Small Craft Advisory 11, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

536 
WHUS74 KCRP 301801
MWWCRP

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1201 PM CST Sat Jan 30 2021

GMZ230-250-310000-
/O.EXA.KCRP.SC.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-210131T0000Z/
Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM-
1201 PM CST Sat Jan 30 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with 
  occasional seas up to 9 feet.

* WHERE...Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas and 
  Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM CST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong to very strong winds and/or increased seas 
  will result in hazardous marine conditions especially for 
  inexperienced mariners with smaller vessels.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

GMZ270-275-310000-
/O.CON.KCRP.SC.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-210131T0000Z/
Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to
60 NM-
1201 PM CST Sat Jan 30 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with 
  occasional seas up to 9 feet.

* WHERE...Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 
  NM and Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 
  20 to 60 NM.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM CST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong to very strong winds and/or increased seas 
  will result in hazardous marine conditions especially for 
  inexperienced mariners with smaller vessels.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
415 AM CST Sat Jan 30 2021

.SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)...

An upper disturbance is expected to move across portions of
Texas/Southern Plains today, then lift NEWD toward the Midwest
tonight/Sunday while an upper ridge develops over the WRN CONUS.
A surface trough associated with the upper disturbance is expected
to move across the CWA this afternoon. Above normal PWAT values
notwithstanding (NAM deterministic) in advance of the boundary, do
not expect significant precipitation along the boundary over the
CWA given high CIN/near zero CAPE, and likelihood that upper
forcing will remain well north of the CWA. (Caveat...SREF mean QPF
suggest that PCPN may occur just NE of the CWA.) Breezy onshore
flow expected over the ERN CWA late this morning/early afternoon,
in advance of surface trough. Expect patchy fog to develop during
the 06-12z Sunday period, in advance of the surge of surface high
pressure associated with a cold front. Drier conditions expected
by Sunday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Friday)...

High pressure continues to build into South Texas through Monday,
along with weak to moderate northerly winds. Surface high pressure
will then move eastward through the early work week, shifting weak
winds out of the east Monday night becoming onshore flow Tuesday.
Low temperatures will be rather chilly Sunday night and Monday
night, with Sunday night in the low to mid 40s and Monday night in
the upper 30s to lower 40s. WAA and surface moisture increases
through the midweek with ridging aloft in advance of the next cold
front. Highs in the 80s are expected across the Coastal Plains and
Brush Country Wednesday and Thursday under partly cloudy skies.

Timing of FROPA still differs slightly between models due to
deviations in the upper-level pattern. The ECMWF is now the faster
model with FROPA occurring early Thursday evening before midnight
and the GFS lagging about six hours behind with FROPA occurring
overnight Thursday night. Excluded the CMC guidance for input as it
stands out as an outlier with having an extremely weak cold front
halt over South Texas Thursday night before retreating northward as
the upper-level pattern gets absorbed by a strong Canadian closed
low. The ECMWF is the wetter solution with South Texas under upper-
level divergence associated with the right entrance region of a jet
streak; however, a strong cap will act to prohibit convective
development.

In either case, rain chances remain slight and focused over the
Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads Thursday night, otherwise dry
conditions are expected. Also important to note, winds are expected
to be strong over the waters and moderate to strong over the Coastal
Bend in advance of the front Wednesday night through Thursday. Drier
and cooler conditions will develop Friday in wake of the front.

&&

.MARINE...

Moderate to strong onshore flow expected today over the Waters as
an upper level disturbance moves across TX/SRN Plains. A Small
Craft Advisory is in effect for the offshore coastal waters today.
A cold front is expected to move across the Waters tonight/Sunday,
and result in moderate offshore flow. Strong northerly winds will
develop in wake of the front Sunday night and persist through
Monday morning becoming moderate to strong in the afternoon.
Therefore, Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely over all
waters Sunday night through Monday morning, lasting through Monday
afternoon for the offshore waters. Winds then weaken to light to
moderate and shift onshore late Monday night as high pressure
shifts eastward. Moderate onshore flow Tuesday night will
strengthen through the midweek, becoming strong Wednesday night in
advance of the next cold front expected to pass through Thursday
night. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected beginning
Wednesday night, persisting through Thursday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    81  54  74  45  68  /   0   0   0   0   0
Victoria          76  48  69  41  66  /  10   0   0   0   0
Laredo            82  52  76  45  70  /   0   0   0   0   0
Alice             84  52  77  43  71  /   0   0   0   0   0
Rockport          75  55  71  45  67  /  10   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           80  48  75  43  71  /   0   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        83  53  75  44  70  /   0   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       74  57  69  49  66  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening For the
     following zones: Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda
     Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

WC/87...SHORT TERM
EMF/94...LONG TERM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
Issued by National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
431 AM CST Fri Jan 29 2021

TXZ229>234-239>247-342>347-442-443-447-301045-
La Salle-McMullen-Live Oak-Bee-Goliad-Victoria-Webb-Duval-
Jim Wells-Inland Kleberg-Inland Nueces-Inland San Patricio-
Coastal Aransas-Inland Refugio-Inland Calhoun-Coastal Kleberg-
Coastal Nueces-Coastal San Patricio-Aransas Islands-
Coastal Refugio-Coastal Calhoun-Kleberg Islands-Nueces Islands-
Calhoun Islands-
431 AM CST Fri Jan 29 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-301045-
Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas-
Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out
20 NM-Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to
60 NM-
431 AM CST Fri Jan 29 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for the Middle Texas
Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Small Craft Advisory conditions may occur Friday night and Saturday
morning over the Offshore Coastal Waters, and over the entire
Coastal Waters Wednesday through Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.