Alert archive / Texas / Flash Flood Watches in 2021
Flash Flood Watch 5, NWS Corpus Christi, TX
NWS Corpus Christi, TX issued this flash flood watch at Jul 6, 2021, 2:41 AM CDT for 11 counties in Texas. It took effect at Jul 6, 2021, 7:00 AM CDT. It was in force for 4 days.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 6, 2021, 2:41 AM CDT (07:41 UTC)
- In effect from
- Jul 6, 2021, 7:00 AM CDT
- Expired
- Jul 9, 2021, 7:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 4 days
- Issued by
- NWS Corpus Christi, TX
- Flood severity
- None
Counties Aransas County, TX, Bee County, TX, Calhoun County, TX, Goliad County, TX, Jim Wells County, TX, Kleberg County, TX, Live Oak County, TX, Nueces County, TX, Refugio County, TX, San Patricio County, TX, Victoria County, TX
The radar
The Corpus Christi radar (KCRP), 44 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Corpus Christi, TX (KCRP), launched 00:00Z, 7.7 hours before the alert went out and 50 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1645 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -6 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 950 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 18 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 0 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 64 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- -0.1
- Supercell composite
- -1.0
The text
As transmitted.
037 WGUS64 KCRP 060741 FFACRP URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Flood Watch National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 241 AM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021 TXZ231>234-241>247-342>347-442-443-447-061800- /O.NEW.KCRP.FF.A.0005.210706T1200Z-210707T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Live Oak-Bee-Goliad-Victoria-Jim Wells-Inland Kleberg- Inland Nueces-Inland San Patricio-Coastal Aransas-Inland Refugio- Inland Calhoun-Coastal Kleberg-Coastal Nueces- Coastal San Patricio-Aransas Islands-Coastal Refugio- Coastal Calhoun-Kleberg Islands-Nueces Islands-Calhoun Islands- Including the cities of George West, Three Rivers, Beeville, Goliad, Victoria, Alice, Orange Grove, Kingsville, Loyola Beach, Ricardo, Riviera, Robstown, Tuloso, Bishop, Sinton, Mathis, Taft, Odem, Rockport, Fulton, Refugio, McFaddin, Woodsboro, Kamay, Corpus Christi, Flour Bluff, Portland, Ingleside, Bayside, Austwell, Magnolia Beach, and Port Lavaca 241 AM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... The National Weather Service in Corpus Christi has issued a * Flash Flood Watch for a portion of south Texas, including the following areas, Aransas Islands, Bee, Calhoun Islands, Coastal Aransas, Coastal Calhoun, Coastal Kleberg, Coastal Nueces, Coastal Refugio, Coastal San Patricio, Goliad, Inland Calhoun, Inland Kleberg, Inland Nueces, Inland Refugio, Inland San Patricio, Jim Wells, Kleberg Islands, Live Oak, Nueces Islands, and Victoria. * From 7 AM CDT this morning through Wednesday morning * Numerous showers and thunderstorms producing locally heavy rainfall are expected across the coastal plains of south Texas today and late tonight. Rain amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected with isolated amounts up to 6 inches possible through early Wednesday morning. * Low lying areas and places prone to flooding are likely to flood. Flooding along area rivers, creeks, and streams will likely occur with any additional heavy rainfall. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ TMT
7 follow-up statements
614 WGUS64 KCRP 061646 AAA FFACRP URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Flood Watch...UPDATED National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1146 AM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021 TXZ231>234-241>247-342>347-442-443-447-070400- /O.EXT.KCRP.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-210709T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Live Oak-Bee-Goliad-Victoria-Jim Wells-Inland Kleberg- Inland Nueces-Inland San Patricio-Coastal Aransas-Inland Refugio- Inland Calhoun-Coastal Kleberg-Coastal Nueces- Coastal San Patricio-Aransas Islands-Coastal Refugio- Coastal Calhoun-Kleberg Islands-Nueces Islands-Calhoun Islands- Including the cities of George West, Three Rivers, Beeville, Goliad, Victoria, Alice, Orange Grove, Kingsville, Loyola Beach, Ricardo, Riviera, Robstown, Tuloso, Bishop, Sinton, Mathis, Taft, Odem, Rockport, Fulton, Refugio, McFaddin, Woodsboro, Kamay, Corpus Christi, Flour Bluff, Portland, Ingleside, Bayside, Austwell, Magnolia Beach, and Port Lavaca 1146 AM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... The Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for * A portion of south Texas, including the following areas, Aransas Islands, Bee, Calhoun Islands, Coastal Aransas, Coastal Calhoun, Coastal Kleberg, Coastal Nueces, Coastal Refugio, Coastal San Patricio, Goliad, Inland Calhoun, Inland Kleberg, Inland Nueces, Inland Refugio, Inland San Patricio, Jim Wells, Kleberg Islands, Live Oak, Nueces Islands, and Victoria. * Through Thursday evening * Total rainfall of 4 to 6 inches is expected with localized amounts up to 10 inches possible. * Low lying areas and places prone to flooding are likely to flood. Flooding along area rivers, creeks, and streams will likely occur with any additional heavy rainfall. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ MCZ
202 WGUS64 KCRP 070348 FFACRP Flood Watch National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1048 PM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021 TXZ231>234-241>247-342>347-442-443-447-071200- /O.CON.KCRP.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-210709T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Live Oak-Bee-Goliad-Victoria-Jim Wells-Inland Kleberg- Inland Nueces-Inland San Patricio-Coastal Aransas-Inland Refugio- Inland Calhoun-Coastal Kleberg-Coastal Nueces- Coastal San Patricio-Aransas Islands-Coastal Refugio- Coastal Calhoun-Kleberg Islands-Nueces Islands-Calhoun Islands- Including the cities of George West, Three Rivers, Beeville, Goliad, Victoria, Alice, Orange Grove, Kingsville, Loyola Beach, Ricardo, Riviera, Robstown, Tuloso, Bishop, Sinton, Mathis, Taft, Odem, Rockport, Fulton, Refugio, McFaddin, Woodsboro, Kamay, Corpus Christi, Flour Bluff, Portland, Ingleside, Bayside, Austwell, Magnolia Beach, and Port Lavaca 1048 PM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... The Flash Flood Watch continues for * A portion of south Texas, including the following areas, Aransas Islands, Bee, Calhoun Islands, Coastal Aransas, Coastal Calhoun, Coastal Kleberg, Coastal Nueces, Coastal Refugio, Coastal San Patricio, Goliad, Inland Calhoun, Inland Kleberg, Inland Nueces, Inland Refugio, Inland San Patricio, Jim Wells, Kleberg Islands, Live Oak, Nueces Islands, and Victoria. * Through Thursday evening * Total rainfall of 4 to 6 inches is expected with localized amounts up to 10 inches possible. * Low lying areas and places prone to flooding are likely to flood. Flooding along area rivers, creeks, and streams will likely occur with any additional heavy rainfall. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ TE
533 WGUS64 KCRP 070830 FFACRP URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Flood Watch National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 330 AM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXTENDED UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY MORNING... .A slow moving upper low over south Texas will interact with deep moisture over the coastal plains to provide rounds of showers and thunderstorms today through Thursday night. Showers and thunderstorms will be capable of producing very heavy rain with rainfall rates of up to three inches per hour. TXZ231>234-241>247-342>347-442-443-447-072100- /O.EXT.KCRP.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-210709T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Live Oak-Bee-Goliad-Victoria-Jim Wells-Inland Kleberg- Inland Nueces-Inland San Patricio-Coastal Aransas-Inland Refugio- Inland Calhoun-Coastal Kleberg-Coastal Nueces- Coastal San Patricio-Aransas Islands-Coastal Refugio- Coastal Calhoun-Kleberg Islands-Nueces Islands-Calhoun Islands- Including the cities of George West, Three Rivers, Beeville, Goliad, Victoria, Alice, Orange Grove, Kingsville, Loyola Beach, Ricardo, Riviera, Robstown, Tuloso, Bishop, Sinton, Mathis, Taft, Odem, Rockport, Fulton, Refugio, McFaddin, Woodsboro, Kamay, Corpus Christi, Flour Bluff, Portland, Ingleside, Bayside, Austwell, Magnolia Beach, and Port Lavaca 330 AM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... The Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for * A portion of south Texas, including the following areas, Aransas Islands, Bee, Calhoun Islands, Coastal Aransas, Coastal Calhoun, Coastal Kleberg, Coastal Nueces, Coastal Refugio, Coastal San Patricio, Goliad, Inland Calhoun, Inland Kleberg, Inland Nueces, Inland Refugio, Inland San Patricio, Jim Wells, Kleberg Islands, Live Oak, Nueces Islands, and Victoria. * Through Friday morning * Total rainfall of 4 to 6 inches is expected with localized amounts up to 10 inches possible. * Low lying areas and places prone to flooding are likely to flood. Flooding along area rivers, creeks, and streams will likely occur with any additional heavy rainfall. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ TMT
257 WGUS64 KCRP 072035 AAA FFACRP Flood Watch...UPDATED National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 335 PM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021 TXZ231>234-241>247-342>347-442-443-447-081200- /O.CON.KCRP.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-210709T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Live Oak-Bee-Goliad-Victoria-Jim Wells-Inland Kleberg- Inland Nueces-Inland San Patricio-Coastal Aransas-Inland Refugio- Inland Calhoun-Coastal Kleberg-Coastal Nueces- Coastal San Patricio-Aransas Islands-Coastal Refugio- Coastal Calhoun-Kleberg Islands-Nueces Islands-Calhoun Islands- Including the cities of George West, Three Rivers, Beeville, Goliad, Victoria, Alice, Orange Grove, Kingsville, Loyola Beach, Ricardo, Riviera, Robstown, Tuloso, Bishop, Sinton, Mathis, Taft, Odem, Rockport, Fulton, Refugio, McFaddin, Woodsboro, Kamay, Corpus Christi, Flour Bluff, Portland, Ingleside, Bayside, Austwell, Magnolia Beach, and Port Lavaca 335 PM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... The Flash Flood Watch continues for * A portion of South Texas, including the following areas, Aransas Islands, Bee, Calhoun Islands, Coastal Aransas, Coastal Calhoun, Coastal Kleberg, Coastal Nueces, Coastal Refugio, Coastal San Patricio, Goliad, Inland Calhoun, Inland Kleberg, Inland Nueces, Inland Refugio, Inland San Patricio, Jim Wells, Kleberg Islands, Live Oak, Nueces Islands, and Victoria. * Through Friday morning. * Additional rainfall of 3 to 6 inches is expected with localized amounts up to 8 inches possible. * Low lying areas and places prone to flooding are likely to flood. Flooding along area rivers, creeks, and streams will likely occur with any additional heavy rainfall. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$
918 WGUS64 KCRP 080820 FFACRP URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Flood Watch National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 320 AM CDT Thu Jul 8 2021 TXZ231>234-241>247-342>347-442-443-447-081800- /O.EXT.KCRP.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-210710T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Live Oak-Bee-Goliad-Victoria-Jim Wells-Inland Kleberg- Inland Nueces-Inland San Patricio-Coastal Aransas-Inland Refugio- Inland Calhoun-Coastal Kleberg-Coastal Nueces- Coastal San Patricio-Aransas Islands-Coastal Refugio- Coastal Calhoun-Kleberg Islands-Nueces Islands-Calhoun Islands- Including the cities of George West, Three Rivers, Beeville, Goliad, Victoria, Alice, Orange Grove, Kingsville, Loyola Beach, Ricardo, Riviera, Robstown, Tuloso, Bishop, Sinton, Mathis, Taft, Odem, Rockport, Fulton, Refugio, McFaddin, Woodsboro, Kamay, Corpus Christi, Flour Bluff, Portland, Ingleside, Bayside, Austwell, Magnolia Beach, and Port Lavaca 320 AM CDT Thu Jul 8 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING... The Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for * A portion of south Texas, including the following areas, Aransas Islands, Bee, Calhoun Islands, Coastal Aransas, Coastal Calhoun, Coastal Kleberg, Coastal Nueces, Coastal Refugio, Coastal San Patricio, Goliad, Inland Calhoun, Inland Kleberg, Inland Nueces, Inland Refugio, Inland San Patricio, Jim Wells, Kleberg Islands, Live Oak, Nueces Islands, and Victoria. * Through Friday evening * Additional rainfall of 3 to 5 inches is expected with localized amounts up to 8 inches possible. * Low lying areas and places prone to flooding are likely to flood. Flooding along area rivers, creeks, and streams will likely occur with any additional heavy rainfall. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ TMT
482 WGUS64 KCRP 081737 FFACRP URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Flood Watch National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1237 PM CDT Thu Jul 8 2021 TXZ231>234-241>247-342>347-442-443-447-091200- /O.CON.KCRP.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-210710T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Live Oak-Bee-Goliad-Victoria-Jim Wells-Inland Kleberg-Inland Nueces- Inland San Patricio-Coastal Aransas-Inland Refugio-Inland Calhoun- Coastal Kleberg-Coastal Nueces-Coastal San Patricio-Aransas Islands- Coastal Refugio-Coastal Calhoun-Kleberg Islands-Nueces Islands- Calhoun Islands- Including the cities of Kingsville, George West, McFaddin, Bayside, Kamay, Ricardo, Beeville, Odem, Orange Grove, Goliad, Sinton, Victoria, Ingleside, Flour Bluff, Three Rivers, Mathis, Robstown, Port Lavaca, Riviera, Austwell, Alice, Loyola Beach, Woodsboro, Portland, Fulton, Taft, Magnolia Beach, Tuloso, Refugio, Rockport, Corpus Christi, and Bishop 1237 PM CDT Thu Jul 8 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING... The Flash Flood Watch continues for * A portion of south Texas, including the following areas, Aransas Islands, Bee, Calhoun Islands, Coastal Aransas, Coastal Calhoun, Coastal Kleberg, Coastal Nueces, Coastal Refugio, Coastal San Patricio, Goliad, Inland Calhoun, Inland Kleberg, Inland Nueces, Inland Refugio, Inland San Patricio, Jim Wells, Kleberg Islands, Live Oak, Nueces Islands and Victoria. * Through Friday evening. * Additional rainfall of 3 to 5 inches is expected with locally higher amounts possible. * Low lying areas and places prone to flooding are likely to flood. Flooding along area rivers, creeks, and streams will likely occur with any additional heavy rainfall. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ LS
936 WGUS64 KCRP 091114 FFACRP URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Flood Watch National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 614 AM CDT Fri Jul 9 2021 TXZ231>234-241>247-342>347-442-443-447-100000- /O.CON.KCRP.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-210710T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Live Oak-Bee-Goliad-Victoria-Jim Wells-Inland Kleberg-Inland Nueces- Inland San Patricio-Coastal Aransas-Inland Refugio-Inland Calhoun- Coastal Kleberg-Coastal Nueces-Coastal San Patricio-Aransas Islands- Coastal Refugio-Coastal Calhoun-Kleberg Islands-Nueces Islands- Calhoun Islands- Including the cities of Kingsville, George West, McFaddin, Bayside, Kamay, Ricardo, Beeville, Odem, Orange Grove, Goliad, Sinton, Victoria, Ingleside, Flour Bluff, Three Rivers, Mathis, Robstown, Port Lavaca, Riviera, Austwell, Alice, Loyola Beach, Woodsboro, Portland, Fulton, Taft, Magnolia Beach, Tuloso, Refugio, Rockport, Corpus Christi, and Bishop 614 AM CDT Fri Jul 9 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING... The Flash Flood Watch continues for * A portion of south Texas, including the following areas, Aransas Islands, Bee, Calhoun Islands, Coastal Aransas, Coastal Calhoun, Coastal Kleberg, Coastal Nueces, Coastal Refugio, Coastal San Patricio, Goliad, Inland Calhoun, Inland Kleberg, Inland Nueces, Inland Refugio, Inland San Patricio, Jim Wells, Kleberg Islands, Live Oak, Nueces Islands and Victoria. * Through this evening. * Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches is expected with locally higher amounts possible. * Low lying areas and places prone to flooding are likely to flood. Flooding along area rivers, creeks, and streams will likely occur with any additional heavy rainfall. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ ADAMS
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Corpus Christi, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood watch went out at Jul 6, 12:37 AM CDT, 2 hours 4 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 6, 12:37 AM CDT, 2 hours 4 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1237 AM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021 .AVIATION...06Z TAFs Convective area over the western Brush Country continues to drift southward toward LRD area but showing signs of decreasing. MVFR ceilings/vsbys will occur with the showers out west with IFR vsbys with the thunderstorms with heavy rain. Low level convergence axis has set up along the coast at this time. Very high moisture is in place and expect convection will increase along the coast by 09Z. The convection will expand across the coastal plains through the morning hours with storms redeveloping over the Brush Country as well. MVFR vsbys/ceilings will be prevalent within the showers and storms but IFR vsbys will occur with the heavy rain. May see a brief lull in activity from 16-19Z with more convection forming in the afternoon and early evening. Convection will decrease some during the evening but expect redevelopment overnight along coast. && PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 348 PM CDT Mon Jul 5 2021/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)... Surface analysis at 3 PM consisted of a broad, circular outflow boundary expanding west into the Brush Country and north into the Victoria Crossroads, with generally light SE winds and quiescent conditions elsewhere. Convergence along the outflow should be greatest on its northern end for the next hour or two where the greatest PoPs remain focused, while much of the Coastal Bend remains more stable behind the outflow. A bit of a wild card exists this evening and early tonight across our western zones as storms currently over the Edwards Plateau continue trekking south in weak NW flow. Most models (including the HREF and TTU WRF) dissipate and shift this activity west of Cotulla and Laredo overnight, but the most recent HRRR has trended farther east which seems plausible. Opted to show 40-50% PoPs in our western counties tonight; however, certainty increases toward daybreak as we expect at least two larger clusters of convection to evolve - one over the western Brush Country tied to an approaching MCV, and the other near the Upper Coastal Bend courtesy of enhanced speed convergence along the coast. This latter area is favored by most CAMs to dominate the scope of our CWA by midday as outflows congeal and potentially lead to a diffuse MCS that drifts south. With PWATs around 2.4", weak steering flow, and deep warm layer rain processes, the stage is clearly primed for some heavy rain. Opted to hold off on flood headlines given rather high flash flood guidance values of 2-4", although localized flooding is likely at some point during the day tomorrow. By late Tue afternoon, conditions look to be too worked over/stabilized in the wake of these storms and this should extend into the first half of the night before another round of coastal speed convergence yields late night/early morning convection near the coast. NBM's high temps for Tuesday look too warm for the degree of thicker clouds and widespread precip, so nudged temps lower and more in tune with the CONSSHORT output. LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)... Significant moisture remains in place across South Texas with PWATs ranging from 2.0-2.5" through Friday before decreasing to near 2.0" this weekend into early next week. Low to mid level support seems to be the most driving factor for convective development compared to a potential limiting upper level setting. At 250mb, the GFS has high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico push further inland over the Coastal Plains, inducing ridging by separating troughs from Mexico and the AR/LA/TX border. However, there are model disagreements as the ECMWF and CMC deepen the trough over South Texas keeping the high pressure well east over the Gulf. The latter would lead to an environment more favorable for convective development through upper level divergence. Models are in fair agreement with a mid level trough axis spanning from Deep South Texas into South Texas Wednesday through Thursday night. In addition, cyclonic flow will also be present down to the surface with speed convergence evident and greatest along the coast. Considering all the above, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday through Thursday night, then decrease to scattered on Friday as ridging approaches from the east. Heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding will also be possible through this time period as moisture remains near or above the 99th percentile, CAPE generally less than 1500 J/kg, and cloud layer mean wind remains slow at less than 15 knots. The WPC has all of South Texas in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall on Wednesday. Therefore, have included heavy rain for Wednesday through Thursday when conditions are most favorable. Storm total QPF through Friday ranges from 2 to 6 inches with locally higher possible. Expect the greatest coverage and rainfall over the waters, Coastal Bend, and Victoria Crossroads. High pressure from the Gulf begins to push westward into South Texas heading into the weekend, with the trough or developing closed mid- level low (ECMWF hinting) over northeast Mexico, west of the CWA, persisting into early next week. This push will likely focus rain chances to this mid-level disturbance, outside of the CWA, as ridging builds over South Texas. The GFS sticks out as an outlier this weekend as it keeps the high pressure over the north Gulf of Mexico with the mid-level trough draped over South Texas. Due to the close proximity of the disturbance, uncertainty, and high PWAT values above the 75th percentile, kept 20-40% PoPs for diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms Friday night through Monday. Tropical Storm Elsa may increase wave heights to near 7 feet and swell periods to 6-8 seconds Thursday into Saturday. This increase in swells with P-ETSS guidance indicating tide levels near 1.5 ft above MSL, could cause waters to reach the dunes as well as an increase in rip currents. High temperatures will remain below normal, ranging from the mid to upper 80s through Friday before gradually increasing through the weekend. Lows remain in the mid to upper 70s. MARINE... Light to moderate onshore flow continues tonight through Tuesday night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms this evening should expand and become numerous during the pre-dawn hours on Tuesday and continue through much of the day, before diminishing in coverage Tuesday night. Weak to moderate onshore flow will continue through Thursday before strengthening to moderate Thursday night through the weekend. Swells from Tropical Storm Elsa will likely move into the region and increase wave heights Thursday through Saturday. This may lead to periods of Small Craft Advisory conditions at times, particularly over the offshore waters. Numerous showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through Thursday, will decrease to scattered Thursday night. Rain chances will decrease to 20 to 40 percent Friday into early next week as an upper level ridge builds west into the region. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 74 85 75 83 76 / 80 80 70 80 50 Victoria 74 84 74 83 75 / 80 80 60 80 50 Laredo 75 87 74 85 74 / 70 70 50 60 60 Alice 73 85 73 84 74 / 80 80 60 80 50 Rockport 76 86 77 85 78 / 80 80 70 80 50 Cotulla 74 88 75 86 75 / 70 70 50 60 60 Kingsville 74 85 74 83 75 / 80 80 70 80 50 Navy Corpus 77 86 78 85 79 / 80 80 70 80 50 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && TMT/89...AVIATION
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 5, 4:42 AM CDT, 21 hours 59 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 442 AM CDT Mon Jul 5 2021 TXZ229>234-239>247-342>347-442-443-447-060945- La Salle-McMullen-Live Oak-Bee-Goliad-Victoria-Webb-Duval- Jim Wells-Inland Kleberg-Inland Nueces-Inland San Patricio- Coastal Aransas-Inland Refugio-Inland Calhoun-Coastal Kleberg- Coastal Nueces-Coastal San Patricio-Aransas Islands- Coastal Refugio-Coastal Calhoun-Kleberg Islands-Nueces Islands- Calhoun Islands- 442 AM CDT Mon Jul 5 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for South Texas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible today through tonight. Periods of heavy rain leading to localized flooding will be possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected daily Tuesday through Thursday. Heavy rainfall could lead to localized flooding at times Tuesday through Thursday. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible Friday into the weekend. A Moderate Risk of Rip Currents is in effect on Tuesday. A higher risk of rip currents along with minor coastal flooding will be possible Wednesday through Friday in response to Tropical Storm Elsa. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-060945- Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas- Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor- Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM-Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM- 442 AM CDT Mon Jul 5 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for the Middle Texas Coastal Waters. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible today through tonight. Some storms could produce gusty winds. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected daily Tuesday through Thursday. Some storms could produce gusty winds. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible Friday becoming isolated for the weekend. Increased swells from Tropical Storm Elsa may lead to Small Craft Advisory Conditions Thursday and Friday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. ANM/TMT
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jul 5, 9:31 PM CDT, 5 hours 10 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
931 PM CDT Mon Jul 5 2021
TXZ229-239-060330-
Webb-La Salle-
931 PM CDT Mon Jul 5 2021
...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN WEBB AND
LA SALLE COUNTIES...
At 930 PM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Hilltop to 13 miles west of La
Esperanza Ranch Airport. Movement was south at 15 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with these
storms.
Locations impacted include...
Cotulla, Encinal, Las Tiendas, Gardendale, Woodward, La Esperanza
Ranch Airport, Millett, Columbia Bridge, Los Angeles, Artesia Wells,
Chupadera Ranch Airport and Chaparral Wildlife Management Area.
This includes the following highways...
Interstate 35 between mile markers 33 and 82.
US Highway 83 between mile markers 668 and 690.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
LAT...LON 2820 9940 2864 9940 2865 9898 2851 9880
2766 9968 2766 9971 2778 9982 2776 9984
2779 9985 2780 9988 2784 9988 2788 9991
2791 9990 2794 9994 2798 9993 2800 9999
2807 10002 2809 10005 2815 10008 2819 10020
TIME...MOT...LOC 0230Z 033DEG 32KT 2869 9926 2806 9980
TESpecial weather statement, Jul 5, 11:06 PM CDT, 3 hours 35 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1106 PM CDT Mon Jul 5 2021
TXZ229-239-060445-
Webb-La Salle-
1106 PM CDT Mon Jul 5 2021
...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL WEBB
AND SOUTHWESTERN LA SALLE COUNTIES...
At 1106 PM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 9 miles south of Chaparral Wildlife
Management Area to 17 miles west of Columbia Bridge. Movement was
southeast at 10 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with these
storms.
Locations impacted include...
Encinal, Las Tiendas, Columbia Bridge, La Esperanza Ranch Airport,
Callaghan and Ranchos Penitas West.
This includes the following highways...
Interstate 35 between mile markers 27 and 53.
US Highway 83 between mile markers 674 and 694.
These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
LAT...LON 2784 9988 2820 9947 2820 9940 2827 9939
2816 9907 2763 9966 2764 9967 2765 9966
2767 9969 2765 9970 2767 9972 2772 9976
2774 9980 2778 9982 2776 9984 2779 9985
2780 9988
TIME...MOT...LOC 0406Z 302DEG 7KT 2819 9940 2764 10000
TESpecial weather statement, Jul 6, 12:00 AM CDT, 2 hours 41 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1200 AM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021
TXZ229-239-060600-
Webb-La Salle-
1200 AM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021
...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL WEBB AND
SOUTHWESTERN LA SALLE COUNTIES...
At 1159 PM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Encinal to 16 miles southwest of
Columbia Bridge. Movement was southeast at 15 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.
Locations impacted include...
Laredo, Encinal, Rio Bravo, Texas A&M, Las Tiendas, Laredo
International Airport, Botines, Unitec Industrial Park, Ranchos
Penitas West, Columbia Bridge, United South High School, St Augustine
High School South Laredo, Doctors Hospital Of Laredo, Laredo Country
Club, Laredo Community College, Orvil and Callaghan.
This includes the following highways...
Interstate 35 between mile markers 1 and 44.
US Highway 59 between mile markers 818 and 824.
US Highway 83 between mile markers 680 and 726.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
LAT...LON 2732 9954 2734 9951 2748 9948 2750 9949
2750 9953 2757 9951 2761 9955 2760 9959
2761 9958 2764 9960 2764 9963 2763 9964
2764 9967 2765 9966 2766 9967 2766 9971
2773 9977 2815 9945 2801 9897 2730 9953
TIME...MOT...LOC 0459Z 297DEG 13KT 2806 9943 2750 9986
TEThe office that day
Everything else NWS Corpus Christi, TX issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 5, 7:12 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CRP | La Salle | 33 min |
| Jul 5, 7:52 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | CRP | La Salle | 38 min |
| Jul 5, 8:38 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | CRP | La Salle | 52 min |
| Jul 5, 9:31 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | CRP | La Salle | 59 min |
| Jul 5, 10:11 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CRP | Webb | 49 min |
| Jul 5, 10:50 PM CDT | Areal Flood Advisory | CRP | Webb | 3 hr |
| Jul 5, 11:06 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | CRP | Webb | 39 min |
| Jul 6, 12:00 AM CDT | Special Weather Statement | CRP | Webb | 60 min |
| Jul 6, 2:55 AM CDT | Special Marine Warning | CRP | 35 min | |
| Jul 6, 4:05 AM CDT | Areal Flood Advisory | CRP | Aransas, Refugio | 3 hr |
| Jul 6, 6:29 AM CDT | Areal Flood Advisory | CRP | Bee, Goliad, Live Oak | 3 hr |
| Jul 6, 7:09 AM CDT | River Flood Warning | CRP | Bee | 5 days |
| Jul 6, 8:18 AM CDT | Special Marine Warning | CRP | 42 min | |
| Jul 6, 8:48 AM CDT | Areal Flood Advisory | CRP | Aransas, Kleberg, Nueces | 117 min |
| Jul 6, 9:24 AM CDT | Special Marine Warning | CRP | 40 min | |
| Jul 6, 9:58 AM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | CRP | Aransas | 3 hr |
| Jul 6, 10:22 AM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | CRP | Aransas, San Patricio | 3 hr |
| Jul 6, 11:40 AM CDT | Areal Flood Advisory | CRP | Aransas, Calhoun, Kleberg, Nueces | 119 min |
| Jul 6, 5:24 PM CDT | Special Marine Warning | CRP | 35 min |
Nearby
Flash Flood Watches in Texas, 2021Every flash flood watch in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.