Special Weather Statement, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
729 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Remnants of Tropical Storm Fred moving through the area through
this evening. Locally heavy rain possible. The storm will move
north of the region tonight and showers will diminish. A
summertime pattern is expected to return for late in the week
along with chances for afternoon/evening showers and
thunderstorms into next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
The tornado watch for portions of the Midlands has been extended
until 2 AM. There is still one final band that may work its way
through the area with a chance of an isolated tornado as
sufficient shear and buoyancy remain in place this evening.

The remnants of Fred continues to track north across north
Georgia toward the Carolina Mountains. High resolution models
(CAMS) show Convective bands moving through the region this
afternoon and into the evening. Moderate instability and
sufficient low level directional shear remains favorable for a
few rotating storms/isolated tornado threat mainly across the
western Midlands into the SC Piedmont near a baroclinic zone
near GSP into western NC. Low level winds remain more east
(backed) in that area. Stronger synoptic lift appears to focus
to the northwest of the region through the period. Note Water
vapor showing considerable dry air aloft in the southeast
Midlands and is increasing the instability in that area. The
axis of instability extends into the central Midlands. So have
high pops into the early evening then decreasing during the
overnight as the center of Fred moves well north of the region.
Muggy tonight with lows in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The remnant low of Fred will be well to our north by the start of
the short term. An upper level ridge will build over the southeast
in the wake of the TD. Drier air will move in from the
west/southwest however PWATs will continue to be above 2 inches.
Lack of a triggering mechanism should limit convection to the
afternoon hours with mainly diurnally driven storms. Temperatures
will bounce back to climo with highs in the low 90s and upper 80s.
Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 70s due to the lingering
moisture.

Slightly better instability Thursday along with increased mid level
moisture with an upper level trough beginning to near the
Appalachians. Chance of thunderstorms, developing mainly in the
afternoon. Temperatures increasing to the mid 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A shortwave trough will move through the region Friday morning as
the upper level trough swings through. Ensembles indicate
instability will be weak along our area with mainly scattered
showers in the afternoon and overnight hours. Forecast beyond
Saturday will be influenced by a developing low off the Atlantic.
While the low looks to stay offshore, it may influence available
moisture across the region. Kept slight chance PoPs through the
weekend as mean PWATs remain elevated through Monday around 2
inches. Very little model agreement past Sunday with heights rising
overall and increasing stability.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A mix of VFR and MVFR expected as bands of Fred swing through.
Some IFR cigs possible in the morning but not as widespread as
the last few morning.

The primary band of convection has dissipated and is being
closely followed by a second line. This line is currently moving
across AGS and DNL and will slowly push across the area the next
few hours. Winds will shift from southeasterly to southerly
after this line passes. Overnight, low level moisture will
continue to keep low VFR or MVFR cigs around and winds will
gradually fall off. Brief drops in vsby and cigs are possible
Wednesday morning, but overall not expecting a widespread
restriction issue like the past few mornings. Just included
brief falls to IFR for each TAF site.

Wednesday looks to be more of what we had prior to Fred,
scattered cu with afternoon thunderstorms.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Late night/early morning
fog/stratus restrictions also possible each day as high level
moisture remains in place. Low clouds will mix out by mid
morning.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Heavy rain potential in the upstream river basins across the
Upstate SC associated with Tropical Storm Fred may lead to
elevated rivers across central SC by midweek.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
HYDROLOGY...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Columbia SC
631 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ016-018-025-029>031-035-038-041-135>137-182245-
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Burke-Chesterfield-McCormick-
Edgefield-Lee-Aiken-Sumter-Barnwell-Clarendon-Bamberg-
Northwestern Orangeburg-Central Orangeburg-Southeastern Orangeburg-
631 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

SCZ020>022-026>028-037-115-116-182245-
Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Saluda-Lexington-Richland-Calhoun-
Northern Lancaster-Southern Lancaster-
631 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

...TORNADO WATCH 446 IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
554 PM EDT TUE AUG 17 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     TORNADO          6 SW CHAPIN             34.10N 81.43W
08/17/2021                   NEWBERRY           SC   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA VIDEO OF A TORNADO MOVING
            ACROSS LAKE MURRAY NEAR DREHER ISLAND STATE
            PARK. THE VIDEO WAS SHOW FROM THE AUTUMN CAY
            NEIGHBORHOOD OFF OF STATE PARK ROAD.

&&

LCV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
606 PM EDT TUE AUG 17 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     TORNADO          5 SW CHAPIN             34.12N 81.41W
08/17/2021                   LEXINGTON          SC   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN ON HOME ON CRYSTAL COVE CT. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

NS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
610 PM EDT TUE AUG 17 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0401 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SW CHAPIN             34.12N 81.41W
08/17/2021                   LEXINGTON          SC   PUBLIC

            POWERLINES DOWN ALONG CRYSTAL COVE CT. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

NS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
628 PM EDT TUE AUG 17 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0533 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 NNW BROOKDALE         33.60N 80.87W
08/17/2021                   ORANGEBURG         SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SC HIGHWAY PATROL REPORTS TREE ON ROADWAY AT
            COLUMBIA ROAD AND NEW HOPE ROAD. TIME
            ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

MG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
641 PM EDT TUE AUG 17 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     TORNADO          7 SW CHAPIN             34.09N 81.42W
08/17/2021                   NEWBERRY           SC   PUBLIC

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS TORNADO REPORT FROM 6 SW
            CHAPIN. SOCIAL MEDIA VIDEO OF A TORNADO
            MOVING ACROSS LAKE MURRAY NEAR DREHER ISLAND
            STATE PARK. THE VIDEO WAS SHOW FROM THE
            AUTUMN CAY NEIGHBORHOOD OFF OF STATE PARK
            ROAD.

&&

MG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
743 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

GAZ065-077-SCZ030-035-180015-
Burke GA-Richmond GA-Barnwell SC-Aiken SC-
743 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of central Burke,
southeastern Richmond, eastern Edgefield, southwestern Barnwell and
Aiken Counties through 815 PM EDT...

At 743 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Edgefield County Airport to 6 miles
northeast of Augusta Regional Airport to near Burke County Airport.
Movement was northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Aiken, Waynesboro, Savannah River Site, Aiken Mall, Plant Vogtle, New
Ellenton, Jackson, Alexander, Burke County Airport, USC Aiken,
Citizens Park, Aiken Municipal Airport, Gloverville, Aiken State
Park, Graniteville, Burnettown, Windsor, Savannah River Site Badge
Office, Vaucluse and New Holland.

This includes Interstate 20 in South Carolina between mile markers 12
and 34.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3293 8218 3336 8190 3368 8183 3381 8166
      3382 8154 3364 8138 3301 8175
TIME...MOT...LOC 2343Z 219DEG 44KT 3378 8178 3341 8186 3304 8210

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

fwa