Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1222 PM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Very warm and humid conditions will continue to fuel daily rounds
of mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms through
Thursday. Locally heavy rainfall is possible and may result in
isolated flooding. Expect relief from the heat and humidity with
relatively cooler to more seasonable temperatures forecast
Friday into the weekend. The precipitation pattern will remain
unsettled with a chance of showers and a few storms into early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
Near term grids are in decent shape. Did increase the POPs for
showers and QPF values acrs the Central and Northern counties of
PA this afternoon along and ahead of a mid-level short wave
lifting NE across the region. Primary lift and llvl theta-e
pooling for organized/heavier convection has been confined to
the Poconos and Endless Mtns of NEPA so far. However, some
backward/southwestward development of this convection is
possible within the best gradient of sfc based CAPE - near the
western edge of the 2500 J/KG values.

Otherwise, expect another muggy day with clouds associated with
the aforementioned short wave lifting NE and breaking for some
increasing afternoon sunshine. Convection will expand in the
form of scattered-numerous brief showers and isolated pulse tsra
with brief heavy rain across the Susq Valley and pts east, and
possibly across the far NW too where the SE/inland extent of the
Lake Erie breeze convection will be found.

Locally heavy downpours are the main concern although the risk
of isolated flooding remains very low. Weak winds aloft and
0-6km shear below 20kts indicates convection should be of the
pulse variety, with little risk of severe weather (non- severe
t-storms).

The wettest (3-hr max) HREF members indicate the possibility of
point amounts between 2-3 inches with the highest neighborhood
probs of QPF>1" over the eastern 1/2 of the CWA. The odds of
exceeding FFG remains low and the western part of the D1 WPC
ERO has been adjusted back through our NE zones with the 15Z
update.

Forecast maxTs will be about -2F to -5F lower than yesterday
with max HX values in the low 90s across the mid/lower Susq.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Warm and muggy again tonight with fcst minTs in the mid 60s to
low 70s or +10-20F above climo mean. Convective coverage should
fade after dark, but could ramp up a bit over the southwest
zones later tonight into early Wednesday morning.

PWs remain high through midweek and the steering flow is still
weak overall. While locally heavy downpours are probable, the
hires guidance does not signal a coherent QPF pattern with low
predictability in the placement of max rainfall. A mid/upper low
should help to provide a enhanced lift to support greater
convective coverage as it tracks slowly through the OH Valley
toward PA by the end of the period. WPC shifted the D2 MRGL ERO
generally south of the MD line, but included the srn tier zones
in the new D3 ERO for Thursday. Localized heavy rainfall and
isolated flooding will remain the primary hazards.

MaxTs are fcst to peak on Wednesday before trending lower into
late week. Thursday MaxT is currently about -3 to -6 degrees
lower vs. Wed. Plenty of clouds and rounds of showers along with
a shift in the wind to a northerly then easterly component
supports aforementioned trend of lower highs. Backdoor cold
front sinks south across CPA by 12Z Friday which allows some
relatively cooler and drier air to spill into the northeast
zones. This will set the stage for a noticeably cooler end to
the week.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Ensemble plumes indicate many parts of the area will struggle
to get out of the 60s Friday under thick overcast and periods of
rain.

Drier and seasonable conditions look likely Saturday, as the
wave of low pressure exits the Mid Atlantic coast. Beyond that,
model spread/forecast uncertainty increases. All guidance
indicates an upper trough will swing southeast across the region
late in the forecast period. However, timing and strength of
this feature remain uncertain. Taking the middle ground for now
with the chance of showers/tstorms both Sunday and Monday.
However, no washout expected either day.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A mid level shortwave trough moving into western PA late this
morning is producing a band of light to moderate rain showers,
which will advance northeastward through mid to late morning. A
few lightning strikes can not be ruled out.

Most locations are VFR with overcast skies in mid and upper
levels. The are some areas of MVFR cigs across the western mtns
that could persist through around 18Z.

Isolated to scattered TSRA return again for this afternoon and
evening, with localized reductions to MVFR or briefly lower.

Outlook...

Tues-Sat...Predominantly VFR, although scattered aftn
showers/storms may cause brief restrictions.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Bradford set a daily record high temperature of 85 degrees
yesterday. This broke the old record of 84 degrees set in 1968.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/Wagner
AVIATION...Lambert/Colbert/Gutierrez
CLIMATE...Lambert

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
1153 AM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-045-091600-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Southern Clinton-
1153 AM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ024>028-033>036-056-057-059-063>066-091600-
Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-
Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
1153 AM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Locally heavy downpours may result in isolated flooding on Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ037-041-042-046-049>053-058-091600-
Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-
Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Schuylkill-
1153 AM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Slow moving showers and isolated thunderstorms will bring brief
heavy downpours this afternoon and evening. Any training and longer
duration of these heavy showers could bring enough rain to cause
localized, minor flooding of poor drainage areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
909 AM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021

PAZ042-081400-
Sullivan PA-
909 AM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF SULLIVAN COUNTY UNTIL
1000 AM EDT...

At 909 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 7 miles
southeast of New Albany, moving east at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Dushore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Minor flooding may develop. Do not drive into water covering the
roadway.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 4149 7624 4146 7625 4142 7641 4156 7649
      4154 7623
TIME...MOT...LOC 1309Z 253DEG 12KT 4151 7636

Lambert

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
102 PM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021

PAZ057-059-063-065-066-081800-
Lancaster PA-York PA-Cumberland PA-Lebanon PA-Dauphin PA-
102 PM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF Northwestern
LANCASTER...YORK... CUMBERLAND...LEBANON...AND DAUPHIN COUNTIES
UNTIL 200 PM EDT...

At 1259 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from Colonial Park to Siddonsburg. Movement was east
at 15 mph.

Torrential rain of up to one inch in just 30 minutes is expected.
Brief Wind gusts up to 45 mph are also possible.

Locations impacted include...
Harrisburg, Lebanon, Lower Allen, Hershey, Colonial Park,
Elizabethtown, Progress, Middletown, Camp Hill, Palmyra, New
Cumberland, Linglestown, Steelton, Annville, Lemoyne, Hummelstown,
Paxtonia, Rutherford, Skyline View and Lawnton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Minor flooding may develop. Do not drive into water covering the
roadway.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

If on or near an area lake, get out of the water and move indoors or
inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 4036 7640 4005 7668 4011 7704 4036 7683
TIME...MOT...LOC 1659Z 277DEG 11KT 4030 7681 4016 7695

Lambert