Special Weather Statement, NWS Cleveland, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
433 PM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak trough across the lower Great Lakes region will slowly
move southeast tonight into Wednesday. A more defined cold front
will cross the area on Thursday with a trough lingering through
Friday. High pressure will build in from the northwest Friday
night into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Showers and thunderstorms have developed across the forecast
area with some along the lake breeze in Northeast Ohio and then
along the instability gradient from North Central into Central
Ohio. In addition, convection is entering Northwest Ohio from
the west. Convection should continue spreading into Northwest
Ohio from the east and west and have some intensity and heavy
rain as this is the region with the highest instability with
temperatures in the 90 to 95 degree range. Some convection may
try to enter interior Northeast Ohio as the outflow from
convection surges southeast, but things are struggling at this
time. Will continue to follow radar trends and issue convective
products as appropriate with several severe thunderstorm
warnings, special weather statements, and flood advisories.

A weak surface trough will continue to move east across the
forecast area tonight and once diurnal heating wears off,
convection will be focused further north where some better upper
jet energy enters. Have highest chance PoPs near and over the
lake, dropping off slightly towards the south. The trough and
better jet energy will be across the area on Wednesday and
convection will perk up again during the afternoon hours,
focusing on the southeast portion of the area. There remains a
non-zero severe risk with instability rebuilding across the
region and with some jet energy aloft, things could become a bit
more organized than today, although the area could be the
southeast half of the area before racing off into PA and NY. The
trough slides southeast on Wednesday night as a cold front
approaches from the north, so rain chances will still be
expected although thunder and heavy rain will diminish.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
By Thursday, the upper trough becomes more positively tilted
and will sag south across the Great Lakes. Convective debris may
be in place across the area from Wednesday and Wednesday night,
so some uncertainty remains on how unstable we can get
Thursday. First thoughts are that the mid levels will be too dry
to support any widespread convection, even though we'll have
better deep layer shear with the trough. On Friday, the
unsettled pattern continues as the upper trough becomes less
progressive, stalls, and perhaps cuts off in the vicinity of the
eastern Great Lakes. This may provide enough low-level moisture
for some cloud cover on Friday, though the mid and upper levels
are fairly dry, so it may be hard to carry anything higher than
low-end chance showers at this time. Daytime heating and
steeper mid-level lapse rates may provide enough instability for
some afternoon and evening thunder as well.

Temperatures on Thursday and Friday will be back to normal to
slightly below normal, in the upper 70s to lower 80s; a welcome
relief from the heat and humidity from the past week.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The forecast cut-off upper low will progress east and south towards
the Mid-Atlantic Saturday and Sunday. Average to slightly below
average temperatures will continue to be expected for the July 4th
weekend. Slightly better moisture profile will be present on
Saturday, especially east of I-71, so could see some isolated to
scattered rain showers in the afternoon with perhaps some thunder
given . For now, thinking much of the area should be dry for July
4th (Sunday) with mostly pleasant weather. By Monday, upper ridging
begins to take hold across the Upper Midwest, extending into the
Great Lakes as the upper low moves into New England and eventually
off the coast by Monday night. A weak trough may brush the Great
Lakes on Monday night into Tuesday, so that will be something to
watch for precipitation chances Monday night into Tuesday. In
addition, normal to above average temperatures in the mid to upper
80s, in addition to increased low-level moisture, will arrive back
across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Cumulus field and shower and thunderstorm activity is expanding
across the region this afternoon as convection is beginning to
tap into the warm, moist air mass. The most troublesome area in
the near term will be along the lake breeze as convection
develops in NE OH and NW PA. Have TS in the TAFs for KERI and
KCLE at TAF issuance and will continue these over the next
several hours with vsby in moderate rain being the main concern
but some MVFR ceilings could briefly enter. Elsewhere, TS
chances are a bit more of a wild card but have at least a
vicinity mention for now. With current coverage trends, believe
that KTOL, KFDY, and KMFD could have a thunderstorm at the
terminal. Storms should diminish with the loss of diurnal
heating and have trends improving later this evening. Storms
over lower Michigan this evening will progress east across the
lake and could retain as some showers overnight at KERI have a
vicinity shower mention there. The warm moist air mass will
continue into Wednesday and another round of showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon will exist and have more vicinity
thunder mentioned late in the TAF period. Winds will be
generally south across the region with west to northwest winds
behind the lake breeze this afternoon.

Outlook...Periods of non-VFR possible with several rounds of
scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Generally light, south to southwesterly flow, around 10 knots, will
persist through Wednesday. Some increased flow near 15 knots may be
possible Wednesday afternoon before decreasing back around 10 knots
by Wednesday night into Thursday. By Thursday night, a cold front
may move across the lake, which could bring northerly flow, 15 to 20
knots Friday into Saturday. Will have to monitor for any marine-
related headlines during this period if trends increase.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Kahn
LONG TERM...Kahn
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Kahn

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
350 AM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-300800-
Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH-The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH-Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Detroit River Lt. to Maumee Bay OH to Reno Beach OH beyond 5NM
offshoreline to US-Canadian border-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
The Islands to Vermilion OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Willowick to Geneva-on-the-
Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border-Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
350 AM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-300800-
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-
Ashtabula Inland-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-
Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Marion-Morrow-
Holmes-Knox-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
350 AM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio, northeast
Ohio, northwest Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a marginal risk for isolated to widely scattered strong to
severe thunderstorms today, with the best chance west of I-71. The
primary threat will be damaging winds. Heavy rain and localized
flooding will be possible within any thunderstorms that develop
today.

High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s today. The
warm temperatures combined with a humid airmass will lead to heat
indices in the mid to upper 90s this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There is a marginal risk for isolated to widely scattered strong to
severe thunderstorms on Wednesday, with the best chance along and
east of I-71. The primary threat will be damaging winds. Heavy rain and localized
localized flooding will be possible within any thunderstorms that
develop.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
445 PM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021

OHZ003-006>008-292130-
Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Lucas-
445 PM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT OTTAWA...NORTHWESTERN
SANDUSKY...CENTRAL WOOD AND CENTRAL LUCAS COUNTIES...

At 445 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Waterville, or
near Bowling Green, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Toledo, Bowling Green, Perrysburg, Oregon, Rossford, Waterville,
Northwood, Genoa, Woodville, Weston, Maumee, Walbridge, Pemberville,
Millbury, Haskins, Luckey, Grand Rapids, Tontogany, Milton Center and
Stony Ridge.

LAT...LON 4168 8347 4144 8330 4128 8388 4144 8388
TIME...MOT...LOC 2045Z 241DEG 16KT 4145 8366

Kahn

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
449 PM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021

OHZ037-047-292130-
Morrow-Knox-
449 PM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN MORROW AND
KNOX COUNTIES...

At 448 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Sunbury to near Fredericktown.
Movement was northeast at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 55 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Mount Vernon, Fredericktown, Gambier, Utica, Centerburg,
Chesterville, Sparta, Waterford, Marengo, Fulton, Martinsburg and
North Liberty.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4024 8248 4027 8248 4027 8274 4028 8275
      4035 8275 4036 8286 4052 8280 4055 8258
      4055 8233 4024 8233
TIME...MOT...LOC 2048Z 238DEG 13KT 4020 8282 4044 8260

Jaszka

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
449 PM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021

OHZ020-031-292130-
Medina-Wayne-
449 PM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MEDINA AND NORTHERN WAYNE
COUNTIES...

At 449 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Lodi, or 13
miles southwest of Medina, moving east at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Medina, Brunswick, Wadsworth, Rittman, Doylestown, Lodi, Creston,
West Salem, Chippewa Lake, Hinckley, Seville, Westfield Center,
Spencer, Gloria Glens Park, Burbank, Congress, Chippewa-On-The-Lake
and Briarwood Beach.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4099 8213 4100 8216 4110 8217 4125 8173
      4109 8169 4099 8169 4099 8166 4096 8165
      4092 8213
TIME...MOT...LOC 2049Z 256DEG 16KT 4103 8207

Kahn

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
451 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     HAIL             1 S LAGRANGE            41.22N 82.12W
06/29/2021  E0.88 INCH       LORAIN             OH   PUBLIC

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL FELL FROM 410-417 PM.

&&

KEC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
509 PM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021

OHZ029>031-038-047-292200-
Holmes-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Knox-
509 PM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN
RICHLAND...SOUTHERN ASHLAND...SOUTHWESTERN WAYNE...WESTERN HOLMES AND
KNOX COUNTIES...

At 508 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Loudonville to Gambier to
Centerburg. Movement was northeast at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Wooster, Ashland, Mount Vernon, Loudonville, Fredericktown, Gambier,
Utica, Centerburg, Shreve, Danville, Killbuck, Hayesville, Glenmont,
Nashville, Butler, Perrysville, Jeromesville, Martinsburg, Gann and
North Liberty.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4024 8248 4027 8248 4028 8275 4035 8270
      4035 8265 4042 8264 4046 8261 4058 8245
      4086 8229 4087 8197 4051 8196 4045 8197
      4045 8218 4024 8220
TIME...MOT...LOC 2108Z 236DEG 23KT 4070 8227 4036 8242 4028 8268

Jaszka

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
535 PM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021

OHZ017-018-027-292215-
Seneca-Wyandot-Hancock-
535 PM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN SENECA...NORTHERN
WYANDOT AND EASTERN HANCOCK COUNTIES...

At 535 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Vanlue, or 9
miles east of Findlay, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fostoria, Sycamore, Arcadia, Vanlue, New Riegel, Carey, Mount
Blanchard, Wharton and Bascom.

LAT...LON 4103 8360 4117 8346 4117 8342 4120 8342
      4124 8333 4096 8315 4083 8349 4087 8363
TIME...MOT...LOC 2135Z 241DEG 11KT 4099 8347

Kahn