Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Caribou, ME

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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Caribou ME
400 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

MEC003-021-025-212008-
/O.EXP.KCAR.SV.W.0015.000000T0000Z-210621T2000Z/
Northern Somerset ME-Piscataquis ME-Aroostook ME-
400 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN SOMERSET...
NORTHWESTERN PISCATAQUIS AND WEST CENTRAL AROOSTOOK COUNTIES WILL
EXPIRE AT 400 PM EDT...
                
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe 
limits. Remember, a Tornado Warning still remains in effect for 
North central Piscataquis and Western Central Aroostook Counties 
until 415 PM.

LAT...LON 4637 6997 4671 6921 4646 6887 4621 6965
      4621 6998
TIME...MOT...LOC 1958Z 238DEG 30KT 4641 6957 

$$

Cornwell

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1236 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach later this afternoon and tonight then
cross the area on Tuesday. High pressure will approach from the
west on Wednesday and cross the area Thursday. High pressure
will remain to our east on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 PM Update:
Latest radar reflectivity imagery shows showers and isld tstms
moving out of Quebec province and through the North Maine Woods.
Temperatures have already risen into upper 70s to lower 80s away
from the immediate coast. Only minor changes to hrly temps and
dew points at this hour, otherwise no other changes.

previous discussion
An initial s/wv trof lifting ENE from as established L/wv trof
ovr the Midwest U.S. will bring the potential of shwrs/tstms to
msly the NW hlf of the FA later this aftn into eve. With SSW
winds, most of the avbl max SBCAPE of 600-1200 J/Kg will be
closer to the QB border where we have the highest PoPs and
greatest QPFs with the lower atmos further E being modified
somewhat by maritime influences from the Gulf of ME lmtg cnvctv
potential there. Even ovr the NW where cnvctn is more favorable,
the arrival of xtnsv mid cldnss could somewhat mute cnvctv
initiation durg the mid to late aftn. Despite potential
limitations, given deep layer shear we kept the mention of gusty
winds, small hail (with high frzg lvls) and heavy rnfl enhanced
tstm elements in the event of any organization of low top
cnvctv tops with some rotation or multiple cells into any ln
segments. Best potential of any svr tstms will be closer to the
QB border, but we believe most strongest tstms will be just
below svr lmts. Although there is the potential of heavy rnfl,
flooding potential may be mitigated by relatively fast motion of
tstm cells, even in training scenarios.

Tstms will cont into the eve, then diminish to lgt shwrs ovrngt
and become sct. Between rain moistened areas and the advcn of
more maritime air from the Gulf of ME, we xpct widespread low ST
cld cvr and patchy to areas of fog by late tngt contg into erly
Tue morn. Ovrngt lows will be well abv avg, spcly inland from
the immediate Downeast coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front will push into the area Tuesday as some subtropical
moisture running up from the remnants of tropical storm Claudette
lift north ahead of the front. Convergence along the front and a bit
of upper level divergence associated with a weak upper high over the
remnant low will create enough lift to produce showers along and
ahead of the front mainly across eastern areas. Some embedded
thunderstorms are possible, especially over eastern and southeastern
areas. The timing of the front coming through in the morning and
midday does not allow much heating to support storms. However,
moisture is deep and any thunderstorms could be capable of heavy
downpours. The front will push to the east Tuesday afternoon. Some
undercutting showers will continue to be possible through the
afternoon in eastern and southeastern areas. Some clearing is
possible over the west during the afternoon as the front presses
east. The sky will gradually clear Tuesday night as high pressure
builds in. Wednesday will turn out mostly sunny over the area with
high pressure building over. However, a weak upper trough crossing
the north may produce some patchy cumulus clouds, especially during
the afternoon. Wednesday night will then turn out moonlit and
tranquil with high pressure nearby to the south.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will slide east of the area Thursday as a warm return
southwesterly flow of air comes in behind the high. This will bring
a mostly sunny and warm day with a breezy afternoon, especially
across the north followed by a clear and mild night Thursday night.
Friday will be another mostly sunny and breezy day as a return south
southwesterly flow of air continues behind the high. Our focus
Friday night will then turn to a new storm system approaching form
the Great Lakes with moisture running northeast along a slow moving
frontal boundary approaching from Canada. This will bring increasing
clouds Friday night into Saturday with a chance for some showers or
patchy drizzle as humidity and low level moisture increases on
Saturday. Low pressure will lift up to the north Saturday night into
Sunday pulling a cold front toward the area. An increasing south
wind, showers, and perhaps some gusty thunderstorms may accompany
the cold front as it pushes into the area on Sunday. Both the ECMWF
and the GFS indicate that the front may slow and be held up by
strong subtropical ridging to our east with the ECMWF the least
progressive with the front. This could allow for a prolonged period
of showers as moisture feeds into the front from subtropical high
pressure to our east and frontal convergence gradually pushes across
the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR much of this afternoon. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop after 20z but remain mainly to the NW of the
terminals. S wind around 10 kt.

Tonight, all sites will become MVFR late this eve, and then
IFR/LIFR in low clouds, fog and showers later tonight. S wind
around 10 kt. LLWS possible tonight.

SHORT TERM: Tuesday...IFR, possibly becoming MVFR or VFR across
the north late. S winds becoming NW.

Tuesday night...MVFR becoming VFR Downeast. VFR across the
north. NW winds.

Wednesday...VFR. NW Winds.

Wednesday night...VFR, possibly dropping to MVFR in some valley
spots late in light patchy fog. NW winds.

Thursday...VFR. S winds.

Thursday night...VFR. S winds.

Friday...VFR. S winds.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will apch SCA thresholds ovr outer
waters later this aftn thru tngt, but we believe stable sfc-500m
agl lapse rates will keep max S winds capped in the low 20s kt
and max wv hts at 5 ft durg this tm frame. Wvs will be composed
of two groups with the predominate a 7-9 sec pd advcg from the
S and the second, a faint 15 to 18 sec very long swell pd advcg
from the SE from the remnants of Claudette tracking ENE across
the open Atlc south of the Gulf of ME.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA
through this coming week. Humid air over the waters may result
in patchy fog reducing visibilities, especially late this week
into the coming weekend.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

Near Term...Duda/VJN
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Bloomer
Aviation...Duda/VJN/Bloomer
Marine...Duda/VJN/Bloomer

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Caribou ME
338 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

MEZ001>005-010-031-220745-
Northwest Aroostook-Northeast Aroostook-Northern Somerset-
Northern Piscataquis-Northern Penobscot-Central Piscataquis-
Southern Piscataquis-
338 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Central Highlands Maine, Far
Northern Maine and North Woods Maine.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
A cold front will slowly approach from the west later this afternoon
and tonight. Thunderstorms are expected to develop later this
afternoon and into this evening. A few thunderstorms may contain
gusty winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

MEZ006-011-015>017-029-030-032-220745-
Southeast Aroostook-Central Penobscot-Southern Penobscot-
Interior Hancock-Central Washington-Coastal Hancock-
Coastal Washington-Northern Washington-
338 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Coastal DownEast Maine, Far
Eastern Maine, Interior DownEast Maine and Penobscot Valley Maine.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
Thunderstorms are possible for Tuesday afternoon ahead of a slow
moving cold front.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

ANZ050>052-220745-
Coastal Waters from Eastport, ME to Schoodic Point, ME out 25 NM-
Coastal Waters from Schoodic Point, ME to Stonington, ME out 25 NM-
Intra Coastal Waters from Schoodic Point, ME to Stonington, ME-
338 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

VJN