Small Craft Advisory 82, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

104 
WHUS74 KCRP 181624 AAA
MWWCRP

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1024 AM CST Sat Dec 18 2021

GMZ250-255-270-275-190400-
/O.CON.KCRP.GL.W.0007.211218T2200Z-211219T1200Z/
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out
20 NM-Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to
60 NM-
1024 AM CST Sat Dec 18 2021

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
6 AM CST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...North winds 25 to 30 knots with gusts up to 40 knots and
  seas 5 to 8 feet expected.

* WHERE...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel 
  from 20 to 60 NM, Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 
  20 to 60 NM, Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda 
  Ship Channel out 20 NM and Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to 
  Port Aransas out 20 NM.

* WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM CST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Gale force winds and high seas will result in 
  dangerous marine conditions which could result in capsized or 
  damaged vessels.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and seas.

&&

$$

GMZ230-235-190400-
/O.CON.KCRP.SC.Y.0082.211218T2200Z-211219T1600Z/
Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas-
Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor-
1024 AM CST Sat Dec 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 10 AM CST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...North winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots and
  rough waters expected.

* WHERE...Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas and 
  Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor.

* WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM CST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong to very strong winds and/or increased seas 
  will result in hazardous marine conditions especially for 
  inexperienced mariners with smaller vessels.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

345 
WHUS74 KCRP 190336
MWWCRP

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
936 PM CST Sat Dec 18 2021

GMZ250-255-270-275-191200-
/O.CON.KCRP.GL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-211219T1200Z/
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out
20 NM-Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to
60 NM-
936 PM CST Sat Dec 18 2021

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...North winds 25 to 30 knots with gusts up to 40 knots 
  and seas 5 to 8 feet expected.

* WHERE...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel 
  from 20 to 60 NM, Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 
  20 to 60 NM, Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda 
  Ship Channel out 20 NM and Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to 
  Port Aransas out 20 NM.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM CST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Gale force winds and high seas will result in 
  dangerous marine conditions which could result in capsized or 
  damaged vessels.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and seas.

&&

$$

GMZ230-235-191200-
/O.CON.KCRP.SC.Y.0082.000000T0000Z-211219T1600Z/
Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas-
Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor-
936 PM CST Sat Dec 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...North winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots 
  and rough waters expected.

* WHERE...Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas and 
  Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM CST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong to very strong winds and/or increased seas 
  will result in hazardous marine conditions especially for 
  inexperienced mariners with smaller vessels.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

028 
WHUS74 KCRP 190753
MWWCRP

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
153 AM CST Sun Dec 19 2021

GMZ270-275-191600-
/O.CAN.KCRP.GL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-211219T1200Z/
/O.EXB.KCRP.SC.Y.0082.000000T0000Z-211220T1200Z/
Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to
60 NM-
153 AM CST Sun Dec 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...North winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots and
  seas from 6 to 8 feet.

* WHERE...Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 
  NM and Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 
  20 to 60 NM.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM CST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds and increased seas will result in 
  hazardous marine conditions especially for inexperienced 
  mariners with smaller vessels.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

GMZ250-255-191600-
/O.CAN.KCRP.GL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-211219T1200Z/
/O.EXB.KCRP.SC.Y.0082.000000T0000Z-211219T2200Z/
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out
20 NM-
153 AM CST Sun Dec 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...North winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots and
  seas from 5 to 7 feet.

* WHERE...Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 
  NM and Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship 
  Channel out 20 NM.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM CST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds and increased seas will result in 
  hazardous marine conditions especially for inexperienced 
  mariners with smaller vessels.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

GMZ230-235-191600-
/O.EXT.KCRP.SC.Y.0082.000000T0000Z-211219T1800Z/
Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas-
Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor-
153 AM CST Sun Dec 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY...

* WHAT...North winds around 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots 
  and choppy to rough waters expected.

* WHERE...Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas and 
  Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor.

* WHEN...Until noon CST today.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds and increased seas will result in 
  hazardous marine conditions especially for inexperienced 
  mariners with smaller vessels.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

TMT

302 
WHUS74 KCRP 191537 AAA
MWWCRP

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
937 AM CST Sun Dec 19 2021

GMZ270-275-191800-
/O.CON.KCRP.SC.Y.0082.000000T0000Z-211220T1200Z/
Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to
60 NM-
937 AM CST Sun Dec 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY...

* WHAT...North winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots 
  and seas 6 to 9 feet.

* WHERE...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel 
  from 20 to 60 NM and Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas 
  from 20 to 60 NM.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM CST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Strong to very strong winds and/or increased seas 
  will result in hazardous marine conditions especially for 
  inexperienced mariners with smaller vessels.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

GMZ230-235-191800-
/O.CON.KCRP.SC.Y.0082.000000T0000Z-211219T1800Z/
Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas-
Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor-
937 AM CST Sun Dec 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY...

* WHAT...North winds around 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots 
  and choppy waters.

* WHERE...Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas and 
  Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor.

* WHEN...Until noon CST today.

* IMPACTS...Strong to very strong winds and/or increased seas 
  will result in hazardous marine conditions especially for 
  inexperienced mariners with smaller vessels.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

GMZ250-255-191800-
/O.CON.KCRP.SC.Y.0082.000000T0000Z-211219T2200Z/
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out
20 NM-
937 AM CST Sun Dec 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...North winds around 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots 
  and seas 5 to 7 feet.

* WHERE...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship 
  Channel out 20 NM and Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port 
  Aransas out 20 NM.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM CST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong to very strong winds and/or increased seas 
  will result in hazardous marine conditions especially for 
  inexperienced mariners with smaller vessels.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

424 
WHUS74 KCRP 191802 AAA
MWWCRP

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1202 PM CST Sun Dec 19 2021

GMZ250-255-191915-
/O.CAN.KCRP.SC.Y.0082.000000T0000Z-211219T2200Z/
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out
20 NM-
1202 PM CST Sun Dec 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Strong northerly winds and seas have diminished, therefore the 
Small Craft Advisory has been cancelled.

$$

GMZ230-235-191915-
/O.EXP.KCRP.SC.Y.0082.000000T0000Z-211219T1800Z/
Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas-
Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor-
1202 PM CST Sun Dec 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

Strong northerly winds have diminished, therefore the Small Craft
Advisory has been allowed to expire.

$$

GMZ270-275-192200-
/O.CON.KCRP.SC.Y.0082.000000T0000Z-211220T1200Z/
Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to
60 NM-
1202 PM CST Sun Dec 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY...

* WHAT...North winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots 
  and seas 6 to 9 feet.

* WHERE...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel 
  from 20 to 60 NM and Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas 
  from 20 to 60 NM.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM CST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Strong to very strong winds and/or increased seas 
  will result in hazardous marine conditions especially for 
  inexperienced mariners with smaller vessels.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

211 
WHUS74 KCRP 192120
MWWCRP

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
320 PM CST Sun Dec 19 2021

GMZ270-275-201200-
/O.CON.KCRP.SC.Y.0082.000000T0000Z-211220T1200Z/
Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to
60 NM-
320 PM CST Sun Dec 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY...

* WHAT...North winds around 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots 
  and seas 5 to 7 feet.

* WHERE...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel 
  from 20 to 60 NM and Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas 
  from 20 to 60 NM.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM CST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Strong to very strong winds and/or increased seas 
  will result in hazardous marine conditions especially for 
  inexperienced mariners with smaller vessels.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

356 
WHUS74 KCRP 200248
MWWCRP

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
848 PM CST Sun Dec 19 2021

GMZ250-255-201100-
/O.EXB.KCRP.SC.Y.0082.211220T0600Z-211220T1200Z/
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out
20 NM-
848 PM CST Sun Dec 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM
CST MONDAY...

* WHAT...North winds around 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots 
  expected.

* WHERE...Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 
  NM and Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship 
  Channel out 20 NM.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 6 AM CST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Strong to very strong winds and/or increased seas will
  result in hazardous marine conditions especially for
  inexperienced mariners with smaller vessels.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

GMZ270-275-201100-
/O.EXT.KCRP.SC.Y.0082.000000T0000Z-211220T1500Z/
Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to
60 NM-
848 PM CST Sun Dec 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY...

* WHAT...North winds around 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots 
  and seas 5 to 7 feet.

* WHERE...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel 
  from 20 to 60 NM and Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas 
  from 20 to 60 NM.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM CST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Strong to very strong winds and/or increased seas 
  will result in hazardous marine conditions especially for 
  inexperienced mariners with smaller vessels.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

388 
WHUS74 KCRP 200924
MWWCRP

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
324 AM CST Mon Dec 20 2021

GMZ250-255-201500-
/O.EXT.KCRP.SC.Y.0082.000000T0000Z-211220T1500Z/
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out
20 NM-
324 AM CST Mon Dec 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...North winds around 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots.

* WHERE...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship 
  Channel out 20 NM and Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port 
  Aransas out 20 NM.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM CST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong to very strong winds and/or increased seas 
  will result in hazardous marine conditions especially for 
  inexperienced mariners with smaller vessels.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

GMZ270-275-201730-
/O.EXT.KCRP.SC.Y.0082.000000T0000Z-211220T1800Z/
Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to
60 NM-
324 AM CST Mon Dec 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY...

* WHAT...North winds around 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 
  knots and seas 5 to 7 feet.

* WHERE...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel 
  from 20 to 60 NM and Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas 
  from 20 to 60 NM.

* WHEN...Until noon CST today.

* IMPACTS...Strong to very strong winds and/or increased seas 
  will result in hazardous marine conditions especially for 
  inexperienced mariners with smaller vessels.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

BF

076 
WHUS74 KCRP 201539
MWWCRP

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
939 AM CST Mon Dec 20 2021

GMZ270-275-201800-
/O.CON.KCRP.SC.Y.0082.000000T0000Z-211220T1800Z/
Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to
60 NM-
939 AM CST Mon Dec 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY...

* WHAT...North winds around 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots.

* WHERE...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel 
  from 20 to 60 NM and Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas 
  from 20 to 60 NM.

* WHEN...Until noon CST today.

* IMPACTS...Strong to very strong winds and/or increased seas 
  will result in hazardous marine conditions especially for 
  inexperienced mariners with smaller vessels.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

JCP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1114 PM CST Fri Dec 17 2021

.AVIATION...

Increasing lower clouds indicated on satellite should continue
to spread across S TX leading to MVFR CIGs. Light patchy fog is
also expected to develop overnight with MVFR VSBYs. Brief periods
of IFR CIGs/VSBYs are expected later in the night and toward early
Saturday morning, mainly from ALI to VCT. Increasing chance of
showers overnight across COT from the northwest and across the
Coastal Bend from the south could bring periods of IFR conditions
as well. Thunderstorm chances increase mid to late Saturday
morning with the best chance Sat afternoon as a strong cold front
pushes through S TX. Strong and gusty north winds will develop in
its wake with lingering showers Sat evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 859 PM CST Fri Dec 17 2021/

DISCUSSION...

Latest meso-scale models bring in the better chance of convection
during the day Saturday with the cold front. However, models
sounding do indicate that the PWAT values will increase to around
1.5 inches by 12Z and a weak embedded short wave will be
approaching S TX through the night. Thus, lowered tonight's pops,
but did not completely remove them as am still expecting iso/sct
showers to develop overnight, mainly along the coastal areas and
across the far northwest due to the short wave tracking northeast
across the northern Rio Grande Plains. Kept the convection as
showers through 15Z Sat then switched the weather to showers and
thunderstorms after 15Z when CIN values begin to decrease. Rest of
forecast looks on track with no other changes at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 559 PM CST Fri Dec 17 2021/

AVIATION...

VFR conditions this evening will lower to a mix of MVFR and IFR
conditions overnight. VCT and ALI TAF sites will have the best
chance of IFR/LIFR due to both CIGs and VSBYs. Rain chances will
increase toward early Sat morning with light -RA moving northeast
across the Rio Grande Plains and SHRAs moving north across the
Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads. The chance for thunderstorms
increase late morning/early afternoon as a strong cold front moves
across S TX. Models are in fair agreement that the front will
move across the COT and LRD areas between 17Z-19Z, then ALI and
VCT between 19Z- 21Z. The frontal boundary is expected to reach
the coastline/CRP between 20Z-23Z. A few storms may become strong
to severe Sat afternoon. IFR/LIFR conditions are possible in and
around the convection. A strong north wind and lingering showers
can be expected behind the front.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 413 PM CST Fri Dec 17 2021/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night)...

For those of you who enjoy warm and muggy nights in South Texas,
soak it all in, because tonight will be the last night of
unseasonably warm nighttime temperatures until next week! Mostly
cloudy skies will prevail tonight as a mid-upper level trough
approaches from the west and isentropic lifting and an increase in
moisture aid in maintaining cloud cover over South Texas. Lows
tonight into Saturday morning will be in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Showers will be possible overnight, mainly along the coast and
offshore where there is a reasonable amount of moisture convergence.

Quite a bit to talk about for Saturday. At present, a positively-
tilted mid-upper level trough is stretching from the Northern Plains
down into Baja California. This trough will continue an eastward
progression overnight tonight into Saturday, placing South Texas in
an area of upper-level divergence on Saturday. During this eastward
progression the trough will eject a cold front that will push south
through the state during the day Saturday, exiting South Texas by
Saturday evening.

Looking at the timing of storms Saturday:

Ahead of the front, PWAT values will climb to above 1.5". This
moisture increase, in combination with an inverted surface trough,
mid-level positive vorticity, and isentropic lifting will allow
isolated to scattered showers to continue to develop along the
waters, Coastal Bend, and Victoria Crossroads Saturday morning.
After a close look at HREF and other model guidance, will mention
that there is the potential for locally heavy rainfall with some of
the morning storms along the coast and Victoria Crossroads ahead of
the main line of storms Saturday afternoon.

Anticipating the main line of storms to enter South Texas from the
San Antonio area around noon, with the line of showers and storms
exiting the southern tier counties around 5pm. Will go ahead and
make note that the progression of the cold front is slower with the
NAM compared to the CAM models, so while I am fairly confident with
the timing of the front, would like to mention that timing could be
slightly off and slower if the NAM holds true.

The environment ahead of the front will be fairly unstable. As
mentioned earlier, South Texas will be located in an area of upper-
level divergence within the trough. Effective shear will be around
40 knots, PWATs near 1.7" (99th percentile), MLCAPE values over 2000
J/kg, with moderate lapse rates. Daytime heating and dewpoint values
will be in the upper 60s to 70s. All of these factors will help
initiate a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms during that
noon to 5pm window. With mean storm motion running parallel to the
front, not anticipating any supercell development.

As far as hazards are concerned: Mentioned earlier the potential for
locally heavy rainfall with the morning storms. Discrete cells may
develop ahead of the front, particularly along the coast and
Victoria Crossroads Saturday morning. Lapse rates on Saturday
morning are steeper than those in the afternoon, so could see
marginally severe hail with some of these storms. An isolated, brief
tornado cannot be ruled out with these morning storms.

With the afternoon storms, lapse rates will be slightly less
impressive, so hail potential will decrease. Main concern with the
afternoon storms will be strong to damaging winds. Could see a brief
spin-up along the main line of storms. Some storms could also
produce brief heavy downpours and minor flooding.

SPC does have the majority of South Texas in a marginal risk for
severe weather for Saturday. WPC has a marginal risk of excessive
rainfall out for the northern Coastal Bend up through the Victoria
Crossroads.

As the cold front exits the region Saturday evening, expect a
significant drop in temperatures and breezy northeasterly winds.
Lows will drop into the 40s. A Gale Watch is in effect for the bays
and Gulf Waters Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning.

LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...

Sunday kicks off on the cloudy, breezy and chilly side with
widespread 40s to start the morning. Along with a shallow dome of
cool surface ridging hanging over the region all day, extensive
cloud cover trapped along the elevated frontal layer keep highs well
below normal. Feel the NAM is still a cold outlier with its
widespread 40s for highs while the NBM is too warm, so a CONSMOS
solution looks more fitting. Even though isentropic downglide is
favored in this saturated layer much of the day, we're keeping some
20-40 PoPs as saturated cloud depths of 4-8k feet are sitting just a
few thousand feet off the deck. This alone could breed some very
light rain on/off throughout the day. Initially breezy winds in the
morning tail off later in the day as the gradient relaxes.

Sunday night promises to be the most dynamic period of the extended
forecast as an upper low swings over the TX Panhandle and sends a
110 knot upper jet directly over S TX. This jet coupled with the
elevated frontal zone is progged to not only enhance isentropic
ascent by Sunday night, but also spur some 2D Fn from 800-500mb. NAM
soundings exhibit skinny elevated CAPE of a few hundred J/kg for
parcels lifted from 800mb, so a few rumbles of thunder aren't out of
the question Sunday night. PWATs during this time are progged to sit
around 1.2" (about 1/4" above normal), yet an overall dearth of
instability should keep rainfall AOB 1/2 inch before ascent shuts
down from W-E on Monday as the mid-level trough. Much drier PWATs
and clearing skies on Monday could promote warmer temps than
forecast, although the presence of the N-S surface ridge argues
keeping temps a bit cooler. Temps by Mon night look quite cold under
mostly clear skies and light winds, with a repeat possible Tue night
as high pressure sits close to the coast. Temps moderate nicely
through late week with no chance for rain under broad upper ridging
and paltry PWATs around 1/2".

MARINE...

Weak to moderate onshore flow expected tonight. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are possible late overnight increasing to numerous
showers and scattered thunderstorms on Saturday ahead of a cold
front. The strong cold front is forecast to move into the coastal
waters Saturday afternoon, leading to strong northerly winds. A Gale
Watch is in effect for Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning.
Strong north winds will continue in wake of the front Saturday night
through Sunday morning. Periodic showers on Sunday will increase
to numerous in coverage by Sunday night and Monday as a potent
upper disturbance moves through. Winds will improve to moderate to
strong throughout Sunday morning, then become moderate Monday,
and weak to moderate Tuesday. Rain chances will end from west to
east on Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    70  79  46  53  44  /  20  90  30  30  80
Victoria          68  73  43  55  43  /  30  90  10  20  60
Laredo            70  79  48  56  44  /  20  40  30  30  50
Alice             69  79  45  54  42  /  20  90  30  40  80
Rockport          70  76  47  56  45  /  30  90  40  30  80
Cotulla           70  75  44  53  42  /  30  60  20  30  50
Kingsville        70  81  46  53  43  /  20  90  30  40  80
Navy Corpus       71  77  50  55  47  /  30  90  40  40  90

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday night
     For the following zones: Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay
     to Port Aransas...Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to
     Port O'Connor...Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port
     Aransas out 20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay
     to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas
     to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

TE/81...AVIATION

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
354 PM CST Fri Dec 17 2021

TXZ229>234-239>247-342>347-442-443-447-182200-
La Salle-McMullen-Live Oak-Bee-Goliad-Victoria-Webb-Duval-
Jim Wells-Inland Kleberg-Inland Nueces-Inland San Patricio-
Coastal Aransas-Inland Refugio-Inland Calhoun-Coastal Kleberg-
Coastal Nueces-Coastal San Patricio-Aransas Islands-
Coastal Refugio-Coastal Calhoun-Kleberg Islands-Nueces Islands-
Calhoun Islands-
354 PM CST Fri Dec 17 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected Saturday with a few
strong to severe storms possible. Strong wind gusts are the main
threat at this time.

Locally heavy rain and minor flooding are possible on Saturday,
mainly over the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads.

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-182200-
Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas-
Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out
20 NM-Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to
60 NM-
354 PM CST Fri Dec 17 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for the Middle Texas
Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected Saturday into
Saturday evening over the coastal waters.

A Gale Watch is in effect Saturday and Saturday night. Gale force
winds are possible beginning Saturday afternoon behind a strong
cold front. Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely from Sunday
morning through Sunday evening.