Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
352 PM EDT Thu Jun 3 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon
and evening over the Lower Susquehanna Valley. Conditions will
dry out in time for the weekend before the first heat wave of
the year brings an extended stretch of hot and humid weather
into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SVR wx watch will be issued very shortly for the SErn counties.
The main threat is wind damage as the CAPE is long and skinny
with warm temps aloft (not favorable for large hail). This is
actually more favorable for heavy rain, but only if we get some
training/repeated cells over the same area. FFG over the far
SErn part of York Co and SErn half of Lanc Co are much lower
than the rest of the lower Susq. The threat of flash flooding is
still expected to not be widespread thansk to a slight but
steady movement of the indiv cells, and relatively high FFG
(2.2.5"/1hr) over a stripe from Pottsville to Harrisburg to
Chambersburg. However, PWATs are high and multiple shots of rain
could lead to minor flooding in spots. The balance of the area
is more stable and cool from earlier rainfall. That said, there
is still a chance for isold TS over much of the The severe threat
in the SE should diminish around or just before sunset.

The upper level forcing does move east, and we'll be under NVA
for much of the rest of the night. Low pressure center to our
north will also slide eastward and drag a weak trough/cold front
in from the west late tonight. This could flare things up right
along the line, but these cells should be low-topped and will be
battling the large-scale downward motion. Will hold onto some
PoPs for the night, but show a gradual decrease in coverage thru
the night. Mins will remain mild and humidity high.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Cold front/trough will be just into the western zones around
sunrise. This leaves much of the area in the warm sector and
susceptible to destabilization on Friday. The sfc forcing will
likely fire up sct/nrms TSRA in the mid-day and aftn, moving
east steadily after popping up. Will keep the highest PoPs in
the SE where they'll have more time to cook. Holding maxes in
the l70s in the west due to timing of the front and
redevelopment of clouds there in the aftn. But, many other
places will be in the 75-80F range. SHRA/TSRA will be dying off
perhaps a little before sunset on Fri.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Looks like weak frontal system will be far enough to the east to
give us mainly dry weather after 00Z Saturday.

Mainly dry weather is expected for the first part of the week,
given the building ridge. However, any weak mid level jet
segments could trigger a shower or storm. This based on having
higher dewpoints this warm spell, after several warm spells this
spring with low dewpoints.

Some hints of a chance of a weak back door cold front toward
mid week. Thus a tad less humid.

Beyond this forecast period, models show a rather strong back
door cold front late next week. That has been often what we
have had this season so far.

Anyway, this weekend will be much warmer than last weekend.
Some 30 to 40 degrees warmer.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An area of widespread showers is moving through much of the
region as of early this afternoon. There hasn't been much
lightning yet, but should see an increasing threat for VCTS as
we go through the afternoon. The greatest instability will
likely be at MDT and LNS where lightning and isolated strong
wind gusts will be possible.

Heading into tonight, model guidance suggests a return of low
cloudiness pretty much areawide with plenty of low level
moisture from earlier rain. Expecing MVFR to brief IFR
conditions at most terminals.

Outlook...

Friday...Scattered showers and storms, mainly during the aftn.

Saturday-Tuesday...Generally dry with predominantly VFR conds.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Martin
AVIATION...Martin/Evanego/Travis

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
302 PM EDT Thu Jun 3 2021

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>035-037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-041915-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-
Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-
302 PM EDT Thu Jun 3 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ036-056>059-063>066-041915-
Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-
Lancaster-
302 PM EDT Thu Jun 3 2021

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 234 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Isolated, short-duration flooding may also occur particularly in
poor drainage areas and urban corridors.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
252 PM EDT Thu Jun 3 2021

PAZ064>066-031915-
Lancaster PA-York PA-Adams PA-
252 PM EDT Thu Jun 3 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF LANCASTER...YORK...AND
ADAMS COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

At 251 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Gettysburg, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
York, Hanover, Weigelstown, Elizabethtown, Gettysburg, Parkville, Red
Lion, Spry, Dallastown, Hampton, Shiloh, East York,
Stonybrook-Wilshire, West York, Maytown, Codorus, Grantley, Tyler
Run-Queens Gate, McSherrystown and Valley View.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3975 7730 4001 7732 4003 7719 4005 7717
      4013 7674 4012 7672 4014 7671 4016 7658
      3986 7649
TIME...MOT...LOC 1851Z 255DEG 28KT 3986 7723

Martin

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
405 PM EDT Thu Jun 3 2021

PAZ065-032030-
York PA-
405 PM EDT Thu Jun 3 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF YORK COUNTY UNTIL 430
PM EDT...

At 405 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Stonybrook-Wilshire, moving east at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
York, Spry, East York, Stonybrook-Wilshire, Tyler Run-Queens Gate,
Hallam, Emigsville, Wrightsville, Yorklyn, Windsor, Yorkana, Safe
Harbor, East Prospect and Penn State York.

LAT...LON 3992 7669 4003 7674 4005 7658 4004 7657
      4005 7654 4003 7653 3999 7650 3997 7650
      3995 7648 3991 7639
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 257DEG 25KT 3996 7662

KF