Areal Flood Advisory 28, NWS Charleston, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
401 PM EDT Sat Jun 5 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Atlantic high pressure will prevail through late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
This Evening and Tonight: Aloft, weak ridging will be in place
across the Southeast while a low remains centered across the South
Central United States. At the sfc, the area will remain positioned
along the western periphery of Atlantic high pressure and to the
east of weak troughing well inland. Light southerly flow will
prevail with these features in place, feeding deep moisture
into the area and resulting in shower and thunderstorms through
at least early evening hours.

Latest radar trends and hires guidance suggest showers and
thunderstorms will continue to occur along an inland moving sea
breeze, while outflow/boundary interactions support additional
development across inland areas as weak mid-lvl shortwave energy
traverses aloft. SBCAPE between 3000-4000 J/kg, DCAPE between 800-
1000 J/kg, Lifted Index values around -6C, 0-6km bulk shear around
20-25 kt, and poor mid-lvl lapse rates suggest most convection will
be pulse type in nature, but a few stronger and/or marginally severe
thunderstorms can not be ruled out with strong wind gusts, small
hail and heavy downpours being the primary concerns, mainly until an
hour or two after sunset. Soundings do indicate deep saturated
moisture profiles (PWATS around 2.0 inches) and weak steering flow
in place, while water vapor imagery along with sfc dewpts in the low-
mid 70s also support an atmosphere prime for heavy showers and
thunderstorms. Should convective activity continue and become
enhanced with outflow/boundary interactions, Flood Advisories could
be needed.

Most convection should wane during the overnight period, but a
few showers and/or thunderstorms are still possible through the
night given sufficient instability, deep moisture and weak h5
shortwave traversing aloft. Overnight lows should remain mild
with some clouds across the area, generally dipping into the
upper 60s/around 70 well inland to low/mid 70s near the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Atlantic high pressure will prevail while weak troughing remains
inland through the short term. Plentiful moisture will remain across
the area leading to showers/thunderstorms. Most coverage of
showers/thunderstorms will be in the afternoon during peak daytime
heating and when instability is at its maximum. While the overall
severe threat remains low, a stronger storm cannot be ruled out.
Drier air will briefly move into the area on Tuesday. Although,
showers and thunderstorms will still be possible due to lingering
moisture. High temperatures will be in the mid 80s to low 90s with
low 80s along the coast. Low temperatures will be upper 60s to mid
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will continue to be the predominant feature, although
weak troughing inland will keep moisture in the region. Therefore,
showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day, mainly in the
afternoon where instability is maximized and boundary interactions
are likely to occur. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to
mid 90s each day. Lows will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
and/or continue across the area late this afternoon, with
greatest chances occurring at the CHS and SAV terminals during
the next few hours (20Z-22Z). Brief flight restrictions are
possible during showers/thunderstorms, potentially resulting in
MVFR/IFR conditions at times. Expect VFR conditions to return at
all terminals early evening and persist through much of the
night. There is a small risk for flight restrictions at the
terminals late tonight and heading into daybreak due to low
clouds and/or fog, but confidence remains too low to include at
the terminals at this time. Scattered showers/thunderstorms
should also return across the early Sunday afternoon, and could
need to be included in later taf issuances.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief flight restrictions are
possible due to low clouds during overnight periods and low
vsbys during afternoon showers/thunderstorms each day.

&&

.MARINE...
This Evening and Tonight: Southerly flow will prevail across
local waters as the area remains positioned along the western
periphery of Atlantic high pressure and to the east of weak
troughing well inland. In general, wind speeds should remain
around 10-15 kt or less, gradually weakening during the second
half of the night. Seas should average between 2-4 ft, largest
across offshore Georgia waters.

Sunday through Thursday: Atlantic high pressure will prevail across
the waters. Southerly winds less than 15 knots are expected and seas
will be between 2-4 feet.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The KSAV ASOS remains out of service until further notice.
Manual observations are being taken except between the hours of
midnight and 6 AM EDT. Observations will not be available during
these hours. Climate information for the site will be
diminished or not available.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DPB
MARINE...DPB
EQUIPMENT...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston SC
411 PM EDT Sat Jun 5 2021

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-042-
047>052-062015-
Charleston Harbor-
Waters from South Santee River to Edisto Beach SC out 20 NM-
Waters from Edisto Beach SC to Savannah GA out 20 NM-
Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA out 20 NM, including
Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary-
Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA from 20 to 60 NM-
Jenkins-Screven-Candler-Bulloch-Effingham-Tattnall-Evans-
Inland Bryan-Coastal Bryan-Inland Chatham-Coastal Chatham-Long-
Inland Liberty-Coastal Liberty-Inland McIntosh-Coastal McIntosh-
Allendale-Hampton-Inland Jasper-Beaufort-Coastal Colleton-Charleston-
Coastal Jasper-Tidal Berkeley-
411 PM EDT Sat Jun 5 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters,
southeast Georgia and southeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter assistance is not anticipated at this time.

SCZ043>045-062015-
Inland Colleton-Dorchester-Inland Berkeley-
411 PM EDT Sat Jun 5 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Heavy Rainfall: Clusters of slow moving showers and thunderstorms
are expected across the area this evening, some of which could
produce heavy rainfall and result in flooding at times. Flood
Advisories could be needed into early evening hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter assistance is not anticipated at this time.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
413 PM EDT SAT JUN 05 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0412 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 E COLLEGE PARK        33.02N  80.05W
06/05/2021  M6.85 INCH       BERKELEY           SC   MESONET

            6.85" OF RAIN SINCE 230PM.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS2100214

JRL