River Flood Warning 60, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

277 
WGUS84 KCRP 161416
FLSCRP

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
916 AM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Texas...

  Mission River At Refugio affecting Refugio County.

For the Mission River...including Refugio...Minor flooding is 
forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/crp.

&&


TXC391-170530-
/O.EXT.KCRP.FL.W.0060.000000T0000Z-211017T1500Z/
/REFT2.1.ER.211016T1103Z.211016T1800Z.211016T2300Z.NO/
916 AM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until late tomorrow morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Mission River At Refugio.
* Until late tomorrow morning.
* At 9:00 AM CDT Saturday the stage was 23.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 23.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will rise and crest around 23.3 feet today. 
  The river is then expected to fall below flood by tonight, then 
  continue to fall to below caution stage Sunday.
* Impact...At 23.0 feet, Minor lowland flooding occurs. The lowest 
  areas of the city park and facilities, including the pavillion 
  building are flooded. Much of park is also flooded.

&&


 Below are the latest river stages and stage forecasts:

              Fld   Observed                Forecasts (9 am)         
Location      Stg   Stg   Day/Time    Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu    

Mission River
Refugio       23.0  23.2  Sat 9 am    20.0  10.3  6.6   4.9   4.0    





&&

LAT...LON 2827 9737 2835 9730 2820 9714 2814 9721
      2819 9730

$$

CB

132 
WGUS84 KCRP 170038
FLSCRP

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
738 PM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following river in Texas...

   Mission River at Refugio affecting Refugio County.

TXC391-170145-
/O.CAN.KCRP.FL.W.0060.000000T0000Z-211017T0038Z/
/REFT2.1.ER.211016T1103Z.211016T1615Z.211016T2055Z.NO/
738 PM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021

...The Flood Warning for the Mission River At Refugio has been 
cancelled...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Mission River At Refugio.
* At 7:00 PM CDT Saturday, the stage was 22.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 23.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall, dropping below caution 
  stage early Sunday morning.

&&


 Below are the latest river stages and stage forecasts:

              Fld   Observed                Forecasts (8 pm)         
Location      Stg   Stg   Day/Time    Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu    

Mission River
Refugio       23.0  22.7  Sat 7 pm    10.1  3.8   3.5   3.3   3.2    





&&

LAT...LON 2827 9737 2835 9730 2820 9714 2814 9721
      2819 9730

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
628 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021

.AVIATION...

Cold front recently pushed through COT and will impact VCT
shortly after 00Z, followed by the remaining terminals before
03Z. Widely scattered SHRA and some TS will quickly dwindle after
FROPA as dry and very gusty N winds sweep in. Latest indications
are winds at CRP should hold below airport weather warning levels,
although gusts could flirt with 35 knots at times overnight before
gradually scaling lower throughout Saturday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 334 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night)...

A prefrontal boundary is currently moving southeast across
the Brush Country and stretches toward the Victoria Crossroads.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing ahead
and along the boundary. This boundary is expected to move toward the
coast through the afternoon with isolated to scattered convection
spreading southeastward. The main cold front is draped across the
Hill Country and is expected to push through S TX through the
evening hours along with additional convection. Am not expecting any
flooding problems as the PWATs are below 2 inches and the heavier
rainfall is isolated and moving at a good clip.

The cold front is expected to reach the COT to VCT areas by late
this afternoon into early evening between 4-6 pm, then the southern
Brush Country by early evening between 5-7pm and the southern
Coastal Bend by mid evening sometime between 7-10 pm.

Drier, cooler and very windy conditions will filter into S TX behind
the cold front, thus ending the rain chances from northwest to
southeast this evening. As high pressure builds across S TX tonight,
winds along the coast are expected to become strong to very strong
with gusts up to 40 mph, especially across the islands. A Wind
Advisory has been issued for areas along the coast for tonight
through mid morning Saturday. Winds are expected to diminish through
the day Saturday.

A Gale Warning has also been issued for bays and coastal waters
tonight through Saturday for winds gusting up to 40 knots.
Fire weather concerns are not anticipated at this time. However,
winds will be very strong along the coast Saturday morning and if
the winds remain strong longer into the afternoon as the humidity
drops, then there may briefly be elevated fire weather, mainly for
the eastern areas where winds will be higher.

Temperatures tonight behind the front will be in the mid 50s to
lower 60s, and around 50 to mid 50s for Saturday night. Highs
Saturday will be in the 70s but could feel like the upper 50s due
to the winds.

LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...

Cool and dry conditions will continue through Sunday with highs in
the 70s. Mid-level ridging will begin to slide to the east as well
as the surface high pressure system. This will allow onshore flow to
return to the region Monday, slowly returning moisture to South
Texas. At the same time, a mid-level shortwave will pass overhead,
but the lack of sufficient moisture will maintain dry conditions. A
mid-level trough is expected to swing east across the central CONUS
through the week with impulses streaming east across Texas in the
flow aloft. In addition to the mid-level disturbance, the trough
will kick out the next cold front that is expected to move through
South Texas Friday or early Saturday. With moisture increasing for
the latter half of the work week, will maintain isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast.

After the cool start on Sunday, temperatures will gradually warm
through the week, with highs reaching into the mid 80s to lower 90s
by Tuesday/Wednesday.

MARINE...

Generally weak onshore flow will continue through the remainder of
the afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected ahead and along
the front this evening. Very strong northerly winds with frequent
gusts to gale force will develop in the wake of the front this
evening through Saturday. Offshore flow gradually subsides beginning
Saturday afternoon, but will likely remain at advisory levels
through Saturday evening. Onshore flow will develop by early next
week at light to moderate levels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    61  75  55  75  58  /  30   0   0   0   0
Victoria          57  74  51  74  51  /  10   0   0   0   0
Laredo            64  77  57  79  56  /  20   0   0   0   0
Alice             59  76  51  77  53  /  30   0   0   0   0
Rockport          63  78  59  76  60  /  20   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           59  78  52  77  54  /  10   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        60  76  53  77  56  /  30   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       66  76  63  76  65  /  30   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Saturday For
     the following zones: Aransas Islands...Calhoun Islands...
     Coastal Aransas...Coastal Calhoun...Coastal Kleberg...
     Coastal Nueces...Coastal Refugio...Coastal San Patricio...
     Kleberg Islands...Nueces Islands.

GM...Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Saturday For
     the following zones: Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda
     Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

     Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Saturday For
     the following zones: Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to
     Port Aransas...Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port
     O'Connor...Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas
     out 20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda
     Ship Channel out 20 NM.

&&

MCZ/93...AVIATION

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
601 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021

TXZ229>234-239>247-342>347-442-443-447-161200-
La Salle-McMullen-Live Oak-Bee-Goliad-Victoria-Webb-Duval-
Jim Wells-Inland Kleberg-Inland Nueces-Inland San Patricio-
Coastal Aransas-Inland Refugio-Inland Calhoun-Coastal Kleberg-
Coastal Nueces-Coastal San Patricio-Aransas Islands-
Coastal Refugio-Coastal Calhoun-Kleberg Islands-Nueces Islands-
Calhoun Islands-
601 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A cold front this evening will usher in strong northerly winds
with gusts to 40 mph at times along portions of the Coastal Bend.
A Wind Advisory is in effect from 10 PM until 10 AM Saturday for
all coastal counties and islands.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Low humidity levels and moderate northerly winds may create an
elevated fire danger over the Coastal Plains on Saturday.

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-161200-
Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas-
Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out
20 NM-Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to
60 NM-
601 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for the Middle Texas
Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A Gale Warning is in effect tonight through Saturday morning.

Isolated thunderstorms are expected today and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely Saturday afternoon and
evening.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
810 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021

TXZ231-232-241-243-244-246-346-160145-
Live Oak TX-Jim Wells TX-Inland Nueces TX-Inland San Patricio TX-
Coastal Refugio TX-Bee TX-Inland Refugio TX-
810 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Nueces,
San Patricio, northern Jim Wells, southwestern Refugio, southeastern
Live Oak and southeastern Bee Counties through 845 PM CDT...

At 809 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles southwest of Blanconia to near Midway.
Movement was southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Alice, Sinton, Mathis, Woodsboro, Skidmore, Odem, Orange Grove, St.
Paul, Lake City, San Patricio, Midway, Edroy, Banquete, Tynan,
Sandia, West Sinton, Tecalote, Argenta, Bonnie View and Lagarto.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 37 between mile markers 17 and 41.
 US Highway 281 between mile markers 654 and 680.
 US Highway 181 between mile markers 602 and 626.
 US Highway 77 between mile markers 628 and 658.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2798 9823 2841 9746 2812 9721 2809 9729
      2808 9729 2761 9812
TIME...MOT...LOC 0109Z 333DEG 14KT 2831 9750 2797 9814

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JCP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
845 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021

TXZ240>243-160230-
Jim Wells TX-Inland Nueces TX-Duval TX-Inland Kleberg TX-
845 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Duval,
southwestern Nueces, northwestern Jim Wells and northwestern Kleberg
Counties through 930 PM CDT...

At 845 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Tecalote, or near Alice, moving south at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Alice, San Diego, Driscoll, Orange Grove, Alfred-South La Paloma,
Banquete, Westdale, Ben Bolt, Palito Blanco, Tecalote, Alice Acres,
Alfred, Agua Dulce and Lake Alice.

This includes the following highways...
 US Highway 281 between mile markers 660 and 690.
 US Highway 77 between mile markers 676 and 680.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2747 9816 2787 9830 2802 9793 2768 9769
TIME...MOT...LOC 0145Z 337DEG 19KT 2782 9810

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JCP