Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
701 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will prevail across the area into the upcoming
weekend. A front will drop into the area late Sunday.
Meanwhile, Tropical Cyclone Fred is expected to move across the
eastern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday and then affect the Southeast
Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 7 PM: Scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop
along an old outflow boundary across inland GA and SC through
mid-evening. The forecast update will feature isolated to
scattered PoPs along the boundary through 2Z. Otherwise, the
forecast appeared on track.

Previous Discussion:
Rest of today: Deep-layer ridging will continue to prevail as well
as plenty of dry air as seen on mid-level water vapor imagery. The
subsidence has limited convective activity thus far across most of
the area. Although, from KCLX, a boundary can be seen moving
southeast, across our northern SE GA and SE SC counties. Along the
boundary, isolated to scattered convection has been occurring. With
MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg, isolated showers and thunderstorms will be
possible for the rest of the afternoon across the forecast area
along any existing/new boundaries that form.

Tonight: Once daytime heating is lost, any lingering showers and
thunderstorms should quickly diminish. Cloud cover overnight should
be minimal and light winds are expected. Low temperatures will be in
the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A broad ridge aloft and at the surface will persist Thursday
through Saturday. Large scale subsidence will limit convective
development Thursday and Friday with only a few showers and
tstms far inland closer to the lee trough. Slightly better
convective coverage is anticipated on Saturday due to weak
shortwave energy moving into southeast GA during the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The pattern drastically shifts on Sunday as Tropical Cyclone
Fred moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico and low/mid level
flow turns southeasterly across the local area. A deep tropical
moisture plume will advect into the Southeast on Sunday while a
surface front sinks toward the area from the north. The front
may stall near or over the area on Monday. Although uncertainty
remains very high, the remnants of Fred could move into the Deep
South and through GA and the Carolinas early next week. There
are some hints that a Predecessor Rainfall Event (PRE) could
occur due to the interaction between Fred and an in-situ
baroclinic zone. It's too early to predict the locations of
greatest concern, but it certainly bears watching for an
enhanced flooding rainfall threat.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR through 00Z Friday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
should develop inland of the terminals along an old outflow
boundary through mid-evening. Storms should remain too far away
from the terminals to carry TS in the TAFs.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Low chance for brief visibility
reductions in showers/tstms Saturday afternoon. Better chance
for visibility and/or ceiling restrictions Sunday through Monday
as deep tropical moisture overspreads the area ahead of
Tropical Cyclone Fred.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: Atlantic high pressure will prevail overnight. Southerly
winds will be less than 15 knots with seas 1-2 feet.

Atlantic high pressure will remain the dominant weather feature
through late week, before a front approaches the region from
the northwest on Sunday. The remnants of TC Fred could affect
the area late Sunday through Tuesday. At this time we are not
anticipating a significant wind event. However, an increase in
long-period swells is possible early next week with some 6
footers possible over the offshore GA waters.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...NED
MARINE...JRL/RAD

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston SC
328 AM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-
042>045-047>052-120730-
Charleston Harbor-
Waters from South Santee River to Edisto Beach SC out 20 NM-
Waters from Edisto Beach SC to Savannah GA out 20 NM-
Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA out 20 NM, including
Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary-
Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA from 20 to 60 NM-
Jenkins-Screven-Candler-Bulloch-Effingham-Tattnall-Evans-
Inland Bryan-Coastal Bryan-Inland Chatham-Coastal Chatham-Long-
Inland Liberty-Coastal Liberty-Inland McIntosh-Coastal McIntosh-
Allendale-Hampton-Inland Colleton-Dorchester-Inland Berkeley-
Inland Jasper-Beaufort-Coastal Colleton-Charleston-Coastal Jasper-
Tidal Berkeley-
328 AM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters,
southeast Georgia and southeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter assistance is not anticipated at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston SC
738 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

SCZ042-120015-
Hampton-
738 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF HAMPTON COUNTY...

At 737 PM EDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm over Hampton. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar Indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Hampton, Lake Warren State Park, Varnville, Estill, Furman, Luray,
Crocketville and Lena.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify. Be certain to monitor local radio and TV
stations as well as local cable TV outlets for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

Report damage directly to the Charleston National Weather Service at
888-383-2024 when it is safe to do so. You can also email your
report to nws.charlestonsc@noaa.gov.

&&

LAT...LON 3284 8091 3265 8115 3265 8116 3282 8128
      3296 8106
TIME...MOT...LOC 2337Z 288DEG 2KT 3283 8113

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

NED