT Tue Jun 8 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Wyoming and southeast Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Elevated to critical humidities and winds are forecast west of the
Laramie Range this afternoon and early evening. Fuels are not
supportive of rapid fire growth.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Elevated to critical humidities and winds will continue through
the weekend. Fuels may dry out enough to pose a rapid fire growth
threat later this week and weekend. Continue to monitor the latest
fire weather forecasts.

.Spotter information statement...

Spotter activation will not be required.

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-WYZ101-102-107-108-118-119-
091015-
Dawes County-Box Butte County-Scotts Bluff County-Banner County-
Morrill County-Kimball County-Cheyenne County-
Northern Sioux County-Southern Sioux County-
Converse County Lower Elevations-Niobrara County-
East Platte County-Goshen County-Central Laramie County-
East Laramie County-
413 AM MDT Tue Jun 8 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for the western Nebraska
Panhandle...east central Wyoming and portions of southeast
Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of
producing large hail and wind gusts in excess of 60 mph will
develop late this afternoon along and east of the Interstate 25
corridor and linger through the late evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of
producing large hail and wind gusts in excess of 60 mph will
be possible late Thursday afternoon and evening over east central
Wyoming and the northern Nebraska Panhandle.

.Spotter information statement...

Spotter activation may be required between 4 PM and 10 PM, mainly
east of Interstate 25.

MAJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
837 PM MDT TUE JUN 8 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0833 PM     HAIL             2 NW SOUTH GREELEY HIGH 41.12N 104.83W
06/08/2021  M0.70 INCH       LARAMIE            WY   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
842 PM MDT TUE JUN 8 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 PM     HAIL             1 NE LANCE CREEK        43.03N 104.62W
06/08/2021  M1.00 INCH       NIOBRARA           WY   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

AW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
930 PM MDT TUE JUN 8 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     HAIL             1 N FOX FARM-COLLEGE    41.12N 104.79W
06/08/2021  M0.70 INCH       LARAMIE            WY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

AW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
933 PM MDT Tue Jun 8 2021

WYZ102-090430-
Niobrara County WY-
933 PM MDT Tue Jun 8 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL NIOBRARA COUNTY
UNTIL 1030 PM MDT...

At 933 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles south of Redbird, or 23 miles northeast of Lusk, moving
northeast at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of east central
Niobrara County.

LAT...LON 4301 10405 4298 10429 4314 10436 4343 10406
TIME...MOT...LOC 0333Z 242DEG 15KT 4306 10425

Rubin

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
945 PM MDT Tue Jun 8 2021

NEZ020-021-054-055-090430-
Kimball NE-Cheyenne NE-Morrill NE-Banner NE-
945 PM MDT Tue Jun 8 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN CHEYENNE...KIMBALL...
SOUTHWESTERN MORRILL AND SOUTHEASTERN BANNER COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM
MDT...

At 945 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Wildcat Hills State Recreation Area to 12
miles southeast of Harrisburg to near Kimball to near Panorama Point.
Movement was east at 30 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Kimball, Potter, Dix, Oliver Campground, Oliver Reservoir, Kimball
Airport, Court House And Jail Rocks, Panorama Point, Redington,
Harrisburg and Bushnell.

This includes Interstate 80 in Nebraska between mile markers 1 and
50.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Cheyenne.

&&

LAT...LON 4125 10404 4159 10369 4164 10306 4100 10313
      4100 10403
TIME...MOT...LOC 0345Z 289DEG 26KT 4165 10362 4144 10355 4121 10361
4108 10397

Hammer

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