Winter Weather Advisory 1, NWS Cleveland, OH

475 
WWUS41 KCLE 031502
WSWCLE

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1002 AM EST Sun Jan 3 2021


PAZ002-003-031615-
/O.EXP.KCLE.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-210103T1500Z/
Southern Erie-Crawford-
Including the cities of Edinboro, Corry, Union City, Meadville, 
and Titusville
1002 AM EST Sun Jan 3 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

Temperatures will continue to warm into the mid 30s today with  
precipitation transitioning to rain. 

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://www.weather.gov/cle

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
313 AM EST Sun Jan 3 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure will move northeast across the area
today, followed by a weak ridge of high pressure on Monday. A trough
will move east across the area on Tuesday, while another weak ridge
of high pressure will arrive on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low pressure is beginning to slowly deepen across Indiana this
morning as it moves northeast across the area through today. Biggest
forecast change for the first half of the near term period is the
notable decrease in snowfall across NW OH. Now only expecting
accumulations up to around an inch in the Toledo area over the next
couple of hours. Elsewhere, a rain/snow mix may remain possible a
across the area through the morning, but any snow accumulations will
be light and less than a half inch. Still thinking there may be a
brief window of an hour or two of light freezing rain across inland
NW PA early this morning where wet-bulb temperatures are hovering
around 32. Any ice accumulations will be very light and confined to
elevated surfaces.

Otherwise, there should be a break in any heavier precipitation this
morning, before another weak low pressure develops across SE OH and
brings another round of rain and rain/snow mix later this afternoon,
mainly east of I-77.

Following both of these weak systems, drier air aloft arrives across
the region as a high pressure ridge attempts to build in from the
west. However, another subsidence inversion will develop by this
evening, trapping moisture from 850 mb down to the surface. Not only
will this allow clouds to stick around through much of the period,
but will introduce the chance for drizzle with the loss of cloud-ice
nuclei. There is also the potential for freezing drizzle on the back-
edge of the 850 mb moisture gradient early Monday morning as
temperatures fall into the lower 30s. Will be something to monitor
at the next update.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level shortwave trough will be moving across the Great
Lakes region Monday night into Tuesday morning. A weak cold front or
surface trough will be pushing across the area as well. There will
be limited moisture but enough for some light snow showers. A
uniformed northwesterly flow in the lower atmosphere will develop
across Lake Erie on Tuesday. This setup will continue to chance for
some scattered lake effect snow showers mainly for the primary
Snowbelt area. The scattered lake effect snow showers may linger
into Tuesday night over northwest Pennsylvania. Accumulations should
remain be light if any. High pressure moves in on Wednesday with
light and variable winds along with quiet weather.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The weather pattern for the end of the week looks fairly quiet and
uneventful. A large upper level storm system will develop across the
central CONUS by mid week and move towards the southeast into
Tennessee Valley. This weather system appears it will stay south of
the Upper Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes region as it moves
towards the Mid-Atlantic region by Saturday. We will continue to
remain in a cloudy but mostly dry weather pattern for the end of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Mainly MVFR across the TAF sites this morning with pockets of
IFR beginning to appear, mainly associated with low ceilings.
Precipitation, mainly in the form of rain, is moving north
through the Ohio Valley this morning which will result in brief
periods of MVFR to IFR vsbys. The best chance for snow will be
at TOL over the next several hours. Otherwise, tried to time out
the rain across the TAF sites through the early morning hours
with vsby restrictions. Following the rain, there could be a
period of mist through the late morning hours, with IFR ceilings
likely across the TAF sites. As we head towards later this
afternoon, drizzle is appearing the more likely scenario across
the TAF sites. This will result in MVFR vsbys/ceilings with
perhaps some lower IFR ceilings through the evening hours.

Winds are light and out of the east this morning. Winds will
remain less than 10 knots throughout the TAF period, shifting
towards the southwest by later this afternoon.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely with low ceilings throughout the day
Monday. Non-VFR likely again on Tuesday with rain and/or snow
showers. Non-VFR associated with low ceilings possible to
persist into Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Rather quiet marine conditions for early January are expected as a
series of weak ridges and weak troughs affect Lake Erie through
Thursday. The only impactful system of concern for the lake may be
Tuesday and Tuesday night. A frontal passage will bring westerly to
northwesterly winds of 10 to 20 knots any may allow waves to build to
2 to 4 feet along the southern shore of the central and eastern
basins. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed eventually. By the end
of the week, a low pressure system tracking south of the region may
bring some northeasterly winds around 15 knots and slightly higher
waves as well.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Kahn
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...Griffin

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
311 AM EST Sun Jan 3 2021

OHZ003-006>014-017>019-021>023-027-032-033-089-PAZ001-040815-
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-
Ashtabula Inland-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-
Wyandot-Stark-Mahoning-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-
311 AM EST Sun Jan 3 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio, northeast
Ohio, northwest Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-040815-
Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH-The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH-Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Detroit River Lt. to Maumee Bay OH to Reno Beach OH beyond 5NM
offshoreline to US-Canadian border-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
The Islands to Vermilion OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Willowick to Geneva-on-the-
Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border-Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
311 AM EST Sun Jan 3 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ020-028>031-036>038-047-040815-
Medina-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-
311 AM EST Sun Jan 3 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio and
northeast Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Patchy freezing drizzle may occur late tonight as temperatures hover
near freezing.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ002-003-040815-
Southern Erie-Crawford-
311 AM EST Sun Jan 3 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a slight chance of freezing rain early this morning. Any
freezing rain should be brief before temperatures warm above
freezing.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.