Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
531 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern
tier of central Pennsylvania this evening. A couple of passing
showers or brief thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon.
The weather pattern will dry out for midweek with noticeably
cooler nights and less humidity. Temperatures will trend warmer
into the weekend with showers and storms likely Friday into
Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
*Severe Thunderstorm Watch #269 remains in effect until 6PM EDT
 for a portion of south central PA
*Severe Thunderstorm Watch #270 remains in effect until 9PM EDT
 for a portion of east-central PA

5PM/21Z: Strong/severe storm threat has shifted south of I-80
and have cleared all northern zones out of watch 269/270. Recent
trends indicate a lull in intensity with strongest storms in the
Laurel Highlands.

Most likely area of potential severe storms appears to be along
and southeast of I-81/78 corridor in the next few hours. Vis sat
shows outflow boundary near KLNS that may be a focus. The SPC
mesoanalysis shows a narrow zone of modest instability with
dewpoints mainly in the 55-60F range. Much higher dewpoints
are not too far away in extreme southeast York/Lancaster County
to the north/east of the Chesapeake Bay. There is still plenty
of effective bulk shear (~50kt) and low level lapse rates have
steepened to 8-8.5 C/km. Recent radar trends are not showing an
uptick in intensity yet, so we are continuing to monitor the
area but the primary threat may be getting squeezed to
south/east of the MD line toward I-95.

Shortwave pivoting across the Appalachians should prolong shower
activity over the southeast zones into early tonight. Showers
should clear the CWA after midnight with clearing skies allowing
for some patchy valley fog to develop into early Tuesday
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Mid level thermal trough crossing the state Tuesday, combined
with the passage of a secondary cold front, should spark some
scattered-numerous late morning/afternoon showers and perhaps a
few low-topped t-storms over northeast PA. Max temps in the
70-80F range be a few to several degrees cooler overall vs.
Monday's highs.

Any convection should fade by sunset along with diurnal cu.
Clearing skies and dewpoints in the 40s/50s will make for a
relatively cool/refreshing evening and overnight with lows
dropping into the mid 40s NW to mid 50s SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Clearing skies and quite chilly temps are in store for Tuesday
night with mins well down into the 40s across the NW mtns, and
low to mid 50s in the Central and Southern Valleys.

Fair and cool weather Wednesday and Thursday, as Canadian high
pressure builds in from the Great Lakes. Expect low humidity,
mainly clear skies and temperatures averaging a few degrees
below average, with Thursday morning potentially quite chilly
directly under the surface high. Went below guidance a few
degrees. Moderating temperatures are expected by late in the
week, as the high passes off the coast and a return southwest
flow develops.

Increasing model spread/forecast uncertainty noted by next
weekend regarding timing of a cold front. The prospects for
showers appear relatively high with this feature, given strong
forcing ahead of a deep upper trough. However, will keep POPs
close to 40 pct due to timing uncertainty. ECENS and GEFS plumes
indicate the best chance of showers/tstorms could be anywhere
between Friday evening and Saturday evening.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Second round of SHRA/TSRA moving through central PA. Lowered
flight category to IFR for a short time at KUNV with a return to
MVFR/VFR after about 30 minutes. The only other airfield to have
a bout with rain will be KJST early this evening.

Dry air in place over southeast PA with dewpoints in the 50s at
KMDT and KLNS. This should help diminish the intensity of any
storms entering that area this evening.

Expect some showers to linger overnight, with MVFR and perhaps
IFR conditions.

Tuesday will feature another upper level trough, but is expected
to be less active, given more dry air in place.

Outlook...

Wed-Thu...No sig wx expected.

Fri...Mainly dry.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Watson/Gartner
AVIATION...Martin/Tyburski

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
501 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

PAZ028-036-056>059-063>066-152115-
Juniata-Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-
York-Lancaster-
501 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 270 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ024>027-033>035-152115-
Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-
501 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 269 IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-152115-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-
Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-
501 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
424 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

PAZ025-142045-
Blair PA-
424 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF BLAIR COUNTY UNTIL 445
PM EDT...

At 424 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Loretto, moving southeast at 40 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Altoona, Hollidaysburg, Lakemont, Williamsburg, Duncansville, Canoe
Creek State Park, Royer, Newry, Peoples Natural Gas Field, Lakemont
Park And Island Waterpark and Penn State Altoona.

LAT...LON 4042 7856 4043 7855 4044 7856 4045 7856
      4042 7847 4060 7839 4052 7815 4050 7815
      4032 7828
TIME...MOT...LOC 2024Z 293DEG 36KT 4054 7859

KF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
428 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0321 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NE TURBOTVILLE        41.12N 76.75W
06/14/2021                   NORTHUMBERLAND     PA   UTILITY COMPANY

            TREES DOWN ON WIRES.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
443 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

PAZ025-026-142130-
Blair PA-Huntingdon PA-
443 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF BLAIR AND HUNTINGDON
COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

At 442 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Altoona, moving east at 45 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Altoona, Lakemont, Bellwood, Williamsburg, Spruce Creek, Horseshoe
Curve, Sinking Valley, Canoe Creek State Park, McConnellstown,
Petersburg, Alexandria, Peoples Natural Gas Field, Penn State Altoona
and Lakemont Park And Island Waterpark.

LAT...LON 4047 7850 4054 7849 4060 7844 4062 7844
      4061 7804 4041 7806
TIME...MOT...LOC 2042Z 270DEG 37KT 4053 7838

GUSEMAN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
444 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

PAZ033-142100-
Somerset PA-
444 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF SOMERSET COUNTY UNTIL
500 PM EDT...

At 444 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Somerset, moving southeast at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Somerset, Berlin, Friedens, Indian Lake and Shanksville.

LAT...LON 4000 7923 4010 7912 4002 7879 3990 7884
      3984 7896
TIME...MOT...LOC 2044Z 293DEG 32KT 4000 7908

KF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
504 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

PAZ033-034-142130-
Bedford PA-Somerset PA-
504 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF BEDFORD AND SOMERSET
COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

At 504 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Berlin, moving southeast at 40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Berlin, Lake Gordon, Hyndman, Ellerslie, Shanksville and Rainsburg.

LAT...LON 3992 7904 4003 7893 3989 7849 3972 7874
      3972 7878
TIME...MOT...LOC 2104Z 297DEG 34KT 3991 7888

KF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
549 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

PAZ033-142215-
Somerset PA-
549 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 549 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Farmington, moving southeast at 35 mph.

Pea size hail are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ursina, Mount Davis, Confluence, Salisbury and Addison.

LAT...LON 3972 7938 3973 7941 3976 7940 3977 7938
      3978 7939 3979 7938 3978 7935 3980 7937
      3982 7937 3985 7941 3973 7897 3972 7896
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 297DEG 32KT 3979 7946

GUSEMAN