Alert archive / Texas / Flash Flood Watches in 2021

Flash Flood Watch 5, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

July 6, 202111 counties in Texas

NWS Corpus Christi, TX issued this flash flood watch at Jul 6, 2021, 2:41 AM CDT for 11 counties in Texas. It took effect at Jul 6, 2021, 7:00 AM CDT. It was in force for 4 days.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jul 6, 2021, 2:41 AM CDT (07:41 UTC)
In effect from
Jul 6, 2021, 7:00 AM CDT
Expired
Jul 9, 2021, 7:00 PM CDT
In force
4 days
Issued by
NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Flood severity
None

Counties Aransas County, TX, Bee County, TX, Calhoun County, TX, Goliad County, TX, Jim Wells County, TX, Kleberg County, TX, Live Oak County, TX, Nueces County, TX, Refugio County, TX, San Patricio County, TX, Victoria County, TX

The radar

The Corpus Christi radar (KCRP), 44 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Corpus Christi, TX (KCRP), launched 00:00Z, 7.7 hours before the alert went out and 50 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Corpus Christi, TX at 00:00Z on 2021-07-06Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1645 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Corpus Christi, TX at 00:00Z on 2021-07-06The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 0 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1645 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-6 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
950 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
18 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
0 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
64 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
-0.1
Supercell composite
-1.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

037 
WGUS64 KCRP 060741
FFACRP

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
241 AM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021


TXZ231>234-241>247-342>347-442-443-447-061800-
/O.NEW.KCRP.FF.A.0005.210706T1200Z-210707T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Live Oak-Bee-Goliad-Victoria-Jim Wells-Inland Kleberg-
Inland Nueces-Inland San Patricio-Coastal Aransas-Inland Refugio-
Inland Calhoun-Coastal Kleberg-Coastal Nueces-
Coastal San Patricio-Aransas Islands-Coastal Refugio-
Coastal Calhoun-Kleberg Islands-Nueces Islands-Calhoun Islands-
Including the cities of George West, Three Rivers, Beeville, 
Goliad, Victoria, Alice, Orange Grove, Kingsville, Loyola Beach, 
Ricardo, Riviera, Robstown, Tuloso, Bishop, Sinton, Mathis, Taft,
Odem, Rockport, Fulton, Refugio, McFaddin, Woodsboro, Kamay, 
Corpus Christi, Flour Bluff, Portland, Ingleside, Bayside, 
Austwell, Magnolia Beach, and Port Lavaca
241 AM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

The National Weather Service in Corpus Christi has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for a portion of south Texas, including the 
  following areas, Aransas Islands, Bee, Calhoun Islands, 
  Coastal Aransas, Coastal Calhoun, Coastal Kleberg, Coastal 
  Nueces, Coastal Refugio, Coastal San Patricio, Goliad, Inland 
  Calhoun, Inland Kleberg, Inland Nueces, Inland Refugio, Inland 
  San Patricio, Jim Wells, Kleberg Islands, Live Oak, Nueces 
  Islands, and Victoria. 

* From 7 AM CDT this morning through Wednesday morning

* Numerous showers and thunderstorms producing locally heavy
  rainfall are expected across the coastal plains of south Texas
  today and late tonight. Rain amounts of 2 to 4 inches are
  expected with isolated amounts up to 6 inches possible through 
  early Wednesday morning.

* Low lying areas and places prone to flooding are likely to
  flood. Flooding along area rivers, creeks, and streams will
  likely occur with any additional heavy rainfall.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

TMT
7 follow-up statements
614 
WGUS64 KCRP 061646 AAA
FFACRP

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1146 AM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021

TXZ231>234-241>247-342>347-442-443-447-070400-
/O.EXT.KCRP.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-210709T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Live Oak-Bee-Goliad-Victoria-Jim Wells-Inland Kleberg-
Inland Nueces-Inland San Patricio-Coastal Aransas-Inland Refugio-
Inland Calhoun-Coastal Kleberg-Coastal Nueces-
Coastal San Patricio-Aransas Islands-Coastal Refugio-
Coastal Calhoun-Kleberg Islands-Nueces Islands-Calhoun Islands-
Including the cities of George West, Three Rivers, Beeville, 
Goliad, Victoria, Alice, Orange Grove, Kingsville, Loyola Beach, 
Ricardo, Riviera, Robstown, Tuloso, Bishop, Sinton, Mathis, Taft,
Odem, Rockport, Fulton, Refugio, McFaddin, Woodsboro, Kamay, 
Corpus Christi, Flour Bluff, Portland, Ingleside, Bayside, 
Austwell, Magnolia Beach, and Port Lavaca
1146 AM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for

* A portion of south Texas, including the following areas, 
  Aransas Islands, Bee, Calhoun Islands, Coastal Aransas, 
  Coastal Calhoun, Coastal Kleberg, Coastal Nueces, Coastal 
  Refugio, Coastal San Patricio, Goliad, Inland Calhoun, Inland 
  Kleberg, Inland Nueces, Inland Refugio, Inland San Patricio, 
  Jim Wells, Kleberg Islands, Live Oak, Nueces Islands, and 
  Victoria. 

* Through Thursday evening

* Total rainfall of 4 to 6 inches is expected with localized
  amounts up to 10 inches possible.

* Low lying areas and places prone to flooding are likely to 
  flood. Flooding along area rivers, creeks, and streams will 
  likely occur with any additional heavy rainfall. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

MCZ
202 
WGUS64 KCRP 070348
FFACRP

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1048 PM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021

TXZ231>234-241>247-342>347-442-443-447-071200-
/O.CON.KCRP.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-210709T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Live Oak-Bee-Goliad-Victoria-Jim Wells-Inland Kleberg-
Inland Nueces-Inland San Patricio-Coastal Aransas-Inland Refugio-
Inland Calhoun-Coastal Kleberg-Coastal Nueces-
Coastal San Patricio-Aransas Islands-Coastal Refugio-
Coastal Calhoun-Kleberg Islands-Nueces Islands-Calhoun Islands-
Including the cities of George West, Three Rivers, Beeville, 
Goliad, Victoria, Alice, Orange Grove, Kingsville, Loyola Beach, 
Ricardo, Riviera, Robstown, Tuloso, Bishop, Sinton, Mathis, Taft,
Odem, Rockport, Fulton, Refugio, McFaddin, Woodsboro, Kamay, 
Corpus Christi, Flour Bluff, Portland, Ingleside, Bayside, 
Austwell, Magnolia Beach, and Port Lavaca
1048 PM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of south Texas, including the following areas, 
  Aransas Islands, Bee, Calhoun Islands, Coastal Aransas, 
  Coastal Calhoun, Coastal Kleberg, Coastal Nueces, Coastal 
  Refugio, Coastal San Patricio, Goliad, Inland Calhoun, Inland 
  Kleberg, Inland Nueces, Inland Refugio, Inland San Patricio, 
  Jim Wells, Kleberg Islands, Live Oak, Nueces Islands, and 
  Victoria. 

* Through Thursday evening

* Total rainfall of 4 to 6 inches is expected with localized 
  amounts up to 10 inches possible. 

* Low lying areas and places prone to flooding are likely to 
  flood. Flooding along area rivers, creeks, and streams will 
  likely occur with any additional heavy rainfall. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

TE
533 
WGUS64 KCRP 070830
FFACRP

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
330 AM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXTENDED UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.A slow moving upper low over south Texas will interact with deep
moisture over the coastal plains to provide rounds of showers and
thunderstorms today through Thursday night. Showers and
thunderstorms will be capable of producing very heavy rain with 
rainfall rates of up to three inches per hour. 

TXZ231>234-241>247-342>347-442-443-447-072100-
/O.EXT.KCRP.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-210709T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Live Oak-Bee-Goliad-Victoria-Jim Wells-Inland Kleberg-
Inland Nueces-Inland San Patricio-Coastal Aransas-Inland Refugio-
Inland Calhoun-Coastal Kleberg-Coastal Nueces-
Coastal San Patricio-Aransas Islands-Coastal Refugio-
Coastal Calhoun-Kleberg Islands-Nueces Islands-Calhoun Islands-
Including the cities of George West, Three Rivers, Beeville, 
Goliad, Victoria, Alice, Orange Grove, Kingsville, Loyola Beach, 
Ricardo, Riviera, Robstown, Tuloso, Bishop, Sinton, Mathis, Taft,
Odem, Rockport, Fulton, Refugio, McFaddin, Woodsboro, Kamay, 
Corpus Christi, Flour Bluff, Portland, Ingleside, Bayside, 
Austwell, Magnolia Beach, and Port Lavaca
330 AM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for

* A portion of south Texas, including the following areas, 
  Aransas Islands, Bee, Calhoun Islands, Coastal Aransas, 
  Coastal Calhoun, Coastal Kleberg, Coastal Nueces, Coastal 
  Refugio, Coastal San Patricio, Goliad, Inland Calhoun, Inland 
  Kleberg, Inland Nueces, Inland Refugio, Inland San Patricio, 
  Jim Wells, Kleberg Islands, Live Oak, Nueces Islands, and 
  Victoria. 

* Through Friday morning

* Total rainfall of 4 to 6 inches is expected with localized 
  amounts up to 10 inches possible. 

* Low lying areas and places prone to flooding are likely to 
  flood. Flooding along area rivers, creeks, and streams will 
  likely occur with any additional heavy rainfall. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

TMT
257 
WGUS64 KCRP 072035 AAA
FFACRP

Flood Watch...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
335 PM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021

TXZ231>234-241>247-342>347-442-443-447-081200-
/O.CON.KCRP.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-210709T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Live Oak-Bee-Goliad-Victoria-Jim Wells-Inland Kleberg-
Inland Nueces-Inland San Patricio-Coastal Aransas-Inland Refugio-
Inland Calhoun-Coastal Kleberg-Coastal Nueces-
Coastal San Patricio-Aransas Islands-Coastal Refugio-
Coastal Calhoun-Kleberg Islands-Nueces Islands-Calhoun Islands-
Including the cities of George West, Three Rivers, Beeville, 
Goliad, Victoria, Alice, Orange Grove, Kingsville, Loyola Beach, 
Ricardo, Riviera, Robstown, Tuloso, Bishop, Sinton, Mathis, Taft,
Odem, Rockport, Fulton, Refugio, McFaddin, Woodsboro, Kamay, 
Corpus Christi, Flour Bluff, Portland, Ingleside, Bayside, 
Austwell, Magnolia Beach, and Port Lavaca
335 PM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of South Texas, including the following areas, Aransas
  Islands, Bee, Calhoun Islands, Coastal Aransas, Coastal Calhoun,
  Coastal Kleberg, Coastal Nueces, Coastal Refugio, Coastal San
  Patricio, Goliad, Inland Calhoun, Inland Kleberg, Inland Nueces,
  Inland Refugio, Inland San Patricio, Jim Wells, Kleberg Islands,
  Live Oak, Nueces Islands, and Victoria.

* Through Friday morning.

* Additional rainfall of 3 to 6 inches is expected with localized
  amounts up to 8 inches possible.

* Low lying areas and places prone to flooding are likely to
  flood. Flooding along area rivers, creeks, and streams will
  likely occur with any additional heavy rainfall.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$
918 
WGUS64 KCRP 080820
FFACRP

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
320 AM CDT Thu Jul 8 2021

TXZ231>234-241>247-342>347-442-443-447-081800-
/O.EXT.KCRP.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-210710T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Live Oak-Bee-Goliad-Victoria-Jim Wells-Inland Kleberg-
Inland Nueces-Inland San Patricio-Coastal Aransas-Inland Refugio-
Inland Calhoun-Coastal Kleberg-Coastal Nueces-
Coastal San Patricio-Aransas Islands-Coastal Refugio-
Coastal Calhoun-Kleberg Islands-Nueces Islands-Calhoun Islands-
Including the cities of George West, Three Rivers, Beeville, 
Goliad, Victoria, Alice, Orange Grove, Kingsville, Loyola Beach, 
Ricardo, Riviera, Robstown, Tuloso, Bishop, Sinton, Mathis, Taft,
Odem, Rockport, Fulton, Refugio, McFaddin, Woodsboro, Kamay, 
Corpus Christi, Flour Bluff, Portland, Ingleside, Bayside, 
Austwell, Magnolia Beach, and Port Lavaca
320 AM CDT Thu Jul 8 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY 
EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for

* A portion of south Texas, including the following areas, 
  Aransas Islands, Bee, Calhoun Islands, Coastal Aransas, 
  Coastal Calhoun, Coastal Kleberg, Coastal Nueces, Coastal 
  Refugio, Coastal San Patricio, Goliad, Inland Calhoun, Inland 
  Kleberg, Inland Nueces, Inland Refugio, Inland San Patricio, 
  Jim Wells, Kleberg Islands, Live Oak, Nueces Islands, and 
  Victoria. 

* Through Friday evening

* Additional rainfall of 3 to 5 inches is expected with localized 
  amounts up to 8 inches possible. 

* Low lying areas and places prone to flooding are likely to 
  flood. Flooding along area rivers, creeks, and streams will 
  likely occur with any additional heavy rainfall. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

TMT
482 
WGUS64 KCRP 081737
FFACRP

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1237 PM CDT Thu Jul 8 2021

TXZ231>234-241>247-342>347-442-443-447-091200-
/O.CON.KCRP.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-210710T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Live Oak-Bee-Goliad-Victoria-Jim Wells-Inland Kleberg-Inland Nueces-
Inland San Patricio-Coastal Aransas-Inland Refugio-Inland Calhoun-
Coastal Kleberg-Coastal Nueces-Coastal San Patricio-Aransas Islands-
Coastal Refugio-Coastal Calhoun-Kleberg Islands-Nueces Islands-
Calhoun Islands-
Including the cities of Kingsville, George West, McFaddin, Bayside, 
Kamay, Ricardo, Beeville, Odem, Orange Grove, Goliad, Sinton, 
Victoria, Ingleside, Flour Bluff, Three Rivers, Mathis, Robstown, 
Port Lavaca, Riviera, Austwell, Alice, Loyola Beach, Woodsboro, 
Portland, Fulton, Taft, Magnolia Beach, Tuloso, Refugio, Rockport, 
Corpus Christi, and Bishop
1237 PM CDT Thu Jul 8 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of south Texas, including the following areas, Aransas 
  Islands, Bee, Calhoun Islands, Coastal Aransas, Coastal Calhoun, 
  Coastal Kleberg, Coastal Nueces, Coastal Refugio, Coastal San 
  Patricio, Goliad, Inland Calhoun, Inland Kleberg, Inland Nueces, 
  Inland Refugio, Inland San Patricio, Jim Wells, Kleberg Islands, 
  Live Oak, Nueces Islands and Victoria.

* Through Friday evening.

* Additional rainfall of 3 to 5 inches is expected with locally 
  higher amounts possible.

* Low lying areas and places prone to flooding are likely to flood. 
  Flooding along area rivers, creeks, and streams will likely occur 
  with any additional heavy rainfall.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

LS
936 
WGUS64 KCRP 091114
FFACRP

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
614 AM CDT Fri Jul 9 2021

TXZ231>234-241>247-342>347-442-443-447-100000-
/O.CON.KCRP.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-210710T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Live Oak-Bee-Goliad-Victoria-Jim Wells-Inland Kleberg-Inland Nueces-
Inland San Patricio-Coastal Aransas-Inland Refugio-Inland Calhoun-
Coastal Kleberg-Coastal Nueces-Coastal San Patricio-Aransas Islands-
Coastal Refugio-Coastal Calhoun-Kleberg Islands-Nueces Islands-
Calhoun Islands-
Including the cities of Kingsville, George West, McFaddin, Bayside, 
Kamay, Ricardo, Beeville, Odem, Orange Grove, Goliad, Sinton, 
Victoria, Ingleside, Flour Bluff, Three Rivers, Mathis, Robstown, 
Port Lavaca, Riviera, Austwell, Alice, Loyola Beach, Woodsboro, 
Portland, Fulton, Taft, Magnolia Beach, Tuloso, Refugio, Rockport, 
Corpus Christi, and Bishop
614 AM CDT Fri Jul 9 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of south Texas, including the following areas, Aransas 
  Islands, Bee, Calhoun Islands, Coastal Aransas, Coastal Calhoun, 
  Coastal Kleberg, Coastal Nueces, Coastal Refugio, Coastal San 
  Patricio, Goliad, Inland Calhoun, Inland Kleberg, Inland Nueces, 
  Inland Refugio, Inland San Patricio, Jim Wells, Kleberg Islands, 
  Live Oak, Nueces Islands and Victoria.

* Through this evening.

* Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches is expected with locally 
  higher amounts possible.

* Low lying areas and places prone to flooding are likely to flood. 
  Flooding along area rivers, creeks, and streams will likely occur 
  with any additional heavy rainfall.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

ADAMS

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Corpus Christi, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood watch went out at Jul 6, 12:37 AM CDT, 2 hours 4 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 6, 12:37 AM CDT, 2 hours 4 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1237 AM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021

.AVIATION...06Z TAFs

Convective area over the western Brush Country continues to drift
southward toward LRD area but showing signs of decreasing. MVFR
ceilings/vsbys will occur with the showers out west with IFR vsbys
with the thunderstorms with heavy rain. Low level convergence axis
has set up along the coast at this time. Very high moisture is in
place and expect convection will increase along the coast by 09Z.
The convection will expand across the coastal plains through the
morning hours with storms redeveloping over the Brush Country as
well. MVFR vsbys/ceilings will be prevalent within the showers
and storms but IFR vsbys will occur with the heavy rain. May see
a brief lull in activity from 16-19Z with more convection forming
in the afternoon and early evening. Convection will decrease some
during the evening but expect redevelopment overnight along coast.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 348 PM CDT Mon Jul 5 2021/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...

Surface analysis at 3 PM consisted of a broad, circular outflow
boundary expanding west into the Brush Country and north into the
Victoria Crossroads, with generally light SE winds and quiescent
conditions elsewhere. Convergence along the outflow should be
greatest on its northern end for the next hour or two where the
greatest PoPs remain focused, while much of the Coastal Bend
remains more stable behind the outflow.

A bit of a wild card exists this evening and early tonight across
our western zones as storms currently over the Edwards Plateau
continue trekking south in weak NW flow. Most models (including
the HREF and TTU WRF) dissipate and shift this activity west of
Cotulla and Laredo overnight, but the most recent HRRR has trended
farther east which seems plausible. Opted to show 40-50% PoPs in
our western counties tonight; however, certainty increases toward
daybreak as we expect at least two larger clusters of convection
to evolve - one over the western Brush Country tied to an
approaching MCV, and the other near the Upper Coastal Bend
courtesy of enhanced speed convergence along the coast. This
latter area is favored by most CAMs to dominate the scope of our
CWA by midday as outflows congeal and potentially lead to a
diffuse MCS that drifts south. With PWATs around 2.4", weak
steering flow, and deep warm layer rain processes, the stage is
clearly primed for some heavy rain. Opted to hold off on flood
headlines given rather high flash flood guidance values of 2-4",
although localized flooding is likely at some point during the
day tomorrow. By late Tue afternoon, conditions look to be too
worked over/stabilized in the wake of these storms and this should
extend into the first half of the night before another round of
coastal speed convergence yields late night/early morning
convection near the coast.

NBM's high temps for Tuesday look too warm for the degree of
thicker clouds and widespread precip, so nudged temps lower and
more in tune with the CONSSHORT output.

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...

Significant moisture remains in place across South Texas with PWATs
ranging from 2.0-2.5" through Friday before decreasing to near 2.0"
this weekend into early next week. Low to mid level support seems to
be the most driving factor for convective development compared to a
potential limiting upper level setting. At 250mb, the GFS has high
pressure over the Gulf of Mexico push further inland over the
Coastal Plains, inducing ridging by separating troughs from Mexico
and the AR/LA/TX border. However, there are model disagreements as
the ECMWF and CMC deepen the trough over South Texas keeping the
high pressure well east over the Gulf. The latter would lead to an
environment more favorable for convective development through upper
level divergence. Models are in fair agreement with a mid level
trough axis spanning from Deep South Texas into South Texas
Wednesday through Thursday night. In addition, cyclonic flow will
also be present down to the surface with speed convergence evident
and greatest along the coast.

Considering all the above, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected Wednesday through Thursday night, then
decrease to scattered on Friday as ridging approaches from the east.
Heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding will also be possible
through this time period as moisture remains near or above the 99th
percentile, CAPE generally less than 1500 J/kg, and cloud layer mean
wind remains slow at less than 15 knots. The WPC has all of South
Texas in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall on Wednesday.
Therefore, have included heavy rain for Wednesday through Thursday
when conditions are most favorable. Storm total QPF through Friday
ranges from 2 to 6 inches with locally higher possible. Expect the
greatest coverage and rainfall over the waters, Coastal Bend, and
Victoria Crossroads.

High pressure from the Gulf begins to push westward into South Texas
heading into the weekend, with the trough or developing closed mid-
level low (ECMWF hinting) over northeast Mexico, west of the CWA,
persisting into early next week. This push will likely focus rain
chances to this mid-level disturbance, outside of the CWA, as
ridging builds over South Texas. The GFS sticks out as an outlier
this weekend as it keeps the high pressure over the north Gulf of
Mexico with the mid-level trough draped over South Texas. Due to the
close proximity of the disturbance, uncertainty, and high PWAT
values above the 75th percentile, kept 20-40% PoPs for diurnally
driven showers and thunderstorms Friday night through Monday.

Tropical Storm Elsa may increase wave heights to near 7 feet and
swell periods to 6-8 seconds Thursday into Saturday. This increase
in swells with P-ETSS guidance indicating tide levels near 1.5 ft
above MSL, could cause waters to reach the dunes as well as an
increase in rip currents. High temperatures will remain below
normal, ranging from the mid to upper 80s through Friday before
gradually increasing through the weekend. Lows remain in the mid to
upper 70s.

MARINE...

Light to moderate onshore flow continues tonight through Tuesday
night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms this evening should
expand and become numerous during the pre-dawn hours on Tuesday
and continue through much of the day, before diminishing in
coverage Tuesday night. Weak to moderate onshore flow will
continue through Thursday before strengthening to moderate
Thursday night through the weekend. Swells from Tropical Storm
Elsa will likely move into the region and increase wave heights
Thursday through Saturday. This may lead to periods of Small Craft
Advisory conditions at times, particularly over the offshore
waters. Numerous showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through
Thursday, will decrease to scattered Thursday night. Rain chances
will decrease to 20 to 40 percent Friday into early next week as
an upper level ridge builds west into the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    74  85  75  83  76  /  80  80  70  80  50
Victoria          74  84  74  83  75  /  80  80  60  80  50
Laredo            75  87  74  85  74  /  70  70  50  60  60
Alice             73  85  73  84  74  /  80  80  60  80  50
Rockport          76  86  77  85  78  /  80  80  70  80  50
Cotulla           74  88  75  86  75  /  70  70  50  60  60
Kingsville        74  85  74  83  75  /  80  80  70  80  50
Navy Corpus       77  86  78  85  79  /  80  80  70  80  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

TMT/89...AVIATION
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 5, 4:42 AM CDT, 21 hours 59 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
442 AM CDT Mon Jul 5 2021

TXZ229>234-239>247-342>347-442-443-447-060945-
La Salle-McMullen-Live Oak-Bee-Goliad-Victoria-Webb-Duval-
Jim Wells-Inland Kleberg-Inland Nueces-Inland San Patricio-
Coastal Aransas-Inland Refugio-Inland Calhoun-Coastal Kleberg-
Coastal Nueces-Coastal San Patricio-Aransas Islands-
Coastal Refugio-Coastal Calhoun-Kleberg Islands-Nueces Islands-
Calhoun Islands-
442 AM CDT Mon Jul 5 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible
today through tonight. Periods of heavy rain leading to localized
flooding will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected daily Tuesday
through Thursday. Heavy rainfall could lead to localized flooding at
times Tuesday through Thursday. Scattered thunderstorms will be
possible Friday into the weekend.

A Moderate Risk of Rip Currents is in effect on Tuesday.

A higher risk of rip currents along with minor coastal flooding will
be possible Wednesday through Friday in response to Tropical Storm
Elsa.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-060945-
Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas-
Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out
20 NM-Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to
60 NM-
442 AM CDT Mon Jul 5 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for the Middle Texas
Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible
today through tonight. Some storms could produce gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected daily Tuesday
through Thursday. Some storms could produce gusty winds. Scattered
thunderstorms will be possible Friday becoming isolated for the
weekend.

Increased swells from Tropical Storm Elsa may lead to Small Craft
Advisory Conditions Thursday and Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

ANM/TMT

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 5, 9:31 PM CDT, 5 hours 10 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
931 PM CDT Mon Jul 5 2021

TXZ229-239-060330-
Webb-La Salle-
931 PM CDT Mon Jul 5 2021

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN WEBB AND
LA SALLE COUNTIES...

At 930 PM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Hilltop to 13 miles west of La
Esperanza Ranch Airport. Movement was south at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Cotulla, Encinal, Las Tiendas, Gardendale, Woodward, La Esperanza
Ranch Airport, Millett, Columbia Bridge, Los Angeles, Artesia Wells,
Chupadera Ranch Airport and Chaparral Wildlife Management Area.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 35 between mile markers 33 and 82.
 US Highway 83 between mile markers 668 and 690.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

LAT...LON 2820 9940 2864 9940 2865 9898 2851 9880
      2766 9968 2766 9971 2778 9982 2776 9984
      2779 9985 2780 9988 2784 9988 2788 9991
      2791 9990 2794 9994 2798 9993 2800 9999
      2807 10002 2809 10005 2815 10008 2819 10020
TIME...MOT...LOC 0230Z 033DEG 32KT 2869 9926 2806 9980

TE
Special weather statement, Jul 5, 11:06 PM CDT, 3 hours 35 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1106 PM CDT Mon Jul 5 2021

TXZ229-239-060445-
Webb-La Salle-
1106 PM CDT Mon Jul 5 2021

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL WEBB
AND SOUTHWESTERN LA SALLE COUNTIES...

At 1106 PM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 9 miles south of Chaparral Wildlife
Management Area to 17 miles west of Columbia Bridge. Movement was
southeast at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Encinal, Las Tiendas, Columbia Bridge, La Esperanza Ranch Airport,
Callaghan and Ranchos Penitas West.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 35 between mile markers 27 and 53.
 US Highway 83 between mile markers 674 and 694.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 2784 9988 2820 9947 2820 9940 2827 9939
      2816 9907 2763 9966 2764 9967 2765 9966
      2767 9969 2765 9970 2767 9972 2772 9976
      2774 9980 2778 9982 2776 9984 2779 9985
      2780 9988
TIME...MOT...LOC 0406Z 302DEG 7KT 2819 9940 2764 10000

TE
Special weather statement, Jul 6, 12:00 AM CDT, 2 hours 41 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1200 AM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021

TXZ229-239-060600-
Webb-La Salle-
1200 AM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL WEBB AND
SOUTHWESTERN LA SALLE COUNTIES...

At 1159 PM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Encinal to 16 miles southwest of
Columbia Bridge. Movement was southeast at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Laredo, Encinal, Rio Bravo, Texas A&M, Las Tiendas, Laredo
International Airport, Botines, Unitec Industrial Park, Ranchos
Penitas West, Columbia Bridge, United South High School, St Augustine
High School South Laredo, Doctors Hospital Of Laredo, Laredo Country
Club, Laredo Community College, Orvil and Callaghan.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 35 between mile markers 1 and 44.
 US Highway 59 between mile markers 818 and 824.
 US Highway 83 between mile markers 680 and 726.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 2732 9954 2734 9951 2748 9948 2750 9949
      2750 9953 2757 9951 2761 9955 2760 9959
      2761 9958 2764 9960 2764 9963 2763 9964
      2764 9967 2765 9966 2766 9967 2766 9971
      2773 9977 2815 9945 2801 9897 2730 9953
TIME...MOT...LOC 0459Z 297DEG 13KT 2806 9943 2750 9986

TE

The office that day

Everything else NWS Corpus Christi, TX issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 5, 7:12 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCRPLa Salle33 min
Jul 5, 7:52 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementCRPLa Salle38 min
Jul 5, 8:38 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementCRPLa Salle52 min
Jul 5, 9:31 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementCRPLa Salle59 min
Jul 5, 10:11 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCRPWebb49 min
Jul 5, 10:50 PM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryCRPWebb3 hr
Jul 5, 11:06 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementCRPWebb39 min
Jul 6, 12:00 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementCRPWebb60 min
Jul 6, 2:55 AM CDTSpecial Marine WarningCRP35 min
Jul 6, 4:05 AM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryCRPAransas, Refugio3 hr
Jul 6, 6:29 AM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryCRPBee, Goliad, Live Oak3 hr
Jul 6, 7:09 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningCRPBee5 days
Jul 6, 8:18 AM CDTSpecial Marine WarningCRP42 min
Jul 6, 8:48 AM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryCRPAransas, Kleberg, Nueces117 min
Jul 6, 9:24 AM CDTSpecial Marine WarningCRP40 min
Jul 6, 9:58 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningCRPAransas3 hr
Jul 6, 10:22 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningCRPAransas, San Patricio3 hr
Jul 6, 11:40 AM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryCRPAransas, Calhoun, Kleberg, Nueces119 min
Jul 6, 5:24 PM CDTSpecial Marine WarningCRP35 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Watches in Texas, 2021Every flash flood watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.