Special Weather Statement, NWS Caribou, ME

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
609 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach tonight and cross the area on Tuesday.
High pressure will settle over the area by the middle of the
week and slide offshore on Thursday. Another system will
approach from the west late in the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
605 PM Update: Fog making its way toward the coast attm per the
latest satl imagery and obs over the outer islands reporting fog
moving in. Collaborated w/GYX on putting up a Dense Fog Advisory
for the coast through Tuesday morning. Radar showing intense
convection firing across Aroostook and Piscataquis County. Some
of the storms in Aroostook County were showing signs of
rotation w/strong winds and hail. Kept the enhanced wording in
there through the evening.Hrly temps were adjusted to fit the
latest obs.

Previous Discussion...
Low pressure will continue to track well north of the region
tonight. A warm front will continue to lift northeast of the
region early this evening with a warm and humid air mass
remaining in place across the region. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to continue mainly across the north
Maine Woods and northern Aroostook county as the warm front
lifts to the north.

We have been seeing rotating storms across the north Maine Woods
this afternoon and there will be the potential for severe storms
across northern areas through early this evening. Thus, any
storms may contain large hail and damaging winds through early
this evening. Precipitable water values 1.5" to near 2.0" will
result in locally heavy rainfall with any storms, thus will
continue to mention heavy rain as well.

Any thunderstorms across the north will be on the wane by later
this evening with mainly cloudy skies overnight, along with
scattered showers ahead of an approaching cold front. Warm and
muggy conditions can be expected with lows generally in the low
to mid 60s across the region.

The cold front will slowly cross the region on Tuesday from
northwest to southeast across the region. Expect scattered showers
as the front crosses the region. The best chances for thunderstorms
will be across east central and Downeast portions of the
region. It will be cooler with highs ranging from the lower 70s
across the north and mid 70s Downeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Cold front wl be along the coast on Tue evening and likely to move
offshore by 03z. However showers likely to continue over Downeast
until daybreak as upr lvl jet finally east moves into New Brunswick.
Skies wl clear with drier air mvg in behind and min temps wl dip
into the 40s with possibly u30s in far nwrn Aroostook.

Clear skies will be on tap thru the end of the short term with high
temps on Wed below normal before rebounding to just above normal for
Thursday. Thursday wl feature high pressure sliding offshore with
return flow drawing in more moist air and temps topping out in the
u70s/nr 80F. Given clear skies and fairly light winds expect patchy
fog to dvlp briefly each morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Bermuda high will likley keep next system at bay thru Sat morning.
Temped to rmv pops from Sat but with global Canadian indicating pcpn
over the area in the aftn hv opted not to remove. Hv also retained
mention of thunder in the afternoon and evng, however have
dropped chcs to slgt chc as main forcing rmns back to the west.

Cdfnt looks to be approaching the international border by Sun
morning though guidance differs on timing and additional waves
riding northeast along the bndry. Bndry appears to stall out at some
point early next week as an active pattern looks to set up.&&

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions early will give way to widespread IFR/LIFR
in low clouds and areas of fog, especially KBGR/KBHB vicinity.
Scattered thunderstorms will mainly affect the northern
terminals through early this evening. Widespread IFR conditions
are expected Tuesday morning to give way MVFR, then VFR in the
afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are possible in the
afternoon, mainly KHUL south. S wind around 10 kt this evening,
becoming W around 10 kts on Tuesday.

SHORT TERM:
Tue night...VFR over northern terminals with IFR improving to
VFR Downeast late. NW 5-10kts.

Wed...VFR. 5-10kts.

Wed night...VFR. Light WSW.

Thu-Fri night...VFR. S 5-10kts and gusty each afternoon.

Sat...VFR becoming MVFR in the afternoon. S 5-15kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will generally remain below SCA levels, although
a few gusts to around 25 kt are possible tonight. Visibility will
be reduced to less than 1 NM in areas of fog.

SHORT TERM: Seas and winds remain below SCA thresholds. Patchy
fog likely to reduce visibilities over the waters thru the end
of the week.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...None.

&&

Near Term...Duda/Hewitt
Short Term...Farrar
Long Term...Farrar
Aviation...Duda/Hewitt/Farrar
Marine...Duda/Hewitt/Farrar