Special Weather Statement, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1211 AM CDT Fri Oct 1 2021

.AVIATION /06Z TAFs/...

A mixture of VFR and MVFR ceilings are currently in place across
the region. Ceilings will generally hover around the VFR/MVFR
thresholds through the night. Showers and storms are expected to
develop along the coast over the next couple of hours and
gradually spread inland through the morning hours and persist
through the afternoon as coverage expands across the Coastal
Plains and Victoria Crossroads. MVFR/IFR ceilings/visibilities
and gusty winds are possible with any passing convection through
the period. For COT and LRD, convection will approach the
terminals around sunrise or shortly after and persist through the
day. Convection will begin to wane during the evening hours with a
few lingering showers possible across the region.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 430 PM CDT Thu Sep 30 2021/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...

After an active day today across Coastal Plains and Victoria
Crossroads, convection is expected to begin subsiding after sunset
with the loss of daytime heating. A similar setup is expected to
take place tomorrow as the upper level low slowly moves eastward
across the Desert Southwest. Upper level support will be more
favorable for tomorrow as compared to today as a ~50 kt 300 mb jet
enters the region as well as several shortwaves in the 500 mb level.
A couple of convection allowing models are showing an MCS developing
overnight across the Hill Country and moving into South Texas
tomorrow morning, however, models are currently in disagreement with
exactly how far south the MCS will go. With better upper level
support tomorrow, numerous showers will be likely with the
possibility of heavy rainfall. Forecast soundings continue showing
PWATs up to 2.26", with a tall skinny CAPE, a highly saturated
profile and a warm cloud depth layer exceeding 10k feet which would
support high rainfall rates and the possibility of isolated flash
flooding or urban and small stream flooding. Despite guidance
continuing to show QPF less than 1.5" across the western counties,
the 12z HREF continues to show the possibility of 3 to 5" across the
Northern Brush Country where WPC current has a Slight Risk of
Excessive Rainfall for Friday and Friday night.

With the added cloud cover and precipitation expected tomorrow,
temperatures are expected to be a few degrees cooler than today
with highs ranging from the mid to upper 80s. Lows tonight and
tomorrow night will remain mild with temperatures ranging from the
lower to upper 70s.

LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms continue through the
weekend. A weak cold front is expected to push through S TX Monday
bringing drier conditions to the area.

Abundant moisture with PWATs around 2 inches will remain across S TX
Saturday and Sunday. This moisture will combine with a couple of
short waves that are progged to track southeast around the southern
periphery of a long wave trough and northern periphery of an upper
level ridge. In addition, models prog weak to moderate instability
and a weak surface trough along the coast. The combination of these
features may lead to locally heavy rainfall with ponding of low
lying areas and increasing creeks and rivers.

A weak cold front is progged to move through S TX Monday morning
with drier air filtering into the area from the north as a ridge
builds across the region. This will end rain chances from north to
south through the day Monday. Not much in the way of CAA behind
this front, but much drier airmass will lead to warm seasonal
daytime temps and cooler nights Tuesday through Thursday.

MARINE...

Weak to moderate onshore flow will is expected to continue through
tomorrow night. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
expected to continue tonight through tomorrow morning, with the
potential of gusty winds and brief waterspouts tomorrow. Scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected daily through
the weekend. A weak onshore flow can be expected Saturday, then
becoming northeasterly early Sunday as a trough develops along the
coast. Weak onshore flow resumes Sunday afternoon. A weak cold
front with much drier air will push south on Monday resulting in a
weak to moderate northerly flow and diminishing rain chances.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    74  87  73  88  71  /  40  50  30  60  20
Victoria          72  86  71  88  69  /  40  60  30  50  20
Laredo            75  90  74  89  72  /  70  50  50  60  30
Alice             73  89  70  89  69  /  50  50  20  60  20
Rockport          76  87  74  88  73  /  60  60  40  50  20
Cotulla           74  88  73  89  71  /  70  60  40  50  20
Kingsville        74  89  71  89  70  /  40  50  20  50  20
Navy Corpus       78  86  77  86  76  /  50  60  40  50  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

TC/95...AVIATION

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
415 AM CDT Thu Sep 30 2021

TXZ229>234-239>247-342>347-442-443-447-010915-
La Salle-McMullen-Live Oak-Bee-Goliad-Victoria-Webb-Duval-
Jim Wells-Inland Kleberg-Inland Nueces-Inland San Patricio-
Coastal Aransas-Inland Refugio-Inland Calhoun-Coastal Kleberg-
Coastal Nueces-Coastal San Patricio-Aransas Islands-
Coastal Refugio-Coastal Calhoun-Kleberg Islands-Nueces Islands-
Calhoun Islands-
415 AM CDT Thu Sep 30 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected today. Gusty
winds, small hail and locally heavy rainfall are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast through the
weekend. Heavy rain at times may lead to localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-010915-
Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas-
Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out
20 NM-Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to
60 NM-
415 AM CDT Thu Sep 30 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for the Middle Texas
Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected today. Gusty
winds, small hail and locally heavy rainfall are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast through Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

TC/MCZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
221 AM CDT Fri Oct 1 2021

TXZ232-233-010745-
Bee TX-Goliad TX-
221 AM CDT Fri Oct 1 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Goliad
and central Bee Counties through 245 AM CDT...

At 221 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Berclair, or 10 miles east of Beeville, moving north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Beeville, Berclair, Tulsita, Normanna, Pettus, Tuleta, Charco and
Blanconia.

This includes the following highways...
 US Highway 181 between mile markers 572 and 598.
 US Highway 59 between mile markers 670 and 696.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2879 9745 2839 9741 2831 9770 2866 9792
      2868 9784 2867 9782 2868 9779 2867 9778
      2872 9771
TIME...MOT...LOC 0721Z 166DEG 15KT 2845 9759

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

TC