Winter Storm Watch 2, NWS Caribou, ME

069 
WWUS41 KCAR 311112
WSWCAR

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Caribou ME
612 AM EST Sun Jan 31 2021

MEZ015>017-029-030-311915-
/O.CON.KCAR.WS.A.0002.210202T0500Z-210203T1200Z/
Southern Penobscot-Interior Hancock-Central Washington-Coastal
Hancock-Coastal Washington-
Including the cities of Orono, Perry, Orland, Calais, Old Town,
Grand Lake Stream, Eastport, Castine, Aurora, Bar Harbor, Wesley,
Cherryfield, Princeton, Machias, Dedham, Bangor, Great Pond,
Eastbrook, Brewer, Bucksport, Amherst, and Ellsworth
612 AM EST Sun Jan 31 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT 
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 7 to 12 
  inches. Highest amounts inland away from the immediate coast. Snow 
  will likely mix with or change to sleet & rain at times especially 
  along and near the coast. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of Coastal DownEast, Interior DownEast, and 
  Penobscot Valley Maine.

* WHEN...From late Monday night through Wednesday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions 
  could impact the Tuesday morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant snow, 
sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to 
monitor the latest forecasts.

&&

$$

MEZ001>006-010-011-031-032-311915-
/O.CON.KCAR.WS.A.0002.210202T1200Z-210203T1800Z/
Northwest Aroostook-Northeast Aroostook-Northern Somerset-
Northern Piscataquis-Northern Penobscot-Southeast Aroostook-
Central Piscataquis-Central Penobscot-Southern Piscataquis-
Northern Washington-
Including the cities of Sherman, Mount Katahdin, East
Millinocket, Guilford, Howland, Greenville, Baker Lake, Churchill
Dam, Presque Isle, Springfield, Fort Kent, Frenchville, Clayton
Lake, Van Buren, Medway, Patten, Mars Hill, Lincoln, Smyrna
Mills, Houlton, Millinocket, Hodgdon, Madawaska, Danforth,
Chamberlain Lake, Caribou, Vanceboro, Dover-Foxcroft, Topsfield,
Blanchard, Milo, Billy-Jack Depot, Baxter St Park, Monson, and
Allagash
612 AM EST Sun Jan 31 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 10 to 14 
  inches.

* WHERE...Portions of Central Highlands, Far Eastern, Far Northern, 
  North Woods, and Penobscot Valley Maine.

* WHEN...From Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult due to reduced visibility 
  from blowing and drifting snow. The hazardous conditions could 
  impact the Tuesday morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant snow, 
sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to 
monitor the latest forecasts.

&&

$$

Bogel

270 
WWUS41 KCAR 312011
WSWCAR

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Caribou ME
311 PM EST Sun Jan 31 2021

MEZ001>006-010-011-031-032-010415-
/O.UPG.KCAR.WS.A.0002.210202T1200Z-210203T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KCAR.WS.W.0002.210202T0600Z-210203T1200Z/
Northwest Aroostook-Northeast Aroostook-Northern Somerset-
Northern Piscataquis-Northern Penobscot-Southeast Aroostook-
Central Piscataquis-Central Penobscot-Southern Piscataquis-
Northern Washington-
Including the cities of Sherman, Mount Katahdin, East
Millinocket, Guilford, Howland, Greenville, Baker Lake, Churchill
Dam, Presque Isle, Springfield, Fort Kent, Frenchville, Clayton
Lake, Van Buren, Medway, Patten, Mars Hill, Lincoln, Smyrna
Mills, Houlton, Millinocket, Hodgdon, Madawaska, Danforth,
Chamberlain Lake, Caribou, Vanceboro, Dover-Foxcroft, Topsfield,
Blanchard, Milo, Billy-Jack Depot, Baxter St Park, Monson, and
Allagash
311 PM EST Sun Jan 31 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST 
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Snow will mix with sleet across 
  Southeastern Aroostook and the Upper Penobscot Valley. Total snow 
  accumulations of 8 to 13 inches expected. In addition to the snow, 
  sleet accumulations across the far south will range from 0.5 to 1 
  inch.

* WHERE...Portions of Central Highlands, Far Eastern, Far Northern, 
  North Woods, and Penobscot Valley Maine.

* WHEN...From 1 AM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning and evening 
  commutes. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow and sleet means severe winter 
weather conditions will make travel extremely dangerous. If you must 
travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in 
case of an emergency.

The latest road conditions for Maine can be obtained by going to 
newengland511.org.

&&

$$

MEZ015>017-029-030-010415-
/O.CON.KCAR.WS.A.0002.210202T0500Z-210203T1200Z/
Southern Penobscot-Interior Hancock-Central Washington-Coastal
Hancock-Coastal Washington-
Including the cities of Orono, Perry, Orland, Calais, Old Town,
Grand Lake Stream, Eastport, Castine, Aurora, Bar Harbor, Wesley,
Cherryfield, Princeton, Machias, Dedham, Bangor, Great Pond,
Eastbrook, Brewer, Bucksport, Amherst, and Ellsworth
311 PM EST Sun Jan 31 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT 
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow 
  accumulations of 4 to 7 inches, sleet accumulations of around one 
  inch and ice accumulations of around one tenth of an inch 
  possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of Coastal DownEast, Interior DownEast, and 
  Penobscot Valley Maine.

* WHEN...From late Monday night through Wednesday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions 
  could impact the Tuesday morning and evening commutes. Strong 
  winds could cause extensive damage to trees and power lines.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant snow, 
sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to 
monitor the latest forecasts.

&&

$$

Farrar

750 
WWUS41 KCAR 010327
WSWCAR

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1027 PM EST Sun Jan 31 2021

MEZ001>006-010-011-031-032-011100-
/O.CON.KCAR.WS.W.0002.210202T0600Z-210203T1200Z/
Northwest Aroostook-Northeast Aroostook-Northern Somerset-
Northern Piscataquis-Northern Penobscot-Southeast Aroostook-
Central Piscataquis-Central Penobscot-Southern Piscataquis-
Northern Washington-
Including the cities of Allagash, Clayton Lake, Madawaska, 
Fort Kent, Frenchville, Presque Isle, Caribou, Van Buren, 
Mars Hill, Baker Lake, Billy-Jack Depot, Baxter St Park, 
Chamberlain Lake, Churchill Dam, Mount Katahdin, Millinocket, 
East Millinocket, Patten, Medway, Houlton, Hodgdon, Sherman, 
Smyrna Mills, Greenville, Monson, Blanchard, Lincoln, Howland, 
Springfield, Dover-Foxcroft, Milo, Guilford, Danforth, Vanceboro,
and Topsfield
1027 PM EST Sun Jan 31 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO
7 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Snow will mix with sleet across 
  Southeastern Aroostook and the Upper Penobscot Valley. Total 
  snow accumulations of 8 to 13 inches expected. In addition to 
  the snow, sleet accumulations across the far south will range 
  from 0.5 to 1 inch.

* WHERE...Portions of Central Highlands, Far Eastern, Far 
  Northern, North Woods, and Penobscot Valley Maine.

* WHEN...From 1 AM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Northeast winds of 15 to 20 mph with gusts
  up to 30 mph will result in significant blowing and drifting
  especially Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. 

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning and 
  evening commutes. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow and sleet means severe winter
weather conditions will make travel extremely dangerous. If you
must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency.

The latest road conditions for Maine can be obtained by going to
newengland511.org.

&&

$$

MEZ015>017-029-030-011100-
/O.CON.KCAR.WS.A.0002.210202T0500Z-210203T1200Z/
Southern Penobscot-Interior Hancock-Central Washington-
Coastal Hancock-Coastal Washington-
Including the cities of Bangor, Brewer, Orono, Old Town, Amherst,
Aurora, Dedham, Eastbrook, Great Pond, Calais, Grand Lake Stream,
Wesley, Princeton, Ellsworth, Bar Harbor, Bucksport, Orland, 
Castine, Eastport, Perry, Machias, and Cherryfield
1027 PM EST Sun Jan 31 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow 
  accumulations of 4 to 7 inches, sleet accumulations of around 
  one inch and ice accumulations of around one tenth of an inch 
  possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of Coastal DownEast, Interior DownEast, and 
  Penobscot Valley Maine.

* WHEN...From late Monday night through Wednesday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Northeast winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts
  up to 45 mph may cause significant blowing and drifting late
  Monday night into Tuesday morning before the snow changes to 
  mixed precipitation.
 
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the Tuesday morning and evening 
  commutes. Strong winds could cause extensive damage to trees 
  and power lines.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts.

&&

$$

Farrar/Bloomer

644 
WWUS41 KCAR 010331
WSWCAR

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1031 PM EST Sun Jan 31 2021

MEZ001>006-010-011-031-032-011145-
/O.CON.KCAR.WS.W.0002.210202T0600Z-210203T1200Z/
Northwest Aroostook-Northeast Aroostook-Northern Somerset-
Northern Piscataquis-Northern Penobscot-Southeast Aroostook-
Central Piscataquis-Central Penobscot-Southern Piscataquis-
Northern Washington-
Including the cities of Sherman, Mount Katahdin, East
Millinocket, Guilford, Howland, Greenville, Baker Lake, Churchill
Dam, Presque Isle, Springfield, Fort Kent, Frenchville, Clayton
Lake, Van Buren, Medway, Patten, Mars Hill, Lincoln, Smyrna
Mills, Houlton, Millinocket, Hodgdon, Madawaska, Danforth,
Chamberlain Lake, Caribou, Vanceboro, Dover-Foxcroft, Topsfield,
Blanchard, Milo, Billy-Jack Depot, Baxter St Park, Monson, and
Allagash
1031 PM EST Sun Jan 31 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM 
EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Snow will mix with sleet across 
  Southeastern Aroostook and the Upper Penobscot Valley. Total snow 
  accumulations of 8 to 13 inches expected. In addition to the snow, 
  sleet accumulations across the far south will range from 0.5 to 1 
  inch.

* WHERE...Portions of Central Highlands, Far Eastern, Far Northern, 
  North Woods, and Penobscot Valley Maine.

* WHEN...From 1 AM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning and evening 
  commutes. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow and sleet means severe winter 
weather conditions will make travel extremely dangerous. If you must 
travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in 
case of an emergency.

The latest road conditions for Maine can be obtained by going to 
newengland511.org.

&&

$$

MEZ015>017-029-030-011145-
/O.CON.KCAR.WS.A.0002.210202T0500Z-210203T1200Z/
Southern Penobscot-Interior Hancock-Central Washington-Coastal
Hancock-Coastal Washington-
Including the cities of Orono, Perry, Orland, Calais, Old Town,
Grand Lake Stream, Eastport, Castine, Aurora, Bar Harbor, Wesley,
Cherryfield, Princeton, Machias, Dedham, Bangor, Great Pond,
Eastbrook, Brewer, Bucksport, Amherst, and Ellsworth
1031 PM EST Sun Jan 31 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT 
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 7 to 12 
  inches. Highest amounts inland away from the immediate coast. Snow 
  will likely mix with or change to sleet & rain at times especially 
  along and near the coast. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of Coastal DownEast, Interior DownEast, and 
  Penobscot Valley Maine.

* WHEN...From late Monday night through Wednesday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions 
  could impact the Tuesday morning and evening commutes. Strong 
  winds could cause extensive damage to trees and power lines.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant snow, 
sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to 
monitor the latest forecasts.

&&

$$

Bloomer

513 
WWUS41 KCAR 010917
WSWCAR

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Caribou ME
417 AM EST Mon Feb 1 2021

MEZ017-029-030-012200-
/O.UPG.KCAR.WS.A.0002.210202T0500Z-210203T1200Z/
/O.EXB.KCAR.WS.W.0002.210202T0400Z-210203T0400Z/
Central Washington-Coastal Hancock-Coastal Washington-
Including the cities of Calais, Grand Lake Stream, Wesley, 
Princeton, Ellsworth, Bar Harbor, Bucksport, Orland, Castine, 
Eastport, Perry, Machias, and Cherryfield
417 AM EST Mon Feb 1 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
11 PM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 5 to 9 inches, sleet accumulations of around
  one quarter of an inch and ice accumulations around one tenth of
  an inch expected. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Central Washington, Coastal Hancock and Coastal 
  Washington Counties.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 11 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the Tuesday morning and evening
  commutes. Strong winds could cause damage to trees and power 
  lines.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet
and ice will make travel extremely dangerous. 

The latest road conditions for Maine can be obtained by going to
newengland511.org.

&&

$$

MEZ015-016-012200-
/O.UPG.KCAR.WS.A.0002.210202T0500Z-210203T1200Z/
/O.EXB.KCAR.WS.W.0002.210202T0700Z-210203T0700Z/
Southern Penobscot-Interior Hancock-
Including the cities of Bangor, Brewer, Orono, Old Town, Amherst,
Aurora, Dedham, Eastbrook, and Great Pond
417 AM EST Mon Feb 1 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 6 to 10 inches, sleet accumulations of around 
  one quarter of an inch and ice accumulations of up to one tenth 
  of an inch expected. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Southern Penobscot and Interior Hancock Counties.

* WHEN...From 2 AM Tuesday to 2 AM EST Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening 
  commute. Power outages are possible.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the Tuesday morning and evening 
  commutes. Strong winds could cause extensive damage to trees 
  and power lines.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet
and ice will make travel extremely dangerous. 

The latest road conditions for Maine can be obtained by going to
newengland511.org.

&&

$$

MEZ006-011-032-012200-
/O.EXT.KCAR.WS.W.0002.210202T0700Z-210203T0700Z/
Southeast Aroostook-Central Penobscot-Northern Washington-
Including the cities of Houlton, Hodgdon, Sherman, Smyrna Mills, 
Lincoln, Howland, Springfield, Danforth, Vanceboro, and Topsfield
417 AM EST Mon Feb 1 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM
EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 6 to 10 inches, sleet accumulations of around 
  one third of an inch and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of
  an inch expected.

* WHERE...Central Penobscot, Southeast Aroostook and Northern 
  Washington Counties.

* WHEN...From 2 AM Tuesday to 2 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning and 
  evening commutes. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet
and ice will make travel extremely dangerous. 

The latest road conditions for Maine can be obtained by going to
newengland511.org.

&&

$$

MEZ001>005-010-031-012200-
/O.EXT.KCAR.WS.W.0002.210202T1200Z-210203T1200Z/
Northwest Aroostook-Northeast Aroostook-Northern Somerset-
Northern Piscataquis-Northern Penobscot-Central Piscataquis-
Southern Piscataquis-
Including the cities of Allagash, Clayton Lake, Madawaska, 
Fort Kent, Frenchville, Presque Isle, Caribou, Van Buren, 
Mars Hill, Baker Lake, Billy-Jack Depot, Baxter St Park, 
Chamberlain Lake, Churchill Dam, Mount Katahdin, Millinocket, 
East Millinocket, Patten, Medway, Greenville, Monson, Blanchard, 
Dover-Foxcroft, Milo, and Guilford
417 AM EST Mon Feb 1 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM
EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 7 to 11 inches, sleet accumulations up to one 
  quarter of an inch and ice accumulations of a light glaze 
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of Central Highlands, Far Northern and North 
  Woods Maine.

* WHEN...From 7 AM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning and 
  evening commutes. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet
and ice will make travel extremely dangerous. 

The latest road conditions for Maine can be obtained by going to
newengland511.org.

&&

$$

VJN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1210 AM EST Sun Jan 31 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build toward the region overnight, then
cross the region through Monday morning. Low pressure will
approach from the south Monday, and track northeast into the
Maritimes by Wednesday. High pressure will build in on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12:10 AM Update: A three dog night across the FA as temperatures
tumble under a clear sky. Some clouds may try to back into far
northeast Maine toward daybreak, but this will be too late for
any impact on our low temperatures. The temperature is down to
16 below at Estcourt Station and Big Black River as of midnight.
Made some tweaks to lower the hourly temperatures and overnight
lows. The broad northwest valleys will likely drop into the 20
to 25 below range overnight with the potential that some spot in
the FA ends up with the contiguous U.S. cold spot.

Previous Discussion... High pressure will continue to ridge
down across the area from the north on Sunday with partly/mostly
sunny skies across the region. Afternoon high temperatures will
range from around 20 degrees across the north and low to mid
20s central and Downeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pres will drift across eastern Canada Sunday night into Monday
w/cold air damming setting up. Low pres moving across the Ohio River
Valley will weaken during the day on Monday w/energy in the upper
levels being transferred to the Delmarva. This in turn will allow
for secondary development as the energy diving down the backside of
the upper trof will lead to rapid intensification as the low
lifts ne. In the meantime, Sunday night looks to be chilly night
w/some areas seeing temps below zero w/that high to the n
keeping thicker clouds at bay. Some areas such as the Allagash
and North Woods, could be seeing readings apchg -5F or perhaps
even colder. Light winds, mostly clear skies and snow cover will
be a good setup for it. Monday will see increasing clouds which
will aid in halting temps back a biT, but still above normal
for the beginning of February.

Monday night into Tuesday will feature clouds continuing to thicken
with snow lifting into the srn areas later at night, and then
gradually lift up across central and then into northern areas
on Tuesday. The latest runs of the model guidance including the
GFS/NAM and ECMWF appear to have shifted the low further e,
which in turn keep colder temps in, allowing for more snow as
far s as the coast. There are some timing and placement
differences, but a good swath of the individual ensemble members
of the GFS and ECMWF point to the potential for a sanguined, if
not major storm. Negatively tilted trof, upper difluence and
strong upper level jet leading to strong intensification.
Tapping of Gulf and Atlantic moisture being pulled into the NErn
US. There is potential for some heavy snowfall rates on Tuesday
w/strong deformation possibly setting up, especially later in
the day continuing into Tuesday night. More on that below. There
is still some risk of snow going to rain especially for the
coast and extreme eastern Washington County as some warmer air
gets pulled into coast. Despite the latest shift in the track by
the model guidance, preferred to stay w/consistency and kept
the threat for a changeover to rain later in the day on
Tuesday/Tuesday evening. If the trend continues for a track
over the Gulf of Maine waters, then the rain-snow line may need
to be shifted further s. Sleet is also concern as GYX pointed
out the warm layer at 850- 700mbs coming w/this strengthening
system, which the ECMWF shows being prolonged. This would lead
to a significant accumulation of sleet. After coordinating
w/GYX, decided to keep the mention of sleet out of the forecast
for now given it is 5-6th period. As if to add to the mix, winds
are also a concern especially across the Downeast region w/llvl
jet of 50+ kt from the ENE. This could only hamper things
especially if heavy snow sets up w/whiteout conditions a
possibility if this setup is realized.

One last item is the potential for some splashover at the time
of high tide given the prolonged ENE wind into Tuesday night.
Seas building to 10-12 ft w/in the 20 foot zone could allow
large breakers leading to the splashover.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Snow, heavy at times w/some sleet Tuesday night w/some high
snowfall rates(possibly 1-2"/hr), especially across the Maine
Central Highlands into Northern Maine. The intensifying low
looks like it through the Bay of Fundy which is a good marker
for heavy snowfall across the region especially northern areas.
The snow is expected to gradually wind down on Wednesday from s
to n, w/far northern areas seeing snow continuing into the early
afternoon, before winding down. A foot or more snow is possible
across Northern and portions of the Maine Central Highlands.
Remaining unsettled into Thursday as the upper trof swings
across the region leading to clouds and flurries. A break early
Friday w/some weak ridging and partial clearing. This will
short-lived as a weak system lifting across the region could
bring some light precip in the form of snow to the region, w/the
highest percentages across Downeast areas. The beginning to the
weekend looks to be rather dry per the ECMWF guidance, while
the GFS is more aggressive w/the next system and threatens to
bring snow/rain to the region. Attm, it does not look like
anything too heavy. High confidence that temps will average
above normal during this stretch.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Generally VFR conditions expected across the region
overnight through Sunday. However, an occasional MVFR ceiling
is possible at KFVE overnight into Sunday morning.
North/northwest winds 5 to around 10 knots overnight through
Sunday.

SHORT TERM: Sun night into Mon night...VFR becoming MVFR cigs
late day on Monday across KBGR-KBHB w/northern sites remaining
VFR. Conditions will continue to deteriorate on Monday night
w/any MVFR going to IFR, especially for KBGR-KBHB w/some snow
developing. N wind 5-10 kts into Monday and then winds shift to
the NE at10-15 kts later at night.

Tue/Tue Night...IFR/LIFR conditions for all terminals with
snow/winds and possibly sleet. Could be seeing whiteout conditions
at times, especially for KBGR-KBHB Tuesday w/those conditions
extending across the northern terminals Tuesday night. Winds NE
10- 20kts. Higher gusts to 35+ kts possible, especially at
kBHB. Rain may mix with snow at BHB. LLWS possible for all
terminals.

Wed/Wed night...IFR clgs/vsby becoming MVFR with VFR possible
overnight into Thu AM. Snow winding down to snow showers late
Wed. N-NE winds shift to NW Wed evening. 10-20kts with few
gusts to 30kts possible at BHB. LLWS possible.

Thu...VFR w/the exception of the northern terminals as MVFR
cigs are possible. NW winds 5-15kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through
5 AM for much of the waters, with the exception of the
intracoastal waters. Winds/seas below small craft advisory
levels on all the waters Sunday. Light freezing spray will occur
overnight into Sunday.

SHORT TERM: Sun night into Mon...N winds 10 kt shift to the E
Mon w/20-25 kt late in the day.

Mon night into Tue...ENE winds 25-35 kt w/gusts 40+ kts becoming
NE. Seas of 4-6 ft climbing to 12-15 ft by later Tue.

Tue night through early Wed...NE winds 20-25 kt w/gusts to 35
kts becoming N at 15-20 kt on Wed. Seas of 10-14 ft will be
subsiding to 6 to 9 ft by Wed afternoon.

Wed night into Thu...Conditions trend towards improvement Wed
night and continue into Thu as N winds go NW 15-20 kt. Seas are
expected to subside to 4-5 ft.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Sunday for ANZ050-051.

&&

Near Term...CB/Duda
Short Term...Hewitt
Long Term...Hewitt
Aviation...CB/Duda/Hewitt
Marine...CB/Duda/Hewitt

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Caribou ME
340 AM EST Sun Jan 31 2021

MEZ001>006-010-011-031-032-010845-
Northwest Aroostook-Northeast Aroostook-Northern Somerset-
Northern Piscataquis-Northern Penobscot-Southeast Aroostook-
Central Piscataquis-Central Penobscot-Southern Piscataquis-
Northern Washington-
340 AM EST Sun Jan 31 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Central Highlands Maine, Far
Eastern Maine, Far Northern Maine, North Woods Maine and Penobscot
Valley Maine.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

MEZ015>017-029-030-010845-
Southern Penobscot-Interior Hancock-Central Washington-
Coastal Hancock-Coastal Washington-
340 AM EST Sun Jan 31 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Coastal DownEast Maine,
Interior DownEast Maine and Penobscot Valley Maine.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

ANZ050>052-010845-
Coastal Waters from Eastport, ME to Schoodic Point, ME out 25 NM-
Coastal Waters from Schoodic Point, ME to Stonington, ME out 25 NM-
Intra Coastal Waters from Schoodic Point, ME to Stonington, ME-
340 AM EST Sun Jan 31 2021

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

CB/Sinko