Freeze Watch 4, NWS State College, PA

155 
WWUS71 KCTP 112149
NPWCTP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
549 PM EDT Tue May 11 2021

PAZ024-033-112300-
/O.CAN.KCTP.FZ.A.0004.210512T0500Z-210512T1200Z/
Cambria-Somerset-
Including the cities of Johnstown and Somerset
549 PM EDT Tue May 11 2021

...FREEZE WATCH IS CANCELLED...

Minimum temperatures are expected to remain above freezing for 
most of the area, generally ranging between 33 and 35 degrees. 
In addition, northwest winds of 10 to 15 mph will persist 
overnight, preventing frost formation as well. 

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://weather.gov/ctp

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1246 PM EDT Tue May 11 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Another breezy and cool day for early-mid May with a few
passing rain showers this afternoon. Dry weather conditions will
follow through the midweek period with a decreasing winds and
chilly nighttime temperatures. A slow moderating trend is
expected into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
Visible sat loop shows increasing low level cu and mid clouds
expanding eastward to the north/west of I-81. This is in advance
of a s/w trough crossing the Lower Glakes and subtle sfc
trough/wind shift pushing southeast of Lake Erie.

Still expect isolated to scattered showers to develop into the
afternoon with max POPs across the central and eastern portions
of the CWA. The latest HREF mean shows a few hundred j/kg of
cape over the eastern 1/3 of the area, and with cold
pocket/strong westerly aloft will need to monitor for low-
topped convection and gusty winds/small hail.

Another breezy and cool day for early-mid May in CPA with maxT
in the 50-65F range (NW to SE) or about 10-15F below climo. Most
shower activity should fade into tonight with loss of heating. A
few showers/low clouds may linger over the northern tier near
the coldest temps aloft associated with fairly potent s/w
trough moving into northern New England.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Clear to partly cloudy conditions expected for tonight with
lows in the low 30s to around 40F. A northwest wind averaging
6-11 mph (with some gusts into the teens) should preclude frost
formation with readings bottoming close to freezing over the
western Alleghenies.

High pressure builds in for midweek yielding dry weather, with
more mild high temperatures. Clear nights and calm winds will
yield some chilly nights during the midweek, especially
Wednesday night/Thursday morning as temperatures will dip into
the mid to low 30s. Areas of frost are possible Thursday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Wednesday night/Thursday morning will be rather chilly with lows
in the 30s with frost headlines possible. After that chilly
morning, temperatures will start to moderate and approach more
seasonal ranges, with highs getting into the 70s by the weekend.

The middle part of the week looks to be fairly dry, but showers
and possibly a thunderstorm are possible on Friday afternoon as
upper level diffluence will promote rising air. Afternoon
showers and thunderstorms are possible again on Saturday and
Sunday, though Sunday is trending drier in recent model runs.

There are vast differences between the GFS and EURO for the
beginning of next week in terms of the type of upper-level
forcing, but both models are hinting at an unsettled weather
pattern for the start of the week. Showers look likely for the
beginning and middle of the week at this point.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
For the 12Z TAF package, I did add some MVFR CIGS late tonight
at BFD and JST, based on another wind shift line and guidance.
Otherwise not much change from recent forecast.

Still a lot of mid level clds across the area, been watching
the VAD wind profile to see how cloud heights are. I did not
go outside to look for ISS, given the clouds.

Earlier discussion below.

There could be an isolated shower across the southwest early
this afternoon. There could be another batch of showers form
late today across the far north.

Winds will pick up by late morning.

Aside from BFD and JST later tonight, expect VFR conditions
today into Wednesday, given the dry airmass.

Outlook...

Wed...VFR. Windy.

Thu...VFR/no sig wx.

Fri-Sat...VFR. A few showers possible.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The record low temperature for Thursday morning (5/13) in State
College is 30 degrees.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Gutierrez
LONG TERM...Gutierrez
AVIATION...Martin
CLIMATE...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
807 AM EDT Tue May 11 2021

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-121215-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-
Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-
Adams-York-Lancaster-
807 AM EDT Tue May 11 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.