Special Weather Statement, NWS Cleveland, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
405 PM EDT Sun May 23 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move south across Lake Erie this evening, stalling
just south of the area on Monday. This front will lift back north
on Tuesday as low pressure passes north of the Great Lakes.
This system will pull a cold front back south across the area on
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front is located across Lake Erie late this afternoon that
will make slow progress south across the area tonight. Meanwhile
showers with scattered thunderstorms are expanding across lower
Michigan this afternoon where shortwave energy is rounding the ridge
and moisture advection is encountering the southerly moving front.
The airmass across northern Ohio remains fairly dry this afternoon
but moisture will advect southeast into the area. The first showers
will be approaching the Toledo area by 6 PM, and continue a
southeastward trajectory along and ahead of the front overnight.
Trends will be for instability to increase, both as the higher
dewpoints in the mid 60s at the surface and moisture aloft
reaches the area. Scattered thunderstorms remain possible
through the evening with a diminishing trend to convection after
midnight. As dewpoints come up overnight and the front stalls
overhead, patchy fog may develop late.

Mostly cloudy skies in place to start the day on Monday will scatter
with time, especially closer to Lake Erie with influence from the
marine layer. The frontal boundary is expected to stall from NW to
Central Ohio with temperatures across the northeastern half of the
forecast area settling back into the mid 70s to low 80s. Highs in NW
Ohio will likely see a late day peak as clouds scatter, but
some weak warm advection late will keep temperatures along the
I-75 corridor in the mid 80s with increasing humidity. In
addition, some scattered showers will continue along the frontal
boundary. Temperatures will be mild on Monday night as the
frontal boundary starts to lift back north.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The upper level ridge over the eastern United States will begin to
break down on Tuesday as a trough begins to develop over the north-
central Plains. As a result, Tuesday should remain mostly dry across
the area before the the low pressure associated with the trough
moves a warm front north across the area Tuesday evening into
Wednesday. Increased WAA and moisture advection across the area on
Tuesday will prime the atmosphere ahead of the approaching cold
front, resulting in widespread showers with the chance of
thunderstorms on Wednesday. Overnight on Wednesday high pressure
will build south across the area, allowing for conditions to dry
out. Temperatures on Tuesday will be quite warm, likely approaching
90 in most locations with overnight lows will be in the upper 60s
ahead of the cold front. For Wednesday, showers will likely keep
temperatures a bit cooler, only reaching into the low to mid 80s,
cooling even more overnight to be in the mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The long term forecast diverges quite a bit between guidance, making
it hard to have a good grasp on precipitation chances. Broadly
speaking, the beginning of the long term will be dominated by a high
pressure over the Great Lakes region. An upper level shortwave
trough is expected to begin to develop over the central Plains
Thursday afternoon and begin to move an associated low pressure
system towards the region. The exact track of this system and timing
varies amongst models, with the GFS bringing precipitation into the
area earlier than the ECMWF or Canadian models. Opted to keep a
chance of precipitation from Thursday through Saturday afternoon,
with the best chance of showers and possible thunder occurring with a
passing cold front on Friday afternoon. Friday looks to be the
coolest day in this stretch of the forecast as rain cooled air will
keep temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s. Once that system
moves out of the region, temperatures should again begin to
rise.&&

.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
VFR conditions with mostly sunny skies across the area will give
way to increasing cloud cover from the NW and scattered showers
and thunderstorms developing this evening ahead of a cold front
settling south across Lake Erie. Showers are expected to reach
TOL between 22-23z then continue southeast across the area
through about 06Z. Included either a TEMPO or VCTS at
TOL/CLE/MFD/CAK where best chances of thunderstorms are located
and will update the other terminals as needed. The frontal
boundary is expected to stall overhead tonight and combine with
the increasing low level moisture from the west to result in
widespread MVFR/IFR ceilings. High boundary layer moisture may
also result in some reduced visibilities with best chances for
fog at TOL. Otherwise west to northwest winds will shift to the
north/northeast and become light overnight into Monday.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and/or thunderstorms on
Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwesterly winds of 10-15 knots will continue across Lake
Erie ahead of an approaching cold front from the north this
evening. Behind the cold front, winds will shift and become
northerly then northeasterly by Monday morning. Winds should
persist in the 10-15 knots range, minimizing the risk of any
coastal flooding in the western basin. The frontal boundary will
stall south of the lakeshore before moving back north as a warm
front overnight Monday. Behind the front, winds will shift to
southwesterly, strengthening Tuesday afternoon to sustained
winds 15-20 knots. This continues to be the next period of focus
for potential marine headlines, although the largest waves
should remain in the open waters. Winds will shift to
northwesterly and weaken to 10-15 knots behind a cold front that
moves across the Great Lakes region Wednesday into Thursday.
Conditions ahead of this cold front late in the week will also
need to continue to be monitored for potential Small Craft
conditions.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...Campbell
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...Campbell

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
343 AM EDT Sun May 23 2021

OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-240745-
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-
Ashtabula Inland-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-
Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Marion-Morrow-
Holmes-Knox-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
343 AM EDT Sun May 23 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio, northeast
Ohio, northwest Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-240745-
Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH-The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH-Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Detroit River Lt. to Maumee Bay OH to Reno Beach OH beyond 5NM
offshoreline to US-Canadian border-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
The Islands to Vermilion OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Willowick to Geneva-on-the-
Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border-Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
343 AM EDT Sun May 23 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
718 PM EDT Sun May 23 2021

OHZ009-240000-
Erie-
718 PM EDT Sun May 23 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT ERIE COUNTY...

At 717 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Sandusky,
moving east at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 55 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sandusky, Castalia, Berlin Heights, Sandusky South and Fairview
Lanes.

LAT...LON 4147 8266 4147 8269 4142 8262 4138 8250
      4140 8242 4128 8245 4140 8282 4147 8282
      4147 8281 4144 8276 4146 8271 4149 8268
TIME...MOT...LOC 2317Z 277DEG 22KT 4143 8274

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
741 PM EDT Sun May 23 2021

OHZ009-010-019-240030-
Huron-Erie-Lorain-
741 PM EDT Sun May 23 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN HURON...ERIE AND
WESTERN LORAIN COUNTIES...

At 740 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Wakeman, or 9
miles southwest of Western Vermilion, moving east at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lorain, Elyria, Western Vermilion, Vermilion, Amherst, Wellington,
Wakeman, Sheffield Lake, Oberlin, Sheffield, Lagrange, Penfield,
South Amherst, Pittsfield, Berlin Heights, Kipton and Birmingham.

LAT...LON 4114 8210 4114 8217 4112 8218 4118 8254
      4139 8254 4138 8248 4143 8236 4143 8227
      4147 8218 4149 8210
TIME...MOT...LOC 2340Z 276DEG 20KT 4130 8244

26