Special Weather Statement, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1223 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021

.AVIATION /18Z TAFs/...

VFR conditions are currently in place across all terminals with
isolated showers and storms spreading across the region. It's
possible we see brief MVFR ceilings/vis with any passing
activity but expect convection to remain mainly isolated this
afternoon. Conditions will begin to deteriorate overnight,
especially across ALI/CRP/VCT, as Tropical Storm Nicholas moves
closer. Heavy rain will begin moving inland late tonight and
continue through the end of this TAF window. MVFR/IFR ceilings and
visibilities are likely across the eastern 3 terminals. Cannot
rule out LIFR visibilities under the heaviest showers. For
COT/LRD, continued with the mention of -RA as the bulk of the
activity will remain east of the Brush Country.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1148 AM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021/

UPDATE...

Updated the forecast to account for newly developed Tropical
Storm Nicholas in the far SW Gulf of Mexico. Impact-wise, it
appears heavy rainfall and flooding will be the widest reaching
hazard over the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads, especially
so by Monday morning as models indicate persistent coastal speed
convergence developing within an atmosphere consisting of very
rich PWATs of 2.2" to 2.4". This low level lift could easily
continue through the afternoon before we see the arrival of
Nicholas' primary rain core Monday evening and overnight, and
eventually its wind core (strongest near and east of its path)
before both of these wane from W-E Tuesday morning. Landfall is
highly dependent on how Nicholas behaves in the next 36 hours as
this is still a young system, but somewhere along the Mid-TX
Coast seems reasonable.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in place for our southern coastal
counties and islands south of Port Aransas, with a Tropical Storm
Watch north to the Victoria Crossroads as this accounts for
Nicholas' more northward track. A Storm Surge Watch is also in
effect for the immediate coast and bays along with a Flash Flood
Watch for all of our coastal counties due to the aforementioned
heavy rain potential.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 443 AM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021/

SHORT TERM (Today through Monday)...

The moisture return will continue through today and tonight as an
inverted trough continues to push west over the area. Convection is
expected to develop later this morning along the coast and continue
to slowly spread inland. By tonight, all of South Texas will have at
least a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some of these
may have heavy rainfall at times which could lead to isolated flash
flooding in normally flood prone-areas.

I think the main story that most are looking for is the potential
for a tropical cyclone. Currently, the National Hurricane Center has
a 90 percent chance of development of a tropical cyclone for an area
of disturbed weather over the Bay of Campeche/southern Gulf of
Mexico. It appears likely that a tropical depression will develop
later today or tonight. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is
expected Monday as the system approaches South Texas. However, the
forecast is HIGHLY dependent on the development and potential track
of any tropical cyclones.

LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...

The focus for the long-term period continues to be in the tropics as
we continue to monitor Invest 94L in the southern Gulf of Mexico.
Invest 94L is expected to become a tropical depression later today
or tonight as it makes a northwestward then northward progression
near the coast of northeast Mexico. The forecast for the system
remains complex as model guidance is still pretty spread apart with
regards to track and intensity. This will likely be the case until
the disturbance becomes more organized.

As far as the upper levels are concerned, model guidance continues
to show a trough retreating to the west as a ridge of high pressure
builds across the southeast. This should allow the tropical system
to be steered more along the TX coastline. The latest runs of the
NAM/ECMWF/ICON models all depict this scenario. The GFS brings the
storm track further east, just off the TX coast.

If the NAM/ECMWF/ICON scenario plays out, locally heavy rainfall
would be likely with rainfall totals of 4-6" and isolated higher
amounts along the coast. 1-3" would be possible for the Coastal
Plains region with totals dropping below an inch for westernmost
counties. WPC does have a slight risk for excessive rainfall on Day
3.

On the flip side...If the system takes a more eastward track (as
suggested by the latest GFS run), we would still see rain; however,
the heaviest rainfall would likely remain offshore.

There is still uncertainty in the forecast as rainfall totals for
this forecast are highly dependent on how far east or how far west
this storm will track. Since the system has yet to develop, models
continue to show spread as far as the forecast track/intensity, thus
confidence in the total rainfall we will receive in South Texas
remains low.

With either of these cases hazardous seas will develop as this
system moves further into the Gulf. Seas will be over 10 feet
through Tuesday, with wave heights subsiding to below 10 feet
Wednesday. There will be an increased risk of rip currents as well
as an increase in the potential for coastal flooding through the
middle of next week.

Once the system develops, we will have a better idea of what impacts
will be felt in South Texas. This system has the potential to spin
up quick and leave little time for preparation.

The tropical system will push off to the northeast by the middle of
the week next week as a trough in the upper levels moves across the
Great Plains. As this happens, energy at the 500mb level will move
into our area and keep rain chances increased through the end of the
work week.

MARINE...

Weak to moderate easterly flow will continue through Sunday.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage today
and tonight. The National Hurricane Center has indicated a 90
percent chance of tropical cyclone development of the tropical wave
currently located over the Bay of Campeche/southern Gulf of Mexico.
This is expected to develop into a tropical depression later today
or tonight and move north over the western Gulf of Mexico.
Regardless of development, conditions may deteriorate early next
week as the system moves northwest towards the western Gulf
coast.Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
Monday through Wednesday. Hazardous seas will develop with Small
Craft Advisory conditions by Monday morning. There is potential for
seas over 10 feet late Monday through Tuesday. Seas will slowly
subside by Wednesday as the system moves off to the northeast.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
Thursday due to lingering moisture. Keep in mind, this forecast is
highly dependent on the evolution of this tropical wave. Please
continue to monitor the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    90  77  86  76  90  /  60  70  80  50  50
Victoria          91  74  84  74  87  /  50  70  80  50  60
Laredo            95  75  93  75  94  /  20  40  50  30  30
Alice             91  73  87  74  91  /  60  70  80  40  40
Rockport          89  78  88  79  89  /  70  70  80  60  50
Cotulla           95  75  92  75  93  /  20  40  50  30  30
Kingsville        90  74  86  74  91  /  60  70  80  40  50
Navy Corpus       89  78  87  81  89  /  70  70  80  50  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Tropical Storm Warning For the following zones: Coastal
     Kleberg...Coastal Nueces...Coastal San Patricio...Kleberg
     Islands...Nueces Islands.

     Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Tuesday
     morning For the following zones: Aransas Islands...Calhoun
     Islands...Coastal Aransas...Coastal Calhoun...Coastal
     Kleberg...Coastal Nueces...Coastal Refugio...Coastal San
     Patricio...Inland Calhoun...Inland Refugio...Inland San
     Patricio...Kleberg Islands...Nueces Islands.

     Storm Surge Watch For the following zones: Aransas Islands...
     Calhoun Islands...Coastal Aransas...Coastal Calhoun...
     Coastal Kleberg...Kleberg Islands...Nueces Islands.

     Tropical Storm Watch For the following zones: Aransas Islands...
     Calhoun Islands...Coastal Aransas...Coastal Calhoun...
     Coastal Refugio...Goliad...Inland Calhoun...Inland
     Refugio...Victoria.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning For the following zones: Bays and
     Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas...Coastal waters
     from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM...Waters from
     Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM.

     Tropical Storm Watch For the following zones: Bays and Waterways
     from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor...Coastal waters from
     Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Waters
     from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60
     NM.

&&

TC/95...AVIATION

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1127 AM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021

TXZ229>234-239>247-342>347-442-443-447-131630-
La Salle-McMullen-Live Oak-Bee-Goliad-Victoria-Webb-Duval-
Jim Wells-Inland Kleberg-Inland Nueces-Inland San Patricio-
Coastal Aransas-Inland Refugio-Inland Calhoun-Coastal Kleberg-
Coastal Nueces-Coastal San Patricio-Aransas Islands-
Coastal Refugio-Coastal Calhoun-Kleberg Islands-Nueces Islands-
Calhoun Islands-
1127 AM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Tropical Storm Warning is effect south of Port Aransas.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from Port Aransas to Matagorda
Bay.

A Storm Surge watch is in effect along the immediate coast.
Inundation of 2 to 4 feet is possible through Tuesday morning.

A Flash Flood Watch is effect from 7 PM tonight through Tuesday
morning through the coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will occur across
the Coastal Bend and Coastal Plains with isolated thunderstorms
across the rest of South Texas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

A Tropical Storm Warning is effect south of Port Aransas.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from Port Aransas to Matagorda
Bay.

A Storm Surge watch is in effect along the immediate coast.
Inundation of 2 to 4 feet is possible through Tuesday morning.

A Flash Flood Watch is effect from 7 PM tonight through Tuesday
morning through the coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms tomorrow associated with
Tropical Storm Nicholas will decrease in coverage becoming
isolated to scattered each day this week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-131630-
Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas-
Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out
20 NM-Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to
60 NM-
1127 AM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for the Middle Texas
Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Tropical Storm Warning is effect south of Port Aransas.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from Port Aransas to Matagorda
Bay.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms will occur across the bays and
waterways.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

A Tropical Storm Warning is effect south of Port Aransas.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from Port Aransas to Matagorda
Bay.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms tomorrow will decrease in
coverage becoming isolated to scattered Wednesday through the
remainder of the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
234 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021

TXZ239-240-122015-
Webb TX-Duval TX-
234 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southwestern Duval
and southeastern Webb Counties through 315 PM CDT...

At 233 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 15 miles northeast of Oilton to near Bruni to 6
miles southeast of Hebbronville. Movement was west at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Oilton, Mirando City, Aguilares, Bruni and Ranchitos Las Lomas.

This includes US Highway 59 between mile markers 792 and 806.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2727 9900 2746 9916 2779 9919 2770 9872
      2745 9870 2734 9861 2734 9862 2735 9862
      2736 9863 2735 9880 2727 9880
TIME...MOT...LOC 1933Z 091DEG 17KT 2764 9879 2746 9878 2725 9860

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TWH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
250 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021

TXZ241-243-244-122015-
Jim Wells TX-Inland Nueces TX-Inland San Patricio TX-
250 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021

...Showers producing strong widns will impact portions of
northwestern Nueces, southwestern San Patricio and northern Jim
Wells Counties through 315 PM CDT...

At 249 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking showers producing gusty
winds along a line extending from near Sandia to near Alfred-South
La Paloma to near Driscoll. Movement was west at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Alice, Robstown, Driscoll, Orange Grove, Lake City, San Patricio,
Midway, Edroy, Alfred-South La Paloma, Bluntzer, Banquete, Westdale,
Sandia, Tecalote, Alice Acres, Alfred, Agua Dulce, North San Pedro,
Pernitas Point and Lake Alice.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 37 between mile markers 18 and 31.
 US Highway 281 between mile markers 652 and 680.
 US Highway 77 between mile markers 672 and 678.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2765 9811 2787 9821 2806 9816 2806 9788
      2807 9790 2807 9786 2805 9774 2794 9763
      2774 9766 2766 9775
TIME...MOT...LOC 1949Z 093DEG 28KT 2801 9783 2786 9790 2769 9781

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TWH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
311 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021

TXZ240-241-122045-
Jim Wells TX-Duval TX-
311 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021

...Showers producing strong winds will impact portions of
northeastern Duval and northwestern Jim Wells Counties through 345
PM CDT...

At 310 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking showers producing strong
winds along a line extending from near Tecalote to near Alice to
near Ben Bolt.
Movement was west at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Alice, San Diego, Ben Bolt, Tecalote, Alfred-South La Paloma, Alice
Acres, Alfred, Rosita and Lake Alice.

This includes US Highway 281 between mile markers 662 and 680.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2794 9846 2778 9847 2760 9835 2764 9802
      2768 9795 2790 9795 2794 9810
TIME...MOT...LOC 2010Z 091DEG 32KT 2793 9813 2778 9813 2762 9803

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TWH