Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
249 PM EDT Wed Jul 14 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A shortwave will push eastward through Pennsylvania by tonight,
then high pressure will build into the state for Thursday. A
slow moving cold front will slowly push south through the
region this weekend, bringing a return to unsettled muggy and
showery conditions through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Weakly sheared environment across central PA is limiting
convective development as a mid level shortwave and ribbon of
of 20-25 kts at 500 mb propagates eastward through the Middle to
Lower Susq River Valley. One cell has produced sustained
lightning flashes and a few strikes, and a brief bowing
signature that couldn't be maintained due to lacking wind shear.
Isold to sct shra and isold T (east) will persist through early
evening with generally light amounts.

Clearing skies and light wind associated with arrival of surface
ridge axis should once again promote areas of valley fog late
tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A much needed (mostly) dry day is in store for central PA on
Thursday, thanks to continued sfc/aloft ridging. Deep layer
moisture will be lower than it's been the last several days,
with a slightly more comfortable air mass as well, thanks to
dewpoints running in the mid to upper 60s vs the 70s we've been
seeing. However, can't rule out an isolated late PM tstorm over
the northwest in association with falling heights and low level
moisture return ahead of upstream trough over the Grt Lks.
Mostly sunny skies and ensemble mean 850mb temps near 17C should
support highs ranging from the low 80s to low 90s from
northwest to southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Models are in fairly good agreement through the long range as
the active weather continues. An upper-level trough will slowly
approach from the west in the Friday/Saturday timeframe. This
will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the area
Friday, Saturday, and Sunday as the cold front will be slow to
progress through the region. The cold front should move through
by the end of Sunday.

Meanwhile, an strong upper-level ridge will be forming over the
west USA during the end of the weekend. By the beginning of
next week, a strong omega-block pattern will be in place and we
will be under the influence of lower heights and a more
unsettled air mass. This will contribute to more daily chances
of showers and thunderstorms, at least into the midweek. At this
point, the omega-block pattern does not seem to break. Lowered
temperatures/dewpoints Tuesday and on as we will be under the
influence of cold air advection from the omega-block pattern.

Prev...
The upper- level trough is very slow to move out of the region,
and more chances for afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms return for the weekend. Models are producing a
slow- moving cold front that will move NW to SE over the region
during the weekend. Warm, moist air will continue to be
plentiful into the weekend. Flooding will still remain a concern
for areas that have received heavy rainfall from previous
storms as the ground is already saturated.

We may see some relief from the active weather early next week
(Tuesday at this point) as drier air moves in from the north
and surface high pressure builds in.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Isolated to scattered t-storms will continue to develop with a
few severe storms with localized damaging wind gusts possible in
the eastern 1/3 of the airspace. Convection should fade after
00Z Thu with VFR heading into the first part of tonight.
Clearing skies and light winds should prove favorable for fog
formation late tonight into early Thursday morning. We were keen
to introduce VCFG or 2-4SM visibility into the final FM groups
with the 14/12Z TAF issuance. Fog may be locally dense with
vis/cigs trending down toward airfield minimums at some sites.
After the fog burns off in the morning, Thursday should lend
itself to VFR conditions at most airfields, with a possible
isolated thunderstorm in the far northwest.

Outlook...

Fri-Mon...Isolated to scattered P.M. showers/t-storms.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Fitzgerald
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald
LONG TERM...Gutierrez
AVIATION...Steinbugl/Gutierrez

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
500 AM EDT Wed Jul 14 2021

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>036-045-150900-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Southern Clinton-
500 AM EDT Wed Jul 14 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ037-041-042-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-150900-
Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-
Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-
Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
500 AM EDT Wed Jul 14 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will develop over the area this afternoon,
possibly producing damaging wind gusts in a few locations.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
134 PM EDT WED JUL 14 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 ENE WARRIORS MARK     40.72N 78.06W
07/13/2021                   HUNTINGDON         PA   PUBLIC

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN (BROKEN OR UPROOTED)
            ALONG DRY HOLLOW RD NEAR THE
            CENTRE/HUNTINGDON COUNTY BORDER.

&&

JRB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
149 PM EDT Wed Jul 14 2021

PAZ056-063-141815-
Perry PA-Cumberland PA-
149 PM EDT Wed Jul 14 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF PERRY AND CUMBERLAND
COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM EDT...

At 148 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Shermansdale, moving east at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Harrisburg, Lower Allen, Mechanicsburg, Camp Hill, New Cumberland,
Enola, Lemoyne, Schlusser, Wormleysburg, Marysville, Shiremanstown,
Duncannon, West Fairview, New Bloomfield, New Kingstown, Wertzville,
Hogestown, Carlisle Springs, Shermansdale and City Island.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4025 7731 4034 7730 4041 7723 4045 7698
      4042 7702 4037 7702 4036 7700 4036 7694
      4032 7691 4029 7692 4022 7686 4021 7689
      4023 7690 4021 7690 4020 7694
TIME...MOT...LOC 1748Z 264DEG 32KT 4034 7711

Colbert

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
408 PM EDT Wed Jul 14 2021

PAZ056-063-142045-
Perry PA-Cumberland PA-
408 PM EDT Wed Jul 14 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF PERRY AND CUMBERLAND
COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

At 408 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Colonel Denning State Park, moving east at 25 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Carlisle, Bloserville, Colonel Denning State Park, Loysville,
Shermansdale and Landisburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4025 7751 4038 7749 4036 7716 4021 7721
TIME...MOT...LOC 2008Z 273DEG 22KT 4029 7740

Colbert

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
645 PM EDT WED JUL 14 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0638 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WSW BELLWOOD          40.59N 78.40W
07/13/2021                   BLAIR              PA   PUBLIC

            MULTIPLE TREES SNAPPED AND UPROOTED AT THE
            RIGGLES GAP SPORTSMEN CLUB.

&&

ST

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
652 PM EDT Wed Jul 14 2021

PAZ046-142315-
Southern Lycoming PA-
652 PM EDT Wed Jul 14 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF SOUTHERN LYCOMING
COUNTY UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

At 652 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Jersey Shore, moving southeast at 15 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph are possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Williamsport, Duboistown and Collomsville around 715 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Garden View, Oval and
South Williamsport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4130 7701 4118 7703 4111 7719 4123 7729
      4128 7720 4131 7712
TIME...MOT...LOC 2252Z 302DEG 13KT 4125 7719

Dangelo