Special Marine Warning 14, NWS Cleveland, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
130 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

...06z TAF Aviation Forecast Update...

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front was located from Lake Ontario to the north
shore of Lake Erie westward to south of Chicago this afternoon.
Low pressure will develop and strengthen over the Midwest
before moving northeastward across Ontario tonight. This low
will move northeast race into Quebec on Monday with a strong
cold front crossing the region. High pressure will arrive in the
wake of the cold front for the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
930 pm update...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch continues for the northwestern
portion of the CWA until 1 am EDT. We do expect strong to
severe convection to impact portions of northwest Ohio into the
western portions of Lake Erie through the late evening hours
with the main hazard being damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and
large hail. The isolated tornado threat is low but not zero.

Previous update...
Humid airmass in place across the region to the south of a
stationary front that was located from Lake Ontario to the north
shore of Lake Erie westward to south of Chicago. Convergence
along a lake breeze will also assist in producing thunderstorms
through the afternoon with outflow boundaries moving them around
into the evening.

For later in the evening into the overnight our attention will
shift to the convection that is currently moving into western
Illinois. This convection will ride near the stationary boundary
as an MCS and may begin to impact NW OH shortly after sunset.
Strong to severe winds will be possible with the leading edge
of the MCS. There is some uncertainty after midnight if the
convection will lift into MI and southern Ontario or race
across northern Ohio. For now we have gone with most of the
convection lifting to the northwest of the CWA and adjust from
there. We will also have to monitor for some locally heavy
rainfall where we get any training with the MCS. Lows tonight in
the 60's to lower 70's

The boundary from the MCS and a cold front will move across the
region from west to east on Monday. There should be a new round
of convection that develops along one of the boundaries or
maybe even both as we move toward Monday evening. Strong to
severe convection will once again be possible until we can push
the humid airmass east of the area. Locally heavy rainfall will
again be possible. Highs on Monday will rang from the upper 70's
west to the mid 80's east.

Models are hinting that the frontal boundary may slow late
Monday afternoon into the evening with another ripple of low
pressure moving northward along it. So will keep some higher
POP's across the eastern CWA until around 06Z Tuesday. The cold
front should finally get another good push eastward through
sunrise on Tuesday. It will be cooler and drier in the wake of
the front with lows in the upper 40's to mid 50's.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Upper-level trough will be making its way east across the Great
Lakes region with the lowest 500mb temperatures over the local area
Tuesday night. High pressure at the surface will move east across
the Ohio Valley Tuesday and Wednesday, and located near the mid-
Atlantic region by Wednesday night. The airmass with this system
will be unusually cold with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees below
normal with highs in 60s Tuesday afternoon. Southerly winds on the
backside of the high should result in slight temperature recovery on
Wednesday with highs back into the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
After a brief stint of ridging aloft Thursday, a shortwave trough
moves east across the upper Midwest and southern Great Lakes by
Friday. Return flow ahead of this shortwave and large scale trough
should result in increased moisture to the region with increasing
chances of precipitation Friday through the weekend. Model ensemble
average has the best chance for precipitation on Saturday. Near
normal temperatures are expected through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
The main concerns for aviation during this TAF period will be
the threat for scattered strong to severe convection impacting
airports across northwest Ohio and near the lakeshore areas
through Monday morning. VFR conditions are expected through
sunrise outside of showers and convection. We will see drops in
ceilings and visibilities to MVFR to IFR at times briefly with
heavier downpours and convection cores that move closer to
airports. Any severe convection will have the potential of
large hail and severe wind gusts up to 60 knots. We have tried
to timed the impacts of TSRA with tempo groups from west to east
through the mid morning hours. -SHRA and borderline MVFR
ceilings to VFR ceilings will be around through the morning
hours. Marginal MVFR ceilings will continue through the
afternoon/evening Monday.

Winds will start out southerly around 10 knots and increase
through the early mornings with gusts. Southwesterly winds will
be around in the morning 15 knots gusting around 25 knots or
more. A cold front passage will shift the winds midday and
afternoon from the west to northwest around 15 knots gusts to 25
knots. Winds will slowly relax after sunset Monday evening.

Outlook...Non-VFR conditions possible in showers late Thursday
night.

&&

.MARINE...
South to southwest winds will begin to increase tonight to around 20
knots by Monday morning. West winds of around 15 to 25 knots will
continue through the day, which will veer to out of the northwest
with the frontal passage. northwest winds will be 20 to 25 knots
through Monday evening and early Monday night before rapidly
diminishing to 15 knots or less by early Tuesday morning. A Small
Craft Advisory will be issued for the entire Lake Erie nearshore
Monday morning through early Tuesday morning.

High pressure will build east across the Ohio Valley on Tuesday and
Wednesday, moving off to the New England coast by Thursday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement from 5 AM EDT early this morning
     through late tonight for OHZ003-007-009>012-089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement from 5 AM EDT early this morning
     through late tonight for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 6 AM EDT
     Tuesday for LEZ142>149.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MM
NEAR TERM...Griffin/MM
SHORT TERM...Saunders
LONG TERM...Saunders
AVIATION...Griffin
MARINE...Saunders

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
616 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021

OHZ003-007-009-010-212230-
Lucas-Ottawa-Erie-Lorain-
616 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 295 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY...
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH
LATE MONDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio and
northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.
   Beach Hazards Statement.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

LEZ142>145-162>165-OHZ006-008-017>019-027-028-212230-
Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
The Islands to Vermilion OH-Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Detroit River Lt. to Maumee Bay OH to Reno Beach OH beyond 5NM
offshoreline to US-Canadian border-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
The Islands to Vermilion OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Wood-Sandusky-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Wyandot-Crawford-
616 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 295 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie, north central Ohio
and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

LEZ061-146>149-166>169-OHZ013-014-020>023-029>033-036>038-047-PAZ002-
003-212230-
Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Avon Point to Willowick OH-Willowick to Geneva-on-
the Lake OH-Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Willowick to Geneva-on-the-
Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border-Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-Medina-Summit-Portage-
Trumbull-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Marion-Morrow-Holmes-
Knox-Southern Erie-Crawford-
616 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie, north central
Ohio, northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ011-012-089-PAZ001-212230-
Cuyahoga-Lake-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-
616 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH
LATE MONDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Ohio and northwest
Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1133 PM EDT SUN JUN 20 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SW WHITEHOUSE         41.47N 83.85W
06/20/2021                   LUCAS              OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ON WIRES AT NEOWASH RD AND JEFFERS
            RD. TIME ESTIMATED VIA RADAR.

&&

ANM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1135 PM EDT SUN JUN 20 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1019 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 N WHITEHOUSE          41.58N 83.80W
06/20/2021  M51 MPH          LUCAS              OH   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KTOL TOLEDO.

&&

ANM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1218 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

OHZ003-006-210500-
Wood-Lucas-
1218 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN WOOD AND LUCAS
COUNTIES...

At 1218 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Holland, or 8
miles west of Toledo, moving east at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Toledo, Swanton, Perrysburg, Oregon, Sylvania, Rossford, Northwood,
Whitehouse, Holland, Maumee, Ottawa Hills, Walbridge, Millbury,
Berkey, Harbor View and Stony Ridge.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM EDT for
northwestern Ohio.

LAT...LON 4172 8388 4173 8346 4171 8347 4171 8345
      4170 8346 4169 8344 4170 8344 4169 8343
      4169 8341 4150 8341 4152 8388
TIME...MOT...LOC 0418Z 257DEG 42KT 4166 8374

Campbell

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1240 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

OHZ003-007-210530-
Ottawa-Lucas-
1240 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT OTTAWA AND NORTHEASTERN LUCAS
COUNTIES...

At 1240 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Oregon, or 10
miles east of Toledo, moving east at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Port Clinton, Oregon, Oak Harbor, Genoa, Rocky Ridge, Clay Center,
Reno Beach, Williston and Bono.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4169 8342 4169 8335 4171 8334 4164 8323
      4161 8309 4152 8297 4151 8299 4152 8292
      4149 8288 4149 8296 4147 8298 4147 8306
      4150 8341
TIME...MOT...LOC 0440Z 271DEG 38KT 4162 8339

Campbell

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1245 AM EDT MON JUN 21 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1106 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S ERIE                42.09N 80.09W
06/20/2021                   ERIE               PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON HOUSE ON W 39TH ST AND TREE
            DOWN ON HOUSE NEARBY ON MELROSE AVE. TIME
            ESTIMATED VIA RADAR.

&&

ANM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
155 AM EDT MON JUN 21 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1236 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 1 NNW FAIRPORT HARBOR   41.76N 81.28W
06/21/2021  M49 MPH          LAKE               OH   C-MAN STATION

            C-MAN STATION FAIO1 FAIRPORT, OH.

&&

ANM