Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
414 PM EST Thu Dec 30 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will generally prevail until a strong cold front
moves through late Sunday. Much colder high pressure will then
return for early to middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
This Evening: Radar indicates several bands of showers and
scattered thunderstorms impacting our area, moving generally to
the NE. Isolated severe storms are possible, so a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect for portions of our area
through this evening. These storms are being generated from
quite a bit of instability for late December, resulting from
near record high temperatures this afternoon. SPC Mesoscale
Analysis indicates MLCAPE values 1,000-1,500 J/kg, highest
across our southwestern counties. Effective bulk shear is 40-50
kt. However, wind profiles don't show too much veering. The main
risk remains damaging winds. Though, a weak tornado can't be
ruled out. Also, colder temperatures aloft could generate some
hail in the strongest storms. The severe risk will diminish
after sunset, as we lose instability from the daytime heating.

Tonight: Mid-level flow will stay from the southwest. At the
surface, a front will be to our northwest and north. All of the
synoptic models and the CAMS indicate an area of showers over
our area in the evening, then shifting offshore and dissipating.
Expect plenty of cloud cover after the showers end. There could
even be some patches of fog. Expect temperatures to be very
mild. Low temperatures will be above the normal high
temperatures for late December.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure located southeast of the area will continue to extend
over the region Friday into Saturday. There is a risk for showers on
Friday, however there isn't a lot of forcing to work with so
coverage should stay fairly isolated (PoPs ~20%). On Saturday,
relatively drier air and lack of instability will support a dry
forecast. The most notable aspect will be the continued stretch of
unseasonably warm temperatures. Highs both days are forecast to be
within a few degrees of records, generally in the upper 70s to
around 80, perhaps even a few spots near the Altamaha in the lower
80s on Saturday. Lows will be very mild in the low to mid 60s (these
values are what our normal December highs are). See climate section
below for more info.

The pattern will then begin to change as a highly amplified mid
level trough swings into the eastern U.S. and sends a cold front
towards the area. Frontal progression has slowed and models now
bring it through later Sunday afternoon or Sunday evening. The first
half of the day should see less activity then rain chances will
increase from the west with the front. Wind fields are quite
impressive with this system, with 0-6 km shear of over 60 knots.
Model ensembles are showing weak instability, generally 250-500
J/kg, which could limit severe potential but the strong dynamics
could be enough to overcome that. Even outside of showers and
thunderstorms, a tight pressure gradient will lead to gusty winds. A
Lake Wind Advisory could be needed for Lake Moultrie. Given the
slower frontal progression, we should be able to squeeze in one more
day of 70+ degree temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front and associated precipitation will push offshore Sunday
night. High pressure will then return for the early to middle of
next week. Models hint at a coastal trough developing during the
latter half of the period which could bring a few showers to the
area. Otherwise, it will be noticeably cooler than recent days.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
21Z Update: Showers and occasional thunderstorms are expected to
bring flight restrictions into the evening. The more likely
impacts are for KCHS and KJZI, where we have a TEMPO group.
We'll continue to amend the TAFs based on radar trends and
surface observations. The showers/thunderstorms end after
midnight. Then, ceilings are expected to drop to IFR and persist
through daybreak Friday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions are possible in
morning low clouds/fog Saturday and Sunday and in showers and
thunderstorms late Sunday associated with a cold front. In addition,
gusty winds are likely this weekend, especially on Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: Strong thunderstorms will impact the waters through
this evening. The main impact will be gusty winds. Southwest
winds 15 kt early in the evening will increase to 15-20 kt late
in the evening and overnight, then ease a bit before daybreak
Friday. Some gusts could approach 25 kt across the Charleston
County waters and maybe the GA waters beyond 20 nm. However, the
areal and time coverage is too small to warrant a Small Craft
Advisory. Seas will average 2-3 ft, except 3-4 ft across the
Charleston County waters.

Friday through Tuesday: South to southwest flow will persist on
Friday with speeds less than 15 knots. Winds will then steadily
increase on Saturday as a strong cold front begins to approach from
the west. Small Craft Advisories are likely for most, if not all,
waters Saturday night which will continue through Sunday night
following frontal passage. There is also a chance for gale force
gusts, mainly across the outer Georgia waters and Charleston county
waters. Gale Watches and/or Warnings could eventually be needed.
Conditions will improve for Monday and Tuesday as high pressure
returns and the pressure gradient eases.

Sea fog: A warm and moist air mass will remain in place across the
local Atlantic waters through Saturday and as a result some sea fog
could eventually develop over the cooler near shore waters. Also,
some land fog could advect into the marine area. Dense Fog
Advisories will be possible if any dense fog develops and becomes
widespread enough.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Daily High Max Temps

Dec 31:
KCHS 78 (1996, 1984)
KCXM 77 (1996)
KSAV 80 (2015, 1973)

Jan 1:
KCHS 80 (1952)
KCXM 78 (1952)
KSAV 83 (2019)

Jan 2:
KCHS 81 (2017)
KCXM 77 (1952, 1916)
KSAV 79 (2019, 2017, 1952)

Record Daily High Min Temps

Dec 31:
KSAV 66 (2015)

Jan 1:
KCHS 61 (2019, 1973)
KCXM 62 (2019)
KSAV 62 (2019)

Record Warmest Decembers

KCHS 63.5 (2015), 58.8 (1971), 57.1 (1984)
KCXM 63.4 (2015), 61.3 (1931), 59.5 (1971)
KSAV 64.2 (2015), 62.8 (1931), 60.6 (1971)

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...ETM
LONG TERM...ETM
AVIATION...ETM
MARINE...ETM
CLIMATE...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston SC
339 PM EST Thu Dec 30 2021

AMZ330-GAZ116>119-137>141-SCZ044-050-052-312045-
Charleston Harbor-Inland Bryan-Coastal Bryan-Inland Chatham-
Coastal Chatham-Long-Inland Liberty-Coastal Liberty-Inland McIntosh-
Coastal McIntosh-Dorchester-Charleston-Tidal Berkeley-
339 PM EST Thu Dec 30 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters,
southeast Georgia and southeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter assistance is not anticipated at this time.

GAZ087-088-099>101-114-115-SCZ040-042-043-047>049-051-312045-
Jenkins-Screven-Candler-Bulloch-Effingham-Tattnall-Evans-Allendale-
Hampton-Inland Colleton-Inland Jasper-Beaufort-Coastal Colleton-
Coastal Jasper-
339 PM EST Thu Dec 30 2021

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 572 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Georgia and
southeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter assistance is not anticipated at this time.

AMZ350-352-354-374-312045-
Waters from South Santee River to Edisto Beach SC out 20 NM-
Waters from Edisto Beach SC to Savannah GA out 20 NM-
Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA out 20 NM, including
Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary-
Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA from 20 to 60 NM-
339 PM EST Thu Dec 30 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Gales: Gale force wind gusts are possible over the coastal waters
Sunday and Sunday night. Gale Watches and Warnings could eventually
be needed.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter assistance is not anticipated at this time.

SCZ045-312045-
Inland Berkeley-
339 PM EST Thu Dec 30 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Lake Winds: Gusty winds are expected to develop over Lake Moultrie
Sunday into Sunday night. A Lake Wind Advisory could be needed.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter assistance is not anticipated at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston SC
439 PM EST Thu Dec 30 2021

GAZ114-302215-
Tattnall-
439 PM EST Thu Dec 30 2021

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF TATTNALL COUNTY...

At 439 PM EST, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm near Reidsville, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar Indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Reidsville, Gordonia Altamaha State Park and Mendes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify. Be certain to monitor local radio and TV
stations as well as local cable TV outlets for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect. Thunderstorms can produce
large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes suddenly, sometimes
with little or no warning. Be alert for rapidly changing weather
conditions and be ready to act quickly if severe weather is observed
or a warning is issued.

Report damage directly to the Charleston National Weather Service at
888-383-2024 when it is safe to do so. You can also email your
report to nws.charlestonsc@noaa.gov.

&&

LAT...LON 3208 8220 3213 8199 3208 8198 3205 8189
      3205 8187 3202 8182 3190 8215 3191 8222
TIME...MOT...LOC 2139Z 261DEG 19KT 3199 8213

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

NED

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston SC
449 PM EST Thu Dec 30 2021

SCZ045-302215-
Inland Berkeley-
449 PM EST Thu Dec 30 2021

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF BERKELEY COUNTY...

At 449 PM EST, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm over Old Santee Canal State Park, or near Moncks
Corner, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph and up to nickel sized hail.

SOURCE...Radar Indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to plants,
         trees and crops is possible. Damage to windshields is
         unlikely.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Moncks Corner, Bonneau, Jamestown, Old Santee Canal State Park and
Pinopolis.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Report damage directly to the Charleston National Weather Service at
888-383-2024 when it is safe to do so. You can also email your
report to nws.charlestonsc@noaa.gov.

&&

LAT...LON 3332 7974 3332 7970 3330 7966 3327 7956
      3324 7950 3325 7948 3323 7948 3324 7946
      3321 7945 3321 7947 3319 7950 3310 8003
      3326 8006 3336 7978
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 252DEG 44KT 3322 7994

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

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