Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
906 PM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track north of Pennsylvania through tonight,
dragging a cold front through the area. This will result in
showers and a few thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening,
followed by cooler conditions this weekend. An upper level
trough will swing over Pennsylvania Saturday, then begin lifting
out by late in the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Radar at 01Z shows a solid line of convection preceding a cold
front, running from near KBFD to near KIDI. Strong deep layer
shear and a very impressive 0-1km shear of 35-40kts will
support a threat of severe wx and even an isolated tornado
across the Laurel Highlands through around 02Z. After that,
expect dwindling convection along front, as prefrontal boundary
layer stabilizes.

Strong large scale forcing, as inferred by model 500-300mb qvec
convergence fields, and a plume of deep moisture preceding the
front argue for going higher than NBM POPs this evening.

The cold front and associated showers should exit the eastern
counties around midnight. Post-FROPA NW flow regime sets in late
tonight with plenty of lake clouds and scattered showers over
the Allegheny Plateau.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
No changes seen for Friday in high confidence post-FROPA NW
flow regime, with plenty of lake clouds and scattered showers
expected over the Allegheny Plateau heading into the first half
of Friday. The focus for showers will be along and just ahead of
a secondary cold front, which will push through the northwest
mountains early in the day, then settle into the Laurel
Highlands by afternoon.

An upper level trough will pivot across the area Friday into
Saturday, accompanied by cooler temperatures and scattered
showers across the northern and western mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An upper level trough will pivot across the area Friday into
Saturday, accompanied by cooler temperatures and scattered
showers across the northern and western mountains.

By early next week, the focus will shift to a slow-moving area
of low pressure lifting out of the midwest. Significant
differences exist among med range guidance as to the track and
timing of this feature. However, the latest ECENS and GEFS
support a chance of rain sometime between late Sunday and late
Tuesday, with the bulk of guidance tracking the low south of Pa.
This track, combined with a surface high to the north, should
result in chilly daytime conditions early next week. Have
undercut NBM high temps based on its warm bias in cold air
damming scenarios.

Drier and seasonable conditions appear likely by the middle of
next week, as ridging builds in at the surface and aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Two lines of gusty showers and storms will move through this
evening associated with a cold front. The first line is crossing
over central PA at the time of the 0z TAF package and will
continue to move through over the next few hours. There will be
a lull after the first round of SHRA/TSRA then the second line
of gusty SHRA will move through after 0Z. Restrictions likely
in TSRA/SHRA.

Later tonight conditions will deteriorate in NW flow behind the
front at JST and BFD with low vis and cigs. Scattered
SHRA and DZ possible during the overnight hours.
Elsewhere, conditions briefly improve before going MVFR for the
day Friday. Western terminals will likely stay IFR through the
day.

Outlook...

Fri...MVFR to IFR cigs in NW flow. SHRA possible SW.

Sat...Conditions gradually improving to VFR. SHRA possible NW.

Sun...AM valley fog. SHRA possible SW.

Mon-Tue...Restrictions in SHRA and low cigs.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Guseman/DeVoir/RXR
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald/RXR
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/Gartner
AVIATION...Wagner

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
337 PM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021

PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018-024-033-221945-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Cambria-Somerset-
337 PM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms containing gusty west to
southwest winds are possible this late this afternoon and this
evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-
221945-
Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-
Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-
Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-
Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
337 PM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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