Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1152 AM EDT Wed Jul 21 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front is sweeping through central Pennsylvania,
producing scattered showers and thunderstorms. Behind the
front, cooler and refreshingly less humid conditions are
expected for the rest of the work week before heat and humidity
make a comeback for the weekend. Rain chances will also increase
by late Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
A couple of tall storms along a line of generally shallow
convection have poked up through the early morning cap to get
near-severe. The storms appear to be just ahead of the front,
but the northwest wind is developing behind the line of
convection now. SPC Meso Disco has already targeted the SErn
third/quarter of the CWA for a high poss of a svr tstm watch. So
far, no inter-office coordination on that course of action yet.
The high dewpoints to the SE of the line of convection are great
fuel. Sct SHRA and perhaps isolated TSRA are still possible
behind this first line, as some convection is popping up near
BFD, along what is perhaps the real dry air. However, that
convection is less-likely to make lightning and certainly to
become severe as it is separated by a far distance from the best
moisture.

Prev...
5h trough digging southward over the eastern GLAKS this morning,
pushing a sfc cold front into central PA. At 11z, a prefrontal
trof was extending from the Mohawk Valley to the Pocono Plateau
southwestward to the MD panhandle. Sfc cold front appears to be
extend from near KBGM to near KPBZ presently. Areas of river
valley fog will lift by 13z in most places.

Isolated -shra/tsra traversing the NC Mountains early this
morning. More widespread convection will redevelop later this
morning as aforementioned front pushes eastward and 5h trof
continues to dig over the eastern GLAKS and western PA/NY. Good
surge of low PW air arrives behind the trof later today and
tonight...something to look forward to. Thermo profiles
supportive of moderate MLCAPES by early afternoon over my
southeast, and there may be a couple buildups capable of
marginal wind gusts, with ambient environment providing 1500
J/kg MLCAPE and DCAPE of 800-900 J/kg. However, it appears the
main svr threat is east of my area. Locally heavy downpours may
accompany storms over the Middle to Lower Susq, with the
recently wet areas of the northeast needing to be watched given
low FFG values. Progressive storm motions mean this is a lower
end flood threat however.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Cooler and drier air mass builds across the central PA tonight
and Thursday with comfortable humidity and river valley fog
confined to the deepest northern valleys. Mins will range from
near 50 over the north to the lower 60s south.

High pressure will build in from the Ohio Valley on Thursday,
bringing plenty of sunshine and mild temperatures ranging from
the mid 70s in the north to the mid 80s in southern PA.
Dewpoints in the 50s will feel quite refreshing.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A warm front will slowly approach from the west beginning on
Fri, bringing with it a slight chance of showers and storms to
the NW. The warm front will advance across the rest of PA on
Saturday, again bringing a chance for isolated showers and
storms, but very dry midlevel air will keep coverage limited and
widespread rainfall does not appear likely.

Moisture will flow back into the area on Sunday, with dewpoints
rising to 65-70F and temperatures returning to the 80-90F range.
Increased moisture and instability along with a weak disturbance
aloft will likely lead to more widespread showers/storms Sun
afternoon and evening.

Warm and humid conditions will continue into early next week
with a chance for additional rounds of showers and storms as
weak upper shortwave troughs pivot around a large ridge of high
pressure set up over the central US.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Expect improving cigs across the Allegheny Plateau later
today, as drier air arrives on northwest flow. Model soundings
and ensemble prob charts support widespread VFR conditions by
Wed afternoon. However, can't rule out a gusty tstorm forming on
exiting cold front across central and southeast PA sometime
between 16-18Z.

Outlook...

Thu...AM valley fog possible W Mtns.

Fri...No sig wx expected.

Sat...Late day tsra impacts possible, mainly west.

Sun...AM low cigs possible W Mtns. PM tsra impacts possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Banghoff
NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Dangelo/Colbert/Wagner
SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Colbert/Wagner
LONG TERM...Colbert/Travis
AVIATION...Fitzgerald/Gutierrez

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
1158 AM EDT Wed Jul 21 2021

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>035-037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056-221600-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-
Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-
1158 AM EDT Wed Jul 21 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ036-057>059-063>066-221600-
Franklin-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
1158 AM EDT Wed Jul 21 2021

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 385 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1206 PM EDT Wed Jul 21 2021

PAZ036-063-064-211630-
Adams PA-Franklin PA-Cumberland PA-
1206 PM EDT Wed Jul 21 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF ADAMS...FRANKLIN...AND
CUMBERLAND COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 PM EDT...

At 1205 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Scotland, moving southeast at 15 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Shippensburg, Fayetteville and Scotland.

LAT...LON 4000 7765 4007 7758 3997 7730 3983 7750
TIME...MOT...LOC 1605Z 312DEG 14KT 4000 7757

Banghoff

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1222 PM EDT Wed Jul 21 2021

PAZ057-059-211700-
Lebanon PA-Dauphin PA-
1222 PM EDT Wed Jul 21 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF LEBANON AND DAUPHIN
COUNTIES UNTIL 100 PM EDT...

At 1222 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Skyline View, moving east at 25 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lebanon, Hershey, Palmyra, Linglestown, Annville, Skyline View,
Campbelltown, Pleasant Hill, Cleona, Timber Hills, Lawn, Penn
National Race Course, Harper Tavern and Hershey Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4035 7680 4042 7676 4039 7643 4022 7649
      4021 7653 4021 7654
TIME...MOT...LOC 1622Z 281DEG 20KT 4037 7671

Banghoff

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1228 PM EDT Wed Jul 21 2021

PAZ028-050-052-056>058-211700-
Perry PA-Northumberland PA-Juniata PA-Dauphin PA-Snyder PA-
Schuylkill PA-
1228 PM EDT Wed Jul 21 2021

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF PERRY...
NORTHUMBERLAND...JUNIATA...DAUPHIN...SNYDER...AND SCHUYLKILL COUNTIES
UNTIL 100 PM EDT...

At 1227 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from near Rebuck to near Port Trevorton to near
Meiserville. Movement was southeast at 25 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Millersburg, Trevorton, Lykens, Elizabethville, Williamstown, Tower
City, Port Trevorton, Klingerstown, Rebuck, Meiserville, Leck Kill,
Urban, Liverpool, Wiconisco, Hegins, Gratz, Dalmatia, Muir,
Berrysburg and Herndon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4056 7654 4047 7668 4047 7692 4059 7706
      4068 7710 4070 7692 4080 7684 4073 7641
TIME...MOT...LOC 1627Z 302DEG 20KT 4075 7681 4064 7688 4064 7703

Banghoff

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1231 PM EDT Wed Jul 21 2021

PAZ036-064-211700-
Adams PA-Franklin PA-
1231 PM EDT Wed Jul 21 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF ADAMS AND FRANKLIN
COUNTIES UNTIL 100 PM EDT...

At 1231 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Fayetteville, moving southeast at 25 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Gettysburg, Guilford, Carroll Valley, Fayetteville, Lake Heritage,
Cashtown, Orrtanna, Arendtsville, Fairfield, McKnightstown,
Gettysburg National Military Park, Liberty Mountain Resort,
Gettysburg College and Penn State Mont Alto.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3991 7760 3997 7739 3984 7713 3972 7733
      3972 7744
TIME...MOT...LOC 1631Z 302DEG 20KT 3989 7751

Banghoff

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1238 PM EDT Wed Jul 21 2021

PAZ058-211730-
Schuylkill PA-
1238 PM EDT Wed Jul 21 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF SCHUYLKILL COUNTY UNTIL
130 PM EDT...

At 1238 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Mcadoo, moving southeast at 25 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Tamaqua, Mcadoo, Hometown, Tuscarora, Grier City-Park Crest, Delano,
McKeansburg, Coaldale, Snyders, Deer Lake, Kelayres, Middleport, Port
Clinton, New Ringgold, Mary-D, Brockton, Trenton and Park Place.

LAT...LON 4070 7581 4063 7600 4057 7602 4058 7604
      4057 7606 4058 7607 4093 7611 4090 7604
      4091 7600 4081 7589 4074 7576
TIME...MOT...LOC 1638Z 336DEG 22KT 4091 7605

Travis

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1255 PM EDT Wed Jul 21 2021

PAZ057>059-211730-
Lebanon PA-Dauphin PA-Schuylkill PA-
1255 PM EDT Wed Jul 21 2021

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF LEBANON...DAUPHIN...AND
SCHUYLKILL COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM EDT...

At 1255 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from near Tower City to near Elizabethville. Movement
was southeast at 20 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Linglestown, Valley View, Millersburg, Pine Grove, Lykens,
Elizabethville, Williamstown, Fredericksburg, Tower City,
Klingerstown, Lickdale, Fort Indiantown Gap, Penn National Race
Course, Dehart Dam, Wiconisco, Halifax, Hegins, Gratz, Ravine and
Muir.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4052 7626 4052 7634 4049 7644 4045 7638
      4035 7685 4057 7699 4060 7695 4061 7690
      4061 7689 4062 7689 4070 7656 4053 7622
TIME...MOT...LOC 1655Z 314DEG 18KT 4064 7656 4057 7686

Banghoff