Special Marine Warning 26, NWS Charleston, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
730 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend across the region through tonight. A
series of upper level disturbances could bring unsettled
weather through mid week before a cold front crosses the region
late Wednesday into Thursday. Dry high pressure is then
expected to prevail through next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
The overall severe risk is slowly diminishing as the sea breeze
pushes farther inland. It is becoming increasingly likely that
much of the area from Allendale into Berkeley and possibly the
Charleston Metro Area will continue to receive some much needed
rainfall over the next few hours. Pops have been adjusted to
account for current radar trends and short term model
projections. While there is still a window for an isolated
severe tstm over mainly Berkeley into southern Dorchester
Counties as well as back to the west from Metter to Sylvania,
the window is steadily shrinking. Trends are closely being
monitored.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Tuesday and Tuesday Night: An upper level shortwave will pass to our
west, however it may produce enough forcing for scattered showers
and thunderstorms to develop over the inland counties Tuesday
afternoon. CAPE values 500 - 1000 J/kg indicate that thunderstorms
are also possible. Tuesday's temperatures will be above average,
with highs in the mid 80s to around 90 in some locations. Overnight
low temperatures will be rather mild, with lows around 70.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night: Another upper level shortwave
embedded in the zonal flow aloft will produce the chance for
some showers and thunderstorms to develop Wednesday afternoon.
Models are showing that the precipitation associated with the
cold front is not able to make it to the coast. Similar to many
other instances this spring, a convective structure is
forecasted to form over the Florida panhandle, cutting off
moisture transport and essentially starving our area of any
moisture which would support shower/storm development. Any
showers/thunderstorms that are able to develop will most likely
be limited to the far southern inland GA counties. POPs
Wednesday afternoon have been adjusted down. Temperatures
Wednesday will be above average again, with highs topping out in
the mid to upper 80s. Overnight temperatures will reach into
the low to mid 60s.

Thursday: A 500mb trough is forecasted to swing through the
southeastern states Thursday afternoon, bringing yet another chance
for showers and thunderstorms. However, precipitation chances
Thursday are uncertain at this point. Models are not in agreement,
with some bringing in precipitation in the morning/early afternoon,
while others are dry.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
After an upper level trough swings out over the eastern CONUS
Thursday and into Friday, zonal flow aloft is expected through
Monday. The next rain chances are Monday, however models are
beginning to back off on the precipitation chances and POPs have
been reduced from the last forecast. Temperatures are expected to
return to closer to average, with highs generally in the upper 70s
to around 80 and overnight lows in the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Convective trends are being monitored for possible impacts to
mainly KCHS around 00z. The decision to include any mention of
TSRA will be dependent on radar trends closer to issuance time.
No convection is expected at KSAV this evening. VFR is expected
for much of the period. There are some indications that some
low-clouds could ooze into Southeast Georgia closer to
daybreak, which may impact KSAV. SREF IFR probabilities look
highest west of the KSAV terminal, but local LAV guidance
favors it. Given the uncertainty this far out, no mention will
be included at this time. This will have to be watched carefully
however, as IFR cigs could come in right near the initial push
of morning traffic.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR. There is a chance for
brief flight restrictions with any showers/thunderstorms
Tuesday/Wednesday afternoon. Friday afternoon could see gusty
northwesterly winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: South to southwest flow will prevail across the local
waters through the overnight period. The winds over the Charleston
Harbor are expected to gust 22-25 kt, but should be short-
lived, thus a Small Craft Advisory will not be issued as of now.
Seas are expected to average 2-4 feet across the waters.

Several upper level disturbances will produce periodic elevated
winds and seas. Both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons there is a
chance for some gusty southwesterly winds over the waters, however
no values reach Small Craft Advisory criteria. Seas generally 2 to 3
feet, with 4 feet possible in the far offshore waters Tuesday and
Wednesday. Winds Thursday are expected to be northerly around 10
knots with seas 2 to 3 feet. Friday the next upper level disturbance
makes its way across the region, bringing elevated winds. Wind gusts
Friday 15 to 20 knots with seas 2 to 3 feet. Friday night and beyond
winds around 10 knots and seas around 2 feet are expected.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston SC
138 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021

AMZ350-352-354-374-GAZ101-114>119-137>141-SCZ047>049-051-041745-
Waters from South Santee River to Edisto Beach SC out 20 NM-
Waters from Edisto Beach SC to Savannah GA out 20 NM-
Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA out 20 NM, including
Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary-
Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA from 20 to 60 NM-
Effingham-Tattnall-Evans-Inland Bryan-Coastal Bryan-Inland Chatham-
Coastal Chatham-Long-Inland Liberty-Coastal Liberty-Inland McIntosh-
Coastal McIntosh-Inland Jasper-Beaufort-Coastal Colleton-
Coastal Jasper-
138 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters,
southeast Georgia and southeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter assistance is not anticipated at this time.

AMZ330-GAZ087-088-099-100-SCZ040-042>045-050-052-041745-
Charleston Harbor-Jenkins-Screven-Candler-Bulloch-Allendale-Hampton-
Inland Colleton-Dorchester-Inland Berkeley-Charleston-Tidal Berkeley-
138 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters,
southeast Georgia and southeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Severe Thunderstorms: Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are
possible this evening into tonight with the primary hazards being
damaging wind gusts and hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter assistance is not anticipated at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston SC
734 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021

SCZ045-040000-
Inland Berkeley-
734 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF BERKELEY COUNTY...

...MARINERS ON LAKE MOULTRIE SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR...

At 734 PM EDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm near Cross, or 13 miles northwest of Moncks
Corner, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph and up to nickel sized hail.

SOURCE...Radar Indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to plants,
         trees and crops is possible. Damage to windshields is
         unlikely.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Moncks Corner, Saint Stephen, Bonneau, Southern Lake Moultrie, Cross,
Northern Lake Moultrie, Bonneau Beach and Old Santee Canal State
Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Boaters on Lake Moultrie should seek safe harbor immediately. If
caught on the open water, stay as low as possible and wear a personal
flotation device. Remember, if you can hear thunder you are at risk
for being struck by lightning.

Report damage directly to the Charleston National Weather Service at
888-383-2024 when it is safe to do so. You can also email your
report to nws.charlestonsc@noaa.gov.

&&

LAT...LON 3341 7991 3314 7994 3319 8027 3329 8027
      3330 8025 3337 8024
TIME...MOT...LOC 2334Z 272DEG 29KT 3328 8022

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

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