Special Weather Statement, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
414 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night)...

Concur with the deterministic runs that increasing upper forcing
tonight/early Sunday morning associated with the upper level
disturbance, followed by increasing subsidence Sunday
afternoon/Sunday night. The associated cold front is expected to
move across the CWA 09-12z Sunday. Significant SBCAPE in advance
of the front, yet also significant CIN. Upper forcing combined
with convective instability layer aloft could generate convection,
yet moisture aloft will be limited. SPC keeps our CWA out of
general thunderstorms for tonight. Nevertheless, will forecast a
chance for showers areawide after 06z Sunday and a slight chance
for thunderstorms mainly over northern portions of the CWA. In
advance of the front, anticipate that patchy to areas of
advection fog will develop over the bays/nearshore waters then
enter portions of the coastal counties. Drier conditions expected
after the frontal passage. Low relative humidity values expected
Sunday afternoon and Elevated fire weather conditions may occur.
Thus, an RFD may be needed. Uncertain whether wind magnitudes will
warrant an RFW. Cooler Sunday night with lows in the upper 40s to
lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...

High temperatures Monday will range within the lower 70s to lower
80s in the wake of the cold front. Onshore flow is expected to
return Monday afternoon advecting warmer air into South Texas. With
the warmer air, temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will gradually
warm in advance of the next cold front. The next cold front is
expected to sweep across South Texas Wednesday evening resulting in
isolated to scattered showers with the possibility of a thunderstorm
or two. Behind the front, cold air will advect into South Texas with
highs in the mid 60s Thursday and lows in the 50s Wednesday and
Thursday nights. Temperatures will begin to warm Saturday with highs
in the mid 70s to mid 80s and lows in the 60s. Although elevated
fire weather conditions are not expected behind the front, it can't
be ruled out. Low relative humidity values will settle in behind the
front with moderate northeasterly winds. If winds were to increase 5
to 10 mph more than forecasted, elevated fire weather conditions
will be probable.

&&

.MARINE...

Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions late this
afternoon/early evening over the southern bays/nearshore waters.
The combination of an upper level disturbance, and associated cold
front, will contribute to isolated to scattered convection Sunday
morning. In advance of the front, expect patchy to areas of
advection fog over the bays and nearshore coastal waters. Strong
offshore flow expected after frontal passage, with Small Craft
Advisory conditions developing. Expect conditions to improve form
west to east after 21z Sunday. Predominate SCEC conditions
expected Sunday night. A weak to moderate northeasterly flow
Monday morning will become onshore by Monday afternoon. Onshore
flow is expected to continue until the next frontal passage which
is expected Wednesday morning. Moderate northeasterly winds
Wednesday morning will increase to strong levels by the afternoon
likely resulting in a Small Craft Advisory conditions. With the
frontal passage, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
will be possible across the local waters Wednesday and Wednesday
night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    65  76  54  75  62  /  20  40  10  10   0
Victoria          61  74  47  76  58  /  40  40  10  10   0
Laredo            65  80  54  81  62  /  20  40   0   0   0
Alice             64  77  52  79  59  /  30  40  10  10   0
Rockport          64  77  56  72  63  /  30  40  10  10   0
Cotulla           63  81  50  81  59  /  20  20   0   0   0
Kingsville        64  77  52  78  60  /  20  40  10  10   0
Navy Corpus       65  72  59  70  64  /  20  50  10  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday For the
     following zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port
     Aransas out 20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay
     to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas
     to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 4 PM CDT Sunday For the
     following zones: Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port
     Aransas...Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port
     O'Connor.

&&

WC/87...SHORT TERM
JCP/84...LONG TERM