Areal Flood Advisory 13, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
738 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

.DISCUSSION...

Have adjusted the pops up to categorical for this evening to
better match the ongoing convection. Otherwise, the rest of the
forecast looks on track. Convection is still expected to decrease
as it shifts east and southeast overnight into Wed morning
Lingering showers will remain possible Wed afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 639 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021/

AVIATION...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms can be expected through the
overnight hours as a slow moving cold front moves into S TX. This
will lead to CIGs and VSBYs varying between LIFR and MVFR
conditions tonight through Wed morning. S TX is under a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch with several warnings already in effect.
Thunderstorm activity is expected to decrease from west to
southeast through Wed morning with lingering showers through early
Wed afternoon. However, models indicate CIGs to continue between
IFR and MVFR levels through much of the day Wed. Strong gusty
winds can be expected with the stronger storms. A weak to moderate north
wind will develop behind the cold front by early Wed morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 419 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...

Severe convection anticipated this evening over at least the
western portions of South Texas, owing to conditions favorable for
supercells/very large hail. Severe Thunderstorm Watch currently
in effect until 03z Wednesday. The deterministic runs predict a
weak upper level disturbance to move eastward across the SRN
Plains/TX during the period and contribute to the slow movement of
the front across the CWA, generally 06z-16z Wednesday. The
combination of copious moisture and the slow moving front will
likely contribute to the transition from a severe to a heavy
rainfall event overnight. After coordinating with surrounding
WFOs, will not issue a FFA for tonight. Based on RAP/NAM output,
conditions will not be ideal for efficient rainfall production
overnight, since these models maintain strong vertical shear,
large CAPE (although weaker than this evening), and only a limited
time period whereby a nearly saturated and warm 0-4km layer will
exist. After frontal passage Wednesday, expect cloudy/cooler
conditions, with elevated convection possible. Lowered maximum
temperatures Wednesday below NBM/SREF mean given expectation of
limited solar radiation. Drier Wednesday night. Ekman forcing
associated with persistent moderate northeast flow Wednesday
night may increase the risk of minor coastal flooding at Bob Hall
Pier 11-12z Thursday, near the time of high tide.

LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...

Rain chances will come to an end from north to south by Thursday
afternoon, as high pressure settles in the wake of the cold front.
Drier and cooler conditions are expected to persist through Friday
as ridging also dominates aloft. Northeast winds will veer east and
then southeast Friday night as the surface high pressure transitions
eastward. The return flow will allow for a steady increase in
moisture across the region early in the weekend with PWATs rising to
around 2 inches or more by Saturday afternoon. This, in addition to
several passing disturbances ejecting into the area from the mid-
levels, warmer temperatures, higher instability and little to none
convective inhibition may potentially provide the setting for
another round of showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday.
Given this setting pans out, some of these storms could become
strong to severe at times over the weekend. Rain and storm chances
are likely to linger into early next week ahead of the next upper
low/trough moving from the Four Corners region into the Central
Plains.

Cooler and below normal temperatures can be expected Thursday
through Friday, followed by a warming trend over the weekend into
early next week. Highs will range from the upper 70s to near 80 on
Thursday to the mid 80s to upper 90s by Monday. Lows will be in the
60s Thursday night, warming into the 70s over the weekend.

MARINE...

Severe convection possible this evening/early tonight, followed
by a transition to a heavy rainfall event after 06z Wednesday in
advance of/near an approaching front. The front is expected to
move across the Waters Wednesday afternoon. Drier conditions
expected Wednesday night. The combination of increasing MSLP over
the NW Gulf of Mexico, and surface low pressure over the Bay of
Campeche, anticipate moderate northeast flow by Wednesday night.
Rain chances will diminish on Thursday. Moderate northeast flow
behind the front will continue Thursday through Friday. Onshore
flow and increasing moisture beginning Friday night will combine
with a series of upper level disturbances to generate isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday.
Intermittent periods of Small Craft Exercise Caution or Advisory
conditions will be possible Thursday through Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    71  76  66  79  66  /  70  60  10  10   0
Victoria          69  74  63  77  61  /  70  50  10  10   0
Laredo            72  74  65  81  66  /  80  60  20  20  10
Alice             70  75  64  81  64  /  80  60  10  10   0
Rockport          71  76  66  80  68  /  70  60  10  10   0
Cotulla           70  73  64  82  65  /  80  40  10  10   0
Kingsville        70  76  65  79  65  /  80  70  10  10   0
Navy Corpus       73  76  69  78  69  /  60  70  20  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

TE/81...SHORT TERM

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
309 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

TXZ229-230-112045-
McMullen-La Salle-
309 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN LA SALLE AND
NORTHWESTERN MCMULLEN COUNTIES...

At 308 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered near Los Angeles,
or 14 miles east of Cotulla, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cotulla, Gardendale, Cross, Woodward, Zella, Fowlerton, Millett and
Los Angeles.

This includes Interstate 35 between mile markers 62 and 82.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 2864 9840 2826 9901 2840 9939 2852 9940
      2865 9920
TIME...MOT...LOC 2008Z 235DEG 32KT 2851 9902

JCP

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
629 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

TXZ229-230-239-120000-
McMullen-Webb-La Salle-
629 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN WEBB...
SOUTHEASTERN LA SALLE AND SOUTHWESTERN MCMULLEN COUNTIES...

At 629 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered near Fort Ewell
Site, or 23 miles east of Encinal, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern Webb,
southeastern La Salle and southwestern McMullen Counties.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 2789 9914 2810 9930 2835 9884 2814 9866
TIME...MOT...LOC 2329Z 233DEG 17KT 2813 9898

JCP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
705 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

TXZ229-239-120045-
Webb-La Salle-
705 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN WEBB AND
SOUTHWESTERN LA SALLE COUNTIES...

At 704 PM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 7 miles east of Encinal to near Callaghan
to 16 miles northwest of Columbia Bridge. Movement was east at 25
mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Encinal, Las Tiendas, Columbia Bridge, Botines, La Esperanza Ranch
Airport and Callaghan.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 35 between mile markers 15 and 47.
 US Highway 83 between mile markers 668 and 698.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 2820 9964 2820 9943 2798 9880 2796 9880
      2776 9910 2767 9969 2765 9970 2772 9976
      2774 9980 2778 9982 2776 9984 2779 9985
      2780 9988 2784 9988 2788 9991 2791 9990
      2794 9994 2798 9993 2800 9999 2807 10003
TIME...MOT...LOC 0004Z 284DEG 21KT 2808 9924 2793 9946 2786 9995

TC