Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
731 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Sweltering to dangerously hot conditions will last through
Friday. The hot and humid weather pattern will fuel rounds of
scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this evening and again
Friday afternoon. Relief from the oppressive heat will arrive
over the weekend with more pleasant conditions expected behind a
cold front. A heavy rain threat is possible into the middle of
next week in association with Fred.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
Quick evening update. Extended SVR Watch #431 for two hours
over western and central areas, and shaved 6 of my southeast
counties from the Watch as trigger will be lacking for severe
storms over the Lower Susq.

Marginally severe storms tracking into WC Mountains and Laurel
Highlands. Propagation is now bringing a discernible right turn
as we anticipated, and as storms weaken from the peak diurnal
intensity. Additional lines of storms, some still possibly severe,
will track over the aforementioned areas, with coverage and
intensity decreasing substantially east of I-99 and north of
I-80 heading through late evening and then fades into the wee
hours of Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Heat advisory and excessive heat warning remains in effect for Friday
afternoon based on fcst max heat indices of 100-105F across much
of the southeast half of the CWA.

A few strong to severe storms with locally damaging wind gusts
will be possible again Friday afternoon within a similar
convective environment (weak vertical shear/strong conditional
instability).

The main cold front is not progged to clear southern PA until
Saturday night, so a chance of t-storms will continue in this
area on Saturday. A 24hrMaxTChange of ~10 degrees is fcst to
start the weekend (mid 70s north to mid 80s southeast) which
will put a nice dent into the recent heat wave. Refreshingly
cool/drier (less humid) air will continue to be directly into
CPA via northerly flow finally setting up a very comfortable
Saturday night with minTs ranging from around 50F in the north
to the lower 60s in the southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure builds overhead for the remainder of the weekend.
Sunday will be a gorgeous day with seasonable and below-
average high temperatures, low humidity, and mostly clear skies.
Enjoy it while it lasts as the nice conditions will not last
for long.

Temperatures next week will be relatively pleasant, as they will
stay mostly in the 70s and the lower 80s with persistent cloud
cover. However, dewpoints will be in the 60s and 70s,
contributing to very muggy conditions nearly all week long.
There is a chance for daily rain showers and thunderstorms next
week with a northward surge of moisture from the remnants of
Fred.

The Euro and the GFS have wildly different solutions on how they
handle the progression of the remnants of Fred next week. The
Euro brings Fred remnants straight to central PA, which could
contribute to enhanced rainfall for the mid/end of next week.
The GFS, however, does not bring Fred remnants to our CWA,
disintegrating Fred long before it gets close to PA. Regardless
of these different solutions, both models indicate a surge of
moisture coming in from the south. Expect muggy and wet
conditions with relatively mild temperatures next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Line of convection across west central PA moving east at 00Z.
This line will hold together as it approaches KJST...KAOO...KUNV
and KIPT before diminishing in coverage and intensity with the
lost of heating.

Outside of the convection look for VFR flying, though patchy
fog is possible again tonight, especially in areas that see
rainfall today. Look for more convection moving west to east
again on Friday.

Outlook...

Fri-Sat...Scattered tsra impacts possible.

Sun...Dry conditions with mainly VFR conditions.

Mon...Scattered PM tsra impacts possible.

Tue...Widespread shra/tsra.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A daily record rainfall of 1.27 inches was set at Harrisburg
yesterday (8/11/21). This broke the previous record of 0.91
inches set in 2015.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM EDT Friday for PAZ026>028-035-
036-046-049>053-056-058-063.
Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 7 PM EDT Friday for PAZ057-
059-064>066.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Steinbugl/Gartner
NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Steinbugl/Colbert
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl/Gartner
LONG TERM...Gutierrez
AVIATION...Ross/Gartner
CLIMATE...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
719 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

PAZ057-059-064>066-132330-
Dauphin-Lebanon-Adams-York-Lancaster-
719 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Excessive Heat Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ056-058-063-132330-
Perry-Schuylkill-Cumberland-
719 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

In addition to the heat, a few strong to severe storms with locally
damaging wind gusts will be possible Friday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ017>019-024-025-033-034-045-132330-
Clearfield-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Somerset-
Bedford-Southern Clinton-
719 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 431 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ026>028-035-036-046-049>053-132330-
Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Fulton-Franklin-Southern Lycoming-Union-
Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-
719 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 431 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ010>012-041-042-132330-
Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-
719 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 431 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ004>006-037-132330-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Tioga-
719 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
747 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

PAZ017>019-025-130015-
Northern Centre PA-Clearfield PA-Blair PA-Southern Centre PA-
747 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern
Clearfield, Centre and northeastern Blair Counties through 815 PM
EDT...

At 746 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Lecontes Mills to North Philipsburg to near
Houtzdale. Movement was east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
State College, Bellefonte, Tyrone, Park Forest Village, Boalsburg,
Pleasant Gap, Philipsburg, Stormstown, Lemont, Bald Eagle, Zion,
Houserville, Pine Grove Mills, Centre Hall, Osceola Mills, Milesburg,
Chester Hill, Ramblewood, Karthaus and Houtzdale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
central Pennsylvania.

&&

LAT...LON 4110 7772 4084 7756 4075 7762 4072 7771
      4073 7772 4072 7777 4074 7783 4069 7794
      4074 7811 4068 7822 4073 7833 4073 7840
      4093 7829 4113 7823
TIME...MOT...LOC 2346Z 280DEG 49KT 4106 7829 4093 7821 4079 7831

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Banghoff/Gartner