Special Weather Statement, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1238 PM CDT Thu Jul 22 2021

.AVIATION...18Z TAFs

COT currently at MVFR with all other sites at VFR. Expect
predominantly VFR conditions through this TAF cycle with periods
of MVFR cigs/vsbys possible. Showers and thunderstorms will be
possible across S TX this afternoon into the early evening hours.
Expect precipitation chances to diminish overnight into Friday as
a drier airmass moves into the area. Lingering moisture could lead
to a shower or thunderstorm at the VCT terminal during early FRI
AM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 328 AM CDT Thu Jul 22 2021/

SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...

The mid to upper level low over West-Central Texas will continue to
slide west-northwestward into southeast New Mexico by Friday. Due to
its close proximity, an unsettled pattern rests across South Texas
through the day today. Areas of vorticity will drape across the
region with significant moisture of PWATs greater than 2.25",
approaching the 99th percentile. In addition, low-level forcing
mechanisms such as moisture convergence near the coast, sea breeze,
surface heating, outflow boundaries, and a weak low-level jet at
925mb containing 20+ knot winds will all be present. Considering the
aforementioned factors and the movement of the low, expect scattered
showers and thunderstorms to be primarily focused over the coast and
waters early in the morning then progress inland through the
afternoon, expanding in coverage as convection develops along the
seabreeze and potential outflow boundaries. Activity will shift
north and westward in the late afternoon as high pressure begins to
build in from the east and lift support drifts northwestward. The
increase in rain and cloud cover will limit highs in the low to mid
90s, but high humidity will keep heat indices elevated, ranging from
105 to 108 along portions of the Coastal Bend and Coastal Plains.

High pressure continues to build in tonight with PWATs decreasing in
the process. There may be a few showers and thunderstorms lingering
over the northwestern Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains early this
evening before drifting off into Central Texas overnight. Lows will
be warm, in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

Ridging continues into Friday but considering PWATs still near 2.0"
across the Victoria Crossroads and waters along with greatest
moisture convergence along the coast, have included slight chances
of showers and thunderstorms over the waters and Victoria Crossroads
early Friday morning. Dry conditions will then dominate Friday
afternoon into the long-term as PWATs plummet below 1.5", near the
25th percentile. Temperatures will warm up as cloud cover decreases
and skies become mostly sunny, looking at highs in the low 90s near
the coast to 101 in the western Brush Country. Heat indices 105 to
109 are expected.

LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...

Other than bumping up high temps a few degrees each day through
Wednesday, few notable changes were needed with this forecast
package. Friday night opens with the center of a subtropical high
expanding over the entire TX Gulf Coast as PWATs fall to 1 to 1.5
inches. This drying along with capping around 800 mb will serve to
squash daily rain chances until late Wednesday once the ridging
finally subsides and we transition to a deeper easterly fetch with
improving PWATs. This pattern change will be courtesy of a TUTT low
reaching Deep S TX late Tue into Wed, although the brunt of deeper
moisture and lift with these easterly waves is confined east of the
trough's axis, so rain chances should focus primarily in our eastern
counties from Wed night-Thu.

Hazard-wise, heat indices should lead the way each day as we see
widespread readings of 105-109, with a corridor of 110-113 possible
this weekend over the Coastal Plains.

MARINE...

Generally weak to moderate south-southeasterly flow will continue
today, then strengthen to moderate tonight through Friday. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will be possible today as a mid to upper
level low moves west through the state. A break in activity is
expected tonight before slight chances of showers and thunderstorms
return early Friday morning. Dry conditions will take over beginning
Friday afternoon. Moderate onshore flow continues Friday night
through Saturday night, before trending weak from Sunday through
the middle of next week. High pressure aloft will keep dry
conditions intact through Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    91  78  94  79  94  /  50  10  10   0   0
Victoria          91  77  93  76  94  /  60  10  20   0   0
Laredo            95  77 101  76 103  /  30  20   0   0   0
Alice             93  76  98  75  99  /  50  10   0   0   0
Rockport          90  82  91  81  92  /  50  10  10   0   0
Cotulla           93  77  99  76 102  /  40  30   0   0   0
Kingsville        91  78  96  76  97  /  50  10   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       90  82  91  81  90  /  50  10  10   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

HAA/72...AVIATION

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
340 AM CDT Thu Jul 22 2021

TXZ229>234-239>247-342>347-442-443-447-230845-
La Salle-McMullen-Live Oak-Bee-Goliad-Victoria-Webb-Duval-
Jim Wells-Inland Kleberg-Inland Nueces-Inland San Patricio-
Coastal Aransas-Inland Refugio-Inland Calhoun-Coastal Kleberg-
Coastal Nueces-Coastal San Patricio-Aransas Islands-
Coastal Refugio-Coastal Calhoun-Kleberg Islands-Nueces Islands-
Calhoun Islands-
340 AM CDT Thu Jul 22 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected today and early evening.

Heat indices 105 to 109 are possible, especially across the
Coastal Plains.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Heat Advisory conditions are possible daily beginning Friday. Heat
indices may exceed 109, especially over the inland Coastal Plains
and westward. Heat indices of 105 to 109 are possible elsewhere
daily.

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-230845-
Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas-
Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out
20 NM-Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to
60 NM-
340 AM CDT Thu Jul 22 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for the Middle Texas
Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Isolated thunderstorms are possible Friday morning.

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