Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
744 PM EDT Wed May 26 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and storms will gradually diminish as the
evening progresses, and a cold front will cross the remainder
of the commonwealth overnight. Pleasant and dry weather is
expected on Thursday, before a widespread soaking rainfall
brings much cooler temperatures Friday into Saturday. Look for
gradually improving conditions through the remainder of the
Memorial Day weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
Bands of showers and storms continue to impact central PA this
evening. The general trend is for the storms to diminish in
intensity, although brief strong wind gusts remain possible in
any storms. Will slowly continue to trim SVR Watch #205 from NW
to SE, and the watch expiration for all areas is 8PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Showers and storms will continue to fade late this evening.

A cold front will slip south of the area overnight, with a much
drier and comfortably cooler airmass returning overnight and
into Thursday as a large area of sfc high pressure builds
southeastward from the Great Lakes.

Trended temps and dewpoints a few degs on the higher/lower side
of NBM guidance given forecast sounding profiles.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A potent upper air disturbance dropping southeast from the
Northern Plains and Upper Great Lakes Thursday night through
Friday will help to organize and slowly strengthen an area of
surface low pressure, that will move across Southwestern PA
then the Virginias Friday and Friday night. These weather
features will team up to bring a widespread, chilly and
soaking rainfall Friday afternoon and night.

Latest GEFS and ECENS currently supports a widespread 0.5 to 1.5
inch rainfall. which is generally welcome news as much of the
area has been dry recently.

Cool conditions appear likely Saturday with lingering showers
possible, as deep upper level trough passes over the state. The
bulk of model guidance supports drier and not quite as cool
conditions Sunday, as upper trough slowly shifts east of Pa.
However, there is still some model spread here with the slower
operational GFS indicating at least a small chance of showers
Sunday. Latest EURO has also slowed down the eastward shift of
the upper trough, so took temps down some on Sunday. All medium
range guidance indicates dry and warmer conditions early next
week, as surface high drifts off of the Mid Atlantic coast. A
weak, moisture- starved shortwave pressing south into the area
could possibly bring a few showers by Tuesday. ECENS and GEFS
plumes support POPs in the slight chance category.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
00Z TAFS sent. Second line of showers and storms moving into
central areas. Some gusty winds and heavy rain for a few more
hours. Further east, isolated storms just south and east of
MDT.

Later on, some lower CIGS for a brief time, but the airmass
is expected to dry out rather fast.

For Thursday, not seeing much in the way of clouds, given
the very low dewpoints expected. A little breezy.

Looking wet and cold for later Friday into the first part of
Saturday. This will likely result in poor conditions for
aviation.

Outlook...

Friday...Conditions becoming poor with widespread rain.

Saturday...Improving conditions late. Rain in the morning, then
a chance of showers in the afternoon.

Sunday...VFR conditions.

Monday...VFR conditions.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl/Evanego
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl/Evanego
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl/Evanego
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/Travis
AVIATION...Martin

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
803 PM EDT Wed May 26 2021

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-280015-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-
Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-
Adams-York-Lancaster-
803 PM EDT Wed May 26 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
744 PM EDT WED MAY 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0734 PM     HAIL             1 N COLUMBIA            40.05N 76.50W
05/26/2021  E0.88 INCH       LANCASTER          PA   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
751 PM EDT WED MAY 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0233 PM     TSTM WND DMG     UNITYVILLE              41.23N 76.51W
05/26/2021                   LYCOMING           PA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            NUMEROUS TREES REPORTED TO HAVE BEEN SNAPPED
            NEAR UNITYVILLE.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
804 PM EDT Wed May 26 2021

PAZ028-050-270030-
Juniata PA-Snyder PA-
804 PM EDT Wed May 26 2021

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF JUNIATA AND SNYDER
COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM EDT...

At 803 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from near Snyder-Middleswart State Park to
Mcalisterville to Mexico. Movement was east at 55 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Selinsgrove, Winfield, Shamokin Dam, Hummels Wharf, Middleburg,
Mcalisterville, McClure, Kreamer, Port Trevorton, Penns Creek, Beaver
Springs, Richfield, Mount Pleasant Mills, Kratzerville, Paxtonville,
Troxelville, Meiserville, Snyder-Middleswart State Park, Fremont and
Beavertown.

LAT...LON 4067 7735 4069 7729 4070 7735 4080 7735
      4087 7706 4086 7702 4089 7694 4089 7682
      4088 7680 4080 7685 4072 7686 4063 7695
      4061 7701 4059 7717 4056 7717 4049 7735
TIME...MOT...LOC 0003Z 253DEG 49KT 4077 7735 4063 7728 4052 7736

Colbert

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
827 PM EDT Wed May 26 2021

PAZ065-270045-
York PA-
827 PM EDT Wed May 26 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF YORK COUNTY UNTIL 900
PM EDT...

At 826 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Delta, moving east at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Delta, Sunnyburn, Holtwood, Susquehanna Trails, Fawn Grove and Peach
Bottom.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3984 7635 3977 7627 3973 7624 3972 7624
      3972 7652
TIME...MOT...LOC 0026Z 248DEG 33KT 3973 7641

Colbert

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
847 PM EDT Wed May 26 2021

PAZ058-059-270115-
Lebanon PA-Schuylkill PA-
847 PM EDT Wed May 26 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF LEBANON AND SCHUYLKILL
COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM EDT...

At 847 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Williamstown, moving east at 45 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pottsville, Schuylkill Haven, Minersville, St. Clair, Orwigsburg,
Pine Grove, Port Carbon, Tremont, Tower City, Friedensburg, Marlin,
Renningers, Forrestville, Branchdale, Seltzer, Donaldson, Buck Run,
Klingerstown, Beurys Lake and Lake Wynonah.

LAT...LON 4058 7606 4057 7608 4052 7626 4052 7634
      4050 7641 4052 7660 4056 7654 4066 7670
      4072 7654 4071 7605
TIME...MOT...LOC 0047Z 275DEG 41KT 4062 7664

KF