Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
559 PM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A mid and upper level trough extending from Southern Quebec
Canada into Eastern PA will create a northwesterly flow of dry
but much warmer air today and Tuesday.

A few weak weather systems will move across the area today and
Tuesday bringing a chance for a few showers across northern PA
and perhaps even a thunderstorm.

This trough is forecast to linger over the area for much of the
week, bringing a much drier week and less humidity then
previous weeks.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
North to south moving showers are affecting the eastern forecast
area this afternoon...generally along a Route 15 line. A few
lightning strikes have occurred in Lycoming county. Expect these
to continue through the daylight hours, remaining generally east
of a Coudersport to State College to Breezewood line. The
showers are moving quickly so do not expect any water issues in
Tioga county with their low FFG values.

After the showers and clouds diminish this evening, look for
partly cloudy skies areawide along with a trend to
light/variable wind that will help to produce patchy valley fog
once again with little impact.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Tuesday should be the warmest and most humid day off the week
with just a slight chance of a mid to late afternoon shower or
thunderstorms across the northern tier counties of the state.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Persistent upper-level troughing with a mean west-northwest
flow aloft will bring a series of shortwaves and associated cold
fronts across central PA from the midweek into next weekend.
The first of these shortwaves is projected to pass through early
Wednesday, with additional shortwave passages expected Friday
and again next Sunday.

Each shortwave will be accompanied by a chance of showers and
thunderstorms, but lower PWATs (available deep moisture) than
we've seen lately should keep the probability of heavy rainfall
relatively low. Latest guidance supports seasonably warm
temperatures through next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Scattered thunderstorms will continue to fire across the
Susquehanna Valley through early evening, producing brief,
localized vis reductions and gusty winds in a few spots.
Elsewhere, confidence in VFR conditions is high from KUNV/KAOO
westward.

Any thunderstorms across the Susq Valley should diminish
quickly around sunset. The focus will then shift toward
developing valley fog overnight. Conditions will be most
favorable for fog formation across the northwest part of the
state, where winds will become calm the earliest, and also where
the ground is wettest across the Susquehanna Valley. In these
locations, valley fog is possible by around 03Z and could
become dense late tonight.

Any valley fog will quickly burn off Tuesday morning, leaving
widespread VFR conds under a hazy sky. A stray late-day shower
or tstorm is possible across far northern PA, associated with an
approaching cold front.

Outlook...

Wed...Scattered SHRA and PM TSRA.
Thurs...Generally VFR.
Fri...Scattered PM SHRA/TSRA.
Sat...Generally VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Lambert
NEAR TERM...Tyburski
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Tyburski
LONG TERM...Evanego
AVIATION...Fitzgerald/Evanego

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
435 AM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-200845-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-
Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-
Adams-York-Lancaster-
435 AM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
644 PM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021

PAZ019-027-028-192315-
Juniata PA-Mifflin PA-Southern Centre PA-
644 PM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF JUNIATA...MIFFLIN...AND
SOUTHERN CENTRE COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

At 643 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from Poe Valley State Park to near Reeds Gap State
Park. Movement was south at 10 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Alfarata, Belltown, Poe Valley State Park, Reeds Gap State Park,
Wagner and Siglerville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4055 7735 4069 7753 4089 7753 4080 7735
TIME...MOT...LOC 2243Z 351DEG 9KT 4081 7747 4074 7744

Banghoff

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
658 PM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021

PAZ019-045-192315-
Southern Clinton PA-Southern Centre PA-
658 PM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF SOUTHERN CLINTON AND
SOUTHERN CENTRE COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

At 658 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Mackeyville, moving south at 10 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lamar, Millheim, Aaronsburg, Rebersburg, Madisonburg and Mackeyville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4108 7756 4108 7747 4088 7741 4086 7756
TIME...MOT...LOC 2258Z 351DEG 9KT 4105 7751

Banghoff

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
705 PM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021

PAZ019-192315-
Southern Centre PA-
705 PM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF SOUTHERN CENTRE COUNTY
UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

At 705 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Spring Mills, moving south at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Spring Mills and Seven Mountains.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4087 7762 4086 7756 4077 7755 4076 7760
      4076 7762
TIME...MOT...LOC 2305Z 353DEG 17KT 4082 7758

Banghoff

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
715 PM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021

PAZ019-027-192345-
Mifflin PA-Southern Centre PA-
715 PM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF MIFFLIN AND SOUTHERN
CENTRE COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM EDT...

At 715 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from Potters Mills to Reeds Gap State Park. Movement
was south at 15 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Burnham, Milroy, Yeagertown, Reedsville, Alfarata, Potters Mills,
Belltown, Seven Mountains, Reeds Gap State Park, Maitland and
Siglerville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4068 7768 4069 7769 4086 7763 4078 7738
      4063 7745 4062 7748 4060 7750
TIME...MOT...LOC 2315Z 011DEG 11KT 4081 7760 4074 7747

Banghoff

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
742 PM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021

PAZ027-028-200000-
Juniata PA-Mifflin PA-
742 PM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF JUNIATA AND MIFFLIN
COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM EDT...

At 742 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from near Seven Mountains to near Alfarata. Movement
was south at 15 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lewistown, Burnham, Belleville, Milroy, Highland Park, Yeagertown,
Reedsville, Juniata Terrace, Alfarata, Walnut, Seven Mountains,
Maitland and Barrville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4063 7775 4068 7768 4069 7769 4068 7770
      4070 7770 4072 7768 4073 7768 4075 7765
      4067 7742 4051 7749
TIME...MOT...LOC 2342Z 018DEG 11KT 4073 7768 4063 7746

Banghoff

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
800 PM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021

PAZ027-200015-
Mifflin PA-
800 PM EDT Mon Jul 19 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF MIFFLIN COUNTY UNTIL
815 PM EDT...

At 759 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Reedsville, moving south at 15 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Belleville and Barrville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4061 7775 4064 7774 4068 7768 4069 7769
      4068 7770 4069 7771 4073 7768 4072 7761
      4058 7762
TIME...MOT...LOC 2359Z 011DEG 11KT 4068 7767

Banghoff