Alert archive / Pennsylvania / Winter Storm Watches in 2021

Winter Storm Watch 6, NWS State College, PA

February 14, 20219 counties in Pennsylvania

NWS State College, PA issued this winter storm watch at Feb 14, 2021, 3:46 PM EST for 9 counties in Pennsylvania. It took effect at Feb 15, 2021, 4:00 PM EST. It was in force for .

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Feb 14, 2021, 3:46 PM EST (20:46 UTC)
In effect from
Feb 15, 2021, 4:00 PM EST
Expired
Feb 15, 2021, 4:30 AM EST
In force
Issued by
NWS State College, PA

Counties Bedford County, PA, Cumberland County, PA, Dauphin County, PA, Franklin County, PA, Fulton County, PA, Lebanon County, PA, Perry County, PA, Schuylkill County, PA, Somerset County, PA

The radar

The State College radar (KCCX), 91 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Washington/Dulle, VA (KIAD), launched 12:00Z, 8.8 hours before the alert went out and 140 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Washington/Dulle, VA at 12:00Z on 2021-02-14Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Washington/Dulle, VA at 12:00Z on 2021-02-14The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -37 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
532 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
53 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-37 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
122 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

112 
WWUS41 KCTP 142046
WSWCTP

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
346 PM EST Sun Feb 14 2021

PAZ004>006-037-150900-
/O.UPG.KCTP.WS.A.0005.210215T1200Z-210216T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KCTP.WS.W.0004.210215T1200Z-210216T1800Z/
Warren-McKean-Potter-Tioga-
Including the cities of Warren, Bradford, Coudersport, Mansfield,
and Wellsboro
346 PM EST Sun Feb 14 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 1 PM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 9 
  inches.

* WHERE...Warren, McKean, Potter, and Tioga Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 AM Monday to 1 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A period of light snow is anticipated
  during the morning and early afternoon Monday, with steadier,
  heavier snow expected Monday night.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania
Turnpike Commission strongly encourage motorists to heed all
travel restrictions and delay unnecessary travel as significant
winter weather conditions will make travel very hazardous.

Call 5 1 1 or visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway
and traffic conditions.

To report snow or ice, post to the NWS State College Facebook
page, use Twitter @NWSStateCollege, or visit weather.gov/ctp.

&&

$$

PAZ010>012-017>019-041-042-045-046-150900-
/O.UPG.KCTP.WS.A.0005.210215T1200Z-210216T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0014.210215T1200Z-210216T1800Z/
Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-Northern Centre-
Southern Centre-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-
Southern Lycoming-
Including the cities of St. Marys, Ridgway, Emporium, Renovo, 
DuBois, Clearfield, Philipsburg, State College, Trout Run, 
Laporte, Lock Haven, and Williamsport
346 PM EST Sun Feb 14 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 1 PM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of 4 to 7 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze.

* WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 7 AM Monday to 1 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Mainly snow is expected Monday and early
  Monday evening, with a mixture of snow, sleet, and freezing 
  rain late Monday night.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania
Turnpike Commission remind motorists to adjust speeds based on
driving conditions as winter weather impacts Pennsylvania
roadways.

Call 5 1 1 or visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway
and traffic conditions.

To report snow or ice, post to the NWS State College Facebook
page, use Twitter @NWSStateCollege, or visit weather.gov/ctp.

&&

$$

PAZ024>028-049>053-150900-
/O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0014.210215T1200Z-210216T1800Z/
Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-
Including the cities of Johnstown, Altoona, Huntingdon, 
Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown, Lewisburg, Selinsgrove, 
Danville, Sunbury, Shamokin, Bloomsburg, and Berwick
346 PM EST Sun Feb 14 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 1 PM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of 2 to 4 inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of 
  an inch.

* WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 7 AM Monday to 1 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Mainly snow is expected on Monday into
  early Monday evening, with a mixture of sleet and freezing rain
  for most of Monday night. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania
Turnpike Commission remind motorists to adjust speeds based on
driving conditions as winter weather impacts Pennsylvania
roadways.

Call 5 1 1 or visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway
and traffic conditions.

To report snow or ice, post to the NWS State College Facebook
page, use Twitter @NWSStateCollege, or visit weather.gov/ctp.

&&

$$

PAZ064>066-150900-
/O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0014.210215T2100Z-210216T1800Z/
Adams-York-Lancaster-
Including the cities of Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster
346 PM EST Sun Feb 14 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of up to one inch and ice accumulations of one tenth to two 
  tenths of an inch.

* WHERE...Adams, York, and Lancaster Counties.

* WHEN...From 4 PM Monday to 1 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A mixture of snow, sleet, and freezing rain
  will develop late in the day Monday. Mixed sleet and freezing
  rain Monday night, may even change over to plain rain for a time
  during the pre-dawn hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania
Turnpike Commission remind motorists to adjust speeds based on
driving conditions as winter weather impacts Pennsylvania
roadways.

Call 5 1 1 or visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway
and traffic conditions.

To report snow or ice, post to the NWS State College Facebook
page, use Twitter @NWSStateCollege, or visit weather.gov/ctp.

&&

$$

PAZ033>036-056>059-063-150900-
/O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0006.210215T2100Z-210216T1800Z/
Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-
Cumberland-
Including the cities of Somerset, Bedford, McConnellsburg, 
Chambersburg, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Pottsville, Lebanon, 
and Carlisle
346 PM EST Sun Feb 14 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
  accumulations of up to two inches and ice accumulations of one
  tenth to two tenths of an inch, with locally greater than a
  quarter of an inch, mainly over the higher terrain. 

* WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The best potential for sustained freezing
  rain is Monday night.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

There is the potential for significant winter weather that may
impact travel.

Review winter weather safety and preparedness information at
weather.gov/winter.

The latest forecast information can be found on the
NWS State College Facebook page and Twitter @NWSStateCollege,
or on the web at weather.gov/ctp.

&&

$$

Jurewicz/Wagner
2 follow-up statements
970 
WWUS41 KCTP 150302
WSWCTP

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
1002 PM EST Sun Feb 14 2021

PAZ004>006-037-151600-
/O.CON.KCTP.WS.W.0004.210215T1200Z-210216T1800Z/
Warren-McKean-Potter-Tioga-
Including the cities of Warren, Bradford, Coudersport, Mansfield,
and Wellsboro
1002 PM EST Sun Feb 14 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO
1 PM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected, possibly mixing with some sleet late
  Monday night. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 9 inches.

* WHERE...Warren, McKean, Potter, and Tioga Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 AM Monday to 1 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A period of light snow is anticipated
  during the morning and early afternoon Monday, with steadier,
  heavier snow expected Monday night. Sleet could mix in at times
  late Monday night which could reduce the storm total snowfall by
  around 2 inches. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania
Turnpike Commission strongly encourage motorists to heed all
travel restrictions and delay unnecessary travel as significant
winter weather conditions will make travel very hazardous.

Call 5 1 1 or visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway
and traffic conditions.

To report snow or ice, post to the NWS State College Facebook
page, use Twitter @NWSStateCollege, or visit weather.gov/ctp.

&&

$$

PAZ010>012-017>019-024>028-041-042-045-046-049>053-151600-
/O.CON.KCTP.WW.Y.0014.210215T1200Z-210216T1800Z/
Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-Northern Centre-
Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-
Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-
Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-
Including the cities of St. Marys, Ridgway, Emporium, Renovo, 
DuBois, Clearfield, Philipsburg, State College, Johnstown, 
Altoona, Huntingdon, Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown, 
Trout Run, Laporte, Lock Haven, Williamsport, Lewisburg, 
Selinsgrove, Danville, Sunbury, Shamokin, Bloomsburg, and Berwick
1002 PM EST Sun Feb 14 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO
1 PM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow then mixed precipitation expected. Total snow 
  accumulations of 2 to 5 inches and ice accumulations of up to 
  one tenth of an inch. Locally around 6 inches of snow is 
  possible near and to the north of Interstate 80. 

* WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 7 AM Monday to 1 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Mainly snow is expected on Monday into
  Monday evening, with a mixture of sleet and freezing rain for
  the latter half of Monday night. A 2 to 3 hour period of heavy
  snow, with rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour, is possible Monday 
  evening when the bulk of the snow is expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania
Turnpike Commission remind motorists to adjust speeds based on
driving conditions as winter weather impacts Pennsylvania
roadways.

Call 5 1 1 or visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway
and traffic conditions.

To report snow or ice, post to the NWS State College Facebook
page, use Twitter @NWSStateCollege, or visit weather.gov/ctp.

&&

$$

PAZ064>066-151600-
/O.CON.KCTP.WW.Y.0014.210215T2100Z-210216T1800Z/
Adams-York-Lancaster-
Including the cities of Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster
1002 PM EST Sun Feb 14 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO
1 PM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of up to one inch and ice accumulations of one tenth to two 
  tenths of an inch.

* WHERE...Adams, York, and Lancaster Counties.

* WHEN...From 4 PM Monday to 1 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A mixture of snow, sleet, and freezing rain
  will develop late in the day Monday. Mixed sleet and freezing
  rain Monday night will fall heavy at times, and may even change
  over to plain rain for a time during the pre-dawn hours with
  temperatures steady or slowly rising to 32 or 33 degrees.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania
Turnpike Commission remind motorists to adjust speeds based on
driving conditions as winter weather impacts Pennsylvania
roadways.

Call 5 1 1 or visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway
and traffic conditions.

To report snow or ice, post to the NWS State College Facebook
page, use Twitter @NWSStateCollege, or visit weather.gov/ctp.

&&

$$

PAZ033>036-056>059-063-151600-
/O.CON.KCTP.WS.A.0006.210215T2100Z-210216T1800Z/
Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-
Cumberland-
Including the cities of Somerset, Bedford, McConnellsburg, 
Chambersburg, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Pottsville, Lebanon, 
and Carlisle
1002 PM EST Sun Feb 14 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
  accumulations of up to two inches and ice accumulations of one
  tenth to two tenths of an inch, with locally greater than a
  quarter of an inch, mainly on the ridge tops.

* WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The best potential for sustained, heavier 
  freezing rain is Monday night.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

There is the potential for significant winter weather that may
impact travel.

Review winter weather safety and preparedness information at
weather.gov/winter.

The latest forecast information can be found on the NWS State
College Facebook page and Twitter @NWSStateCollege, or on the web
at weather.gov/ctp.

&&

$$

Lambert
007 
WWUS41 KCTP 150930
WSWCTP

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
430 AM EST Mon Feb 15 2021

PAZ010-011-160000-
/O.UPG.KCTP.WW.Y.0014.210215T1200Z-210216T1800Z/
/O.EXA.KCTP.WS.W.0004.210215T1200Z-210216T1800Z/
Elk-Cameron-
Including the cities of St. Marys, Ridgway, and Emporium
430 AM EST Mon Feb 15 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM
EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 5 to 7 inches and ice accumulations of less
  than one tenth of an inch.

* WHERE...Elk and Cameron Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 AM this morning to 1 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could impact parts of the Monday evening and Tuesday
  morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...An initial period of snow will start this
  morning and taper off this afternoon. Another period of snow is
  expected this evening and early tonight and may be heavy at
  times with rates greater than 1 inch per hour possible before 
  changing to a wintry mix into early Tuesday morning. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania
Turnpike Commission strongly encourage motorists to heed all
travel restrictions and delay unnecessary travel as significant
winter weather conditions will make travel very hazardous.

Call 5 1 1 or visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway
and traffic conditions.

To report snow or ice, post to the NWS State College Facebook
page, use Twitter @NWSStateCollege, or visit weather.gov/ctp.

&&

$$

PAZ004>006-037-160000-
/O.CON.KCTP.WS.W.0004.210215T1200Z-210216T1800Z/
Warren-McKean-Potter-Tioga-
Including the cities of Warren, Bradford, Coudersport, Mansfield,
and Wellsboro
430 AM EST Mon Feb 15 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING
TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 8
  inches. 

* WHERE...McKean, Tioga, Warren and Potter Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 AM this morning to 1 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could impact parts of the Monday evening and Tuesday
  morning commute. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...An initial period of snow will start this
  morning and taper off this afternoon. Another period of snow is
  expected this evening and early tonight and may be heavy at
  times with rates greater than 1 inch per hour possible. Snow 
  may change to a wintry mix into early Tuesday morning with a 
  light glaze of ice possible mainly to the south of Route 6.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania
Turnpike Commission strongly encourage motorists to heed all
travel restrictions and delay unnecessary travel as significant
winter weather conditions will make travel very hazardous.

Call 5 1 1 or visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway
and traffic conditions.

To report snow or ice, post to the NWS State College Facebook
page, use Twitter @NWSStateCollege, or visit weather.gov/ctp.

&&

$$

PAZ033>036-056>059-063-160000-
/O.UPG.KCTP.WS.A.0006.210215T2100Z-210216T1800Z/
/O.EXA.KCTP.WW.Y.0014.210215T1200Z-210216T1800Z/
Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-
Cumberland-
Including the cities of Somerset, Bedford, McConnellsburg, 
Chambersburg, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Pottsville, Lebanon, 
and Carlisle
430 AM EST Mon Feb 15 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO
1 PM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
  accumulations of up to one inch and ice accumulations of one
  tenth to two tenths of an inch.

* WHERE...Portions of south central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 7 AM this morning to 1 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could impact parts of the Monday evening and Tuesday
  morning commute. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Occasional light sleet or freezing rain is
  expected today. The heaviest ice is expected later this evening
  through tonight. Precipitation may change to rain southeast of
  I-81 and I-78 early Tuesday morning. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania
Turnpike Commission remind motorists to adjust speeds based on
driving conditions as winter weather impacts Pennsylvania
roadways.

Call 5 1 1 or visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway
and traffic conditions.

To report snow or ice, post to the NWS State College Facebook
page, use Twitter @NWSStateCollege, or visit weather.gov/ctp.

&&

$$

PAZ064>066-160000-
/O.EXT.KCTP.WW.Y.0014.210215T1200Z-210216T1800Z/
Adams-York-Lancaster-
Including the cities of Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster
430 AM EST Mon Feb 15 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING
TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total sleet accumulations
  of less than one-half inch and ice accumulations of up to two 
  tenths of an inch.

* WHERE...Lancaster, York and Adams Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 AM this morning to 1 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact parts of the Monday evening and Tuesday
  morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Occasional light sleet or freezing rain is
  expected today. The heaviest ice is expected later this evening
  through tonight. Precipitation may change to rain early 
  Tuesday morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania
Turnpike Commission remind motorists to adjust speeds based on
driving conditions as winter weather impacts Pennsylvania
roadways.

Call 5 1 1 or visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway
and traffic conditions.

To report snow or ice, post to the NWS State College Facebook
page, use Twitter @NWSStateCollege, or visit weather.gov/ctp.

&&

$$

PAZ012-017>019-041-042-045-046-160000-
/O.CON.KCTP.WW.Y.0014.210215T1200Z-210216T1800Z/
Northern Clinton-Clearfield-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-
Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-
Including the cities of Renovo, DuBois, Clearfield, Philipsburg, 
State College, Trout Run, Laporte, Lock Haven, and Williamsport
430 AM EST Mon Feb 15 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS
MORNING TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
  accumulations of 2 to 5 inches and ice accumulations of up to 
  one tenth of an inch.

* WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 7 AM this morning to 1 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could impact parts of the Monday evening and 
  Tuesday morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS....A period of snow will start around mid to
  late morning and taper off this afternoon. Moderate sleet and 
  freezing rain are expected tonight into early Tuesday morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania
Turnpike Commission remind motorists to adjust speeds based on
driving conditions as winter weather impacts Pennsylvania
roadways.

Call 5 1 1 or visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway
and traffic conditions.

To report snow or ice, post to the NWS State College Facebook
page, use Twitter @NWSStateCollege, or visit weather.gov/ctp.

&&

$$

PAZ024>028-049>053-160000-
/O.CON.KCTP.WW.Y.0014.210215T1200Z-210216T1800Z/
Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-
Including the cities of Johnstown, Altoona, Huntingdon, 
Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown, Lewisburg, Selinsgrove, 
Danville, Sunbury, Shamokin, Bloomsburg, and Berwick
430 AM EST Mon Feb 15 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS
MORNING TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet 
  accumulations of up to two inches and ice accumulations of one 
  tenth to two tenths of an inch.

* WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 7 AM this morning to 1 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact parts of the Monday evening and  
  Tuesday morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A period of snow this morning will taper
  off this afternoon. Moderate sleet and freezing rain are 
  expected tonight into early Tuesday morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania
Turnpike Commission remind motorists to adjust speeds based on
driving conditions as winter weather impacts Pennsylvania
roadways.

Call 5 1 1 or visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway
and traffic conditions.

To report snow or ice, post to the NWS State College Facebook
page, use Twitter @NWSStateCollege, or visit weather.gov/ctp.

&&

$$

MS/MC

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this winter storm watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter storm watch went out at Feb 14, 3:06 PM EST, 40 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 14, 3:06 PM EST, 40 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
306 PM EST Sun Feb 14 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Winter storms will impact Central Pennsylvania and bring snow
and mixed precipitation Monday into Tuesday and Thursday into
Friday. Temperatures are forecast to remain below average into
the second half of February.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Some brightening of the sky locally as the clouds are getting
very thin over much of the CWA this aftn. Some further clearing
is possible into the evening. However, low clouds return and
also develop overhead overnight.

Complexity with tonight's forecast is just how thick the lower
clouds get. If they get thick enough over the central mtns, it
might become like last night with FZDZ developing in the upslope
flow just a few kft up. The higher/mid clouds don't arrive until
late tonight for the west and south. So, if anything falls from
the clouds early tonight, it would probably be FZDZ. CAD
situation is developing with the N/NE flow at the sfc keeping
the cold air in place. Temps might not drop past 30 in MDT, but
should be in the teens across the north.

Without much confidence in amount/coverage/duration of any FZDZ
overnight, we'll opt to just call it patchy at this time. If the
evening shift gets more certain of any accretions, they may
follow with a very short-term advy.

Snow will arrive in the wee hours over the wrn mtns. This timing
has been the expectation for a few model cycles, now. By
morning rush, the accums wouldn't be a half of an inch.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
3 pm update... Overall, a northwestward shift in the cyclone
track for the early week winter storm has continued with today's
model runs. The consequences for this across Central PA are
somewhat less snowfall, but a higher freezing rain risk for
areas near and just south of I-78 and US-22.

A shot of mostly light snow still looks to move across the
Commonwealth Monday morning to early afternoon, but with the
bulk of the steadier/heavier precipitation holding off until
later in the day and at night. Strong low to mid-level jets will
bring in much deeper moisture tomorrow night, along with
significant warming above the boundary layer. Closer to the
PA/NY border, thermal profiles still support mostly snow, with
perhaps a brief wintry mix in the pre-dawn early Tuesday. Thus,
we felt comfortable with a Winter Storm Warning for the northern
tier, with generally 6-9" of snow foreseen. Farther south,
initial snow will go over to a wintry mix of sleet and freezing
rain, with a likely change over to rain for a time in the Lower
Susquehanna Valley.

The primary uncertainties involve sleet vs. freezing rain and
how much ice accretion can thus take place over some of our
southern counties. At this time, we felt the course of least
regret was to issue a Winter Storm Watch for the potential for
localized ice accretions GTE 0.25" from the Laurel Highlands,
northeast to just north of Harrisburg, then over towards the
southern Poconos (Lebanon and Schuylkill counties). A strong
ageostrophic northerly flow and fairly cold air perched just to
our north and northeast will make it difficult for surface
readings to go above freezing in some locales across the Watch
area.

For all unmentioned locations, a Winter Weather Advisory seems
in order, for a general 2-6" of snow, along with a
sleet/freezing rain mix for a time Monday night.

Steadier precipitation should begin to wind down from southwest
to northeast, as a mid-level dry slot rotates overhead towards
daybreak Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A brief period of fair and seasonable weather for Wednesday as
upper level ridging builds into the region.

A shortwave trough digging across the Central US late Wednesday
will spread precipitation over most of eastern US. As this
trough lifts up through the Ohio River Valley, Central Pa will
likely see some type of wintry precipitation. There is
significant uncertainty in precip types and transitions with
this system. Cold air will be in place from an Arctic High set
up behind the Mon/Tues system, and model soundings have this
next system starting as snow Thursday morning for the entire
CWA. A strong southerly 850mb jet (50-60kt) moves overhead
Thursday afternoon/evening bringing lots of warmth and moisture
with it. Plus, the 12Z GFS has surface temps in the mid to upper
30s, and even in the 40s Thursday night, supporting rain as the
most likely precip type. However, the Euro is colder and keeps
the low more towards the coast where we might see a mixed
precip scenario. Regardless, it will certainly be juicy. PWATs
in the SE zones are over 1" late Thursday night, and the WPC
Day 5 QPF is over 1.5" for the same location. Heavy rain may be
a concern for our far SE counties Thursday night so we will be
watching this closely. Due to uncertainty in the track of the
low, I have some sort of mixed precip extending over the entire
CWA Thursday evening. The Northern Tier counties may stay snow
throughout the entire event, but for now the model trend is
warmer. As cold air wraps in behind the low Friday morning the
mixed precip could change back to snow for areas north and west
of the Allegheny Front, but surface temps will most likely be
too warm in the SE for that same change over. As for amounts, it
is still too early for exact numbers. Guidance is hinting that
the Central Mountains (even State College) might be a hot spot
for heavier snow, but I am skeptical due to the warmth and
likelihood of mixed precip knocking down totals. Ice may be an
issue in the SW where the cold air remains through Thursday
night, but again there is a lot of uncertainty.

After the low moves off the the north and east, a cold front
will sweep through Friday morning. A tightening pressure
gradient will allow the winds to pick up, thus I bumped up winds
Friday evening into Saturday. If there is fresh snow coupled
with the gusty winds, wind chills may be in the single digits
and below zero. Definitely something to watch as we approach
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Lower clouds are thinning, but more high clouds coming back in
from the south. Only JST is left in IFR. The MVFR deck will
continue to break up through the evening and early night.
However, a surge of llvl mstr comes up from the S after 06Z,
reaching I-80 by 09Z as a squeeze play happens over the western
mountains. The first (light) shot at snow will come to the W by
09Z and the central terminals before 12Z. This will still drag
conditions down to LIFR at many places. The SErn terminals (MDT
and LNS) will be affected the least by precip on Monday, but
could still have an IFR cig. Widespread IFR will last for most
of Monday, but there could be a lull of several hours before the
heavier precip arrives for Mon night and Tues.

Outlook...

Mon night-Tue morning...LIFR in snow/mixed precip. Sig icing
possible anywhere S of I-80.

Tues PM-Wed...IFR mainly NW, then improving to VFR/MVFR
briefly.

Thu-Fri...Restrictions likely. Wintry mix, may change to rain
SE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday
afternoon for PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-037-041-042-045-046.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Jurewicz/Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Wagner
AVIATION...Dangelo
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 14, 8:17 AM EST, 7 hours 29 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
817 AM EST Sun Feb 14 2021

PAZ024>028-033>036-049>053-056>059-063>066-151330-
Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-
Franklin-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-
Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
817 AM EST Sun Feb 14 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A wintry mix will result in travel disruptions Monday into early
Tuesday.

Another winter storm could bring additional snow and ice
accumulation Thursday into Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected today or tonight.

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-037-041-042-045-046-151330-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-
Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-
817 AM EST Sun Feb 14 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

Another winter storm could bring additional snow and ice
accumulation Thursday into Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected today or tonight.

The office that day

Everything else NWS State College, PA issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 14, 3:46 PM ESTWinter Storm WarningCTPCameron, Centre, Clearfield, Clinton, Elk, Lycoming and 5 more38 hr
Feb 14, 3:46 PM ESTWinter Weather AdvisoryCTPAdams, Bedford, Blair, Cambria, Cameron, Centre and 23 more38 hr

Nearby

Winter Storm Watches in Pennsylvania, 2021Every winter storm watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.