Heat Advisory 4, NWS State College, PA

752 
WWUS71 KCTP 070638
NPWCTP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
238 AM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

PAZ036-056-057-059-063-064-072300-
/O.EXA.KCTP.HT.Y.0004.210707T1700Z-210707T2300Z/
Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-
Including the cities of Chambersburg, Newport, Harrisburg, 
Hershey, Lebanon, Carlisle, and Gettysburg
238 AM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT
THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Heat index values between 100 and 104 expected.

* WHERE...Franklin, Perry, Dauphin, Lebanon, Cumberland and 
  Adams Counties.

* WHEN...From 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat
  illnesses to occur.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Drink plenty of fluids and wear lightweight, loose fitting 
clothing. Check on vulnerable family members and neighbors 
particularly the elderly and those with pre-existing health 
conditions. 

Use air conditioning to stay cool at home or go to a place that 
has air conditioning. 

Young children and pets should never be left unattended in
vehicles under any circumstances. 

Consider rescheduling strenuous activities to early morning or 
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat 
stroke. 

For additional heat safety information, visit weather.gov/heat.

&&

$$

PAZ065-066-072300-
/O.CON.KCTP.HT.Y.0004.210707T1700Z-210707T2300Z/
York-Lancaster-
Including the cities of York and Lancaster
238 AM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Heat index values between 100 and 104 expected.

* WHERE...Lancaster and York Counties.

* WHEN...From 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat 
  illnesses to occur.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Drink plenty of fluids and wear lightweight, loose fitting 
clothing. Check on vulnerable family members and neighbors 
particularly the elderly and those with pre-existing health 
conditions. 

Use air conditioning to stay cool at home or go to a place that 
has air conditioning. 

Young children and pets should never be left unattended in
vehicles under any circumstances. 

Consider rescheduling strenuous activities to early morning or 
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat 
stroke. 

For additional heat safety information, visit weather.gov/heat.

&&

$$
MS/DM
For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://weather.gov/ctp

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
231 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions today and Wednesday will trend seasonably
cooler Thursday and Friday. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms
will last through the end of the week with Saturday looking like
the best chance for a dry day. Unsettled weather returns by the
end of the weekend with more periods of rain and storms into
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
2pm update... Severe Thunderstorm Watches have been hoisted for
the northeastern counties through 8pm and southeastern counties
through 10pm.

First round of thunderstorms has moved across the northern tier
and is pushing through Tioga County currently. These storms
have a history of some gusts to 45 mph but are in a weakening
phase. Behind them, the airmass is quickly recovering and
destabilizing once again, as evidenced by a new cluster of
convection developing in Warren and McKean Counties. Will keep
an eye on these and see if the instability can get large enough
behind the first round of convection to support severe
thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening. The primary
hazard will be gusty winds.

From previous...

Heat advisory remains in effect for the Lower
Susq Valley through 7 PM for heat index values near or slightly
above 100F. Temps of 18-20C at 850 mb support high temps in the
mid 90s in the southeastern valleys given full sunshine.
Remaining mindful of the smoke and haze in the sky, we do
continue to shave a degree or two off the NBM temperature
guidance.

Another forecast challenge is how much drier air from aloft will
mix down during peak heating. Unlike our previous heat wave at
the end of June, which had a source region in the deep tropics,
the hot airmass over us today actually spilled over from the
western ridge that brought heat to the Pacific coast last week.
Back trajectories show this airmass moving down from British
Columbia and south central Canada (where there are several
ongoing wildfires, which explains the smoky skies locally).
This time around, the moisture is a bit more shallow and there
is a higher potential for lower dewpoint air to mix down during
peak heating / peak PBL depth during the afternoon.
Nevertheless, it will be a hot day.

After the severe threat this afternoon and evening, hires model
data shows convection fading over the southern portion of CPA
after midnight. Look for another muggy night with lows 65-75F or
+10F above early July climo.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
An upper shortwave trough is fcst to pivot eastward across the
Great Lakes/Midwest on Wednesday. Ample low level moisture and
instability will fuel showers and thunderstorms. SPC has
highlighted the northeast quadrant of the CWA with a MRGL SWO
with sporadic strong/damaging wind threat on Wednesday
afternoon.and WPC has a good portion of the area in a MRGL ERO
Wed and Thu. Heavy downpours should remain progressive on Wed
with a low risk of flooding. The primary concern this period
centers around potential for a PRE later on D2 into D3 although
there is considerable model uncertainty on the evolution of the
two aforementioned features of interest. Regardless of the
details, at this point measurable rainfall is very likely on
Thursday with categorical POPs supported by a multi-model blend.

MaxTs should peak on Wednesday with HX values making around run
toward 100F in the central and southeast valleys. Trend of very
warm and muggy nights will continue with max T falling back
about 10F on Thursday due to cloud cover/probable rain showers.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Latest NHC track of TS Elsa is consistent keeps it south of the
CWA - going offshore around the DelMarVa peninsula early Friday
morning. But, the plume of higher/tropical moisture will likely
give us extra juice for the showers and storms which form on
Thursday. The heavy rain puts us in a MRGL risk for flash
flooding for Thurs. The persistent frontal boundary just to our
north will drop southward for a brief time from late Friday into
late Sat, perhaps helped by Elsa as she passes off to the east,
pulling in the drier air from the NW. Muggy air Wed night will
keep temps in the 60s and l70s.

Despite the tropical nature of our airmass on Thursday, the
temps will stay in the 70s in the NW half of the area. The maxes
should get into the 80s again for the rest of the area with Heat
Index running in the m90s at highest. Temps Friday should be
similar to Thursday with rain showers fcst to pull away from the
area Friday night behind the weak front.

Conditions on Saturday improve slightly, with another chance of
afternoon showers and thunderstorms. By Sunday/Monday, another
upper-level trough and surface low-pressure system will
contribute to showers and thunderstorms for the start of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHRA/TSRA have developed early this afternoon across the
northern tier. One round of TSRA moved through BFD earlier and
there can still be a few pop up SHRA or TSRA there this
afternoon. Expanded VCTS farther south to IPT, UNV, MDT and LNS
this afternoon and evening, main impacts from any TSRA would be
brief reductions in visibility and gusty winds.

Potential for some patchy fog late tonight where it rains this
afternoon and evening, otherwise VFR conditions expected.

Outlook...

Wed...Another hot, humid day with high density altitudes. There
is another chance of scattered restrictions in aftn SHRA/TSRA.

Thu-Fri...Occasional restrictions likely with a good chance of
SHRA/TSRA.

Sat...Improved conditions, although a few SHRA/TSRA remain possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for PAZ036-056-057-
059-063>066.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl/Colbert
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl/Colbert
LONG TERM...Dangelo/Colbert
AVIATION...Martin/Travis

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
620 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021

PAZ004-005-010-017-024>026-033>035-072230-
Warren-McKean-Elk-Clearfield-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Somerset-
Bedford-Fulton-
620 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Locally heavy rainfall and isolated flooding are possible Wednesday
into Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ057-059-065-066-072230-
Dauphin-Lebanon-York-Lancaster-
620 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 336 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The heat index will approach 100 degrees Wednesday afternoon.

Locally heavy rainfall and isolated flooding are possible Wednesday
into Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ006-011-012-018-019-027-028-037-045-049-050-072230-
Potter-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-
Mifflin-Juniata-Tioga-Southern Clinton-Union-Snyder-
620 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ041-042-046-051>053-072230-
Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Lycoming-Montour-Northumberland-
Columbia-
620 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 335 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Isolated strong to severe storms are possible Wednesday afternoon.

Locally heavy rainfall and isolated flooding are possible Wednesday
into Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ058-072230-
Schuylkill-
620 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 336 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Isolated strong to severe storms are possible Wednesday afternoon.

Locally heavy rainfall and isolated flooding are possible Wednesday
into Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ036-056-063-064-072230-
Franklin-Perry-Cumberland-Adams-
620 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The heat index will approach 100 degrees Wednesday afternoon.

Locally heavy rainfall and isolated flooding are possible Wednesday
into Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
501 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0439 PM     HAIL             HERSHEY                 40.28N 76.65W
07/06/2021  E1.00 INCH       DAUPHIN            PA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            QUARTER-SIZED HAIL IN HERSHEY.

&&

QRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
511 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DUSHORE                 41.52N 76.39W
07/06/2021                   SULLIVAN           PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEALTHY TREES AND BRANCHES SNAPPED.

&&

QRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
519 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     HAIL             HERSHEY                 40.29N 76.65W
07/06/2021  E1.25 INCH       DAUPHIN            PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HALF-DOLLAR SIZED HAIL REPORTED.

&&

QRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
527 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SW CAMPBELLTOWN       40.25N 76.61W
07/06/2021                   DAUPHIN            PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN OVER ROADS. ONE TREE ON
            A HOUSE.

&&

AW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
532 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     HAIL             HERSHEY                 40.29N 76.65W
07/06/2021  E1.25 INCH       DAUPHIN            PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS HAIL REPORT FROM HERSHEY.
            HALF-DOLLAR SIZED HAIL REPORTED.

&&

QRM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
652 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021

PAZ005-062315-
McKean PA-
652 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF MCKEAN COUNTY UNTIL 715
PM EDT...

At 652 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Kinzua Bridge State Park, moving east at 25 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Crosby, Kinzua Bridge State Park and Mount Jewett.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4174 7834 4161 7848 4163 7849 4163 7854
      4173 7869 4178 7865
TIME...MOT...LOC 2252Z 291DEG 21KT 4173 7862

Banghoff