Special Weather Statement, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
212 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Typical summer time pattern will continue into next week with
the Bermuda High will ridging into the forecast area. Expect
scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day along
with seasonal temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Satellite and radar imagery show convective showers and a few
thunderstorms developing across the area with additional
development expected over the next couple hours. The potential
for severe thunderstorms remains low however wv satellite
imagery shows some dry air over the central and western Midlands
so gusty winds will be possible. As with summertime convection
coverage will diminish with sunset and all cells ending by
midnight. High temperatures this afternoon will be in the upper
80s to low 90s with overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Upper low moving clockwise around the upper high offshore is
progged to move north through our region Tuesday, producing
scattered showers and thunderstorms per latest high resolution
model runs.

In the wake of this upper low moving to our NE, along with a
closed low and upper trough over the Midwest weakening and
shifting NE, the upper high offshore is expected to begin
building westward into our region Wed. This, along with
precipitable water (PW) values near climatological normals, is
expected to provide a seasonally normal chance of mainly diurnal
convection.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Model ensemble means in good agreement in indicating upper high
to remain over the region Thu/Fri, with h5 heights slightly
above climatological normals, and PW values remaining near
climatological normals. NBM guidance indicating mainly chance
POPs, which appears reasonable. This synoptic pattern, combined
with a moist airmass, points to a diurnal pattern of scattered
showers and thunderstorms through at least Friday along with
near normal temperatures. Looking ahead to the weekend,
convection may be limited on Saturday as drier air and lower
PWATs move into the CWA. However, any reprieve appears to be
limited with increased chances of showers and thunderstorms
again on Sunday. Near normals temps expected.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mainly VFR expected for the TAF period with scattered convection
expected this afternoon and evening.

Scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm currently across
the area with satellite imagery showing developing cumulus
across the entire area. Over the next couple of hours expect
increasing coverage in showers and thunderstorms however with
the scattered nature have remained with VCSH due to confidence
in coverage. Convection will dissipate late this evening as an
inversion develops and instability decreases. Overnight a low
level jet will be over the area lowering the potential for fog
however with plenty of low level moisture expect stratus to
form. Have remained with VFR conditions overnight as stratus
coverage remains uncertain.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions in diurnally driven
showers and thunderstorms possible each day. Early morning
stratus/fog possible.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Columbia SC
420 AM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-
116-135>137-130830-
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Burke-Chesterfield-McCormick-
Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-Richland-Lee-
Aiken-Sumter-Barnwell-Calhoun-Clarendon-Bamberg-Northern Lancaster-
Southern Lancaster-Northwestern Orangeburg-Central Orangeburg-
Southeastern Orangeburg-
420 AM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
554 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021

SCZ025-026-030-122230-
Aiken SC-Saluda SC-Edgefield SC-
554 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021

...Strong Thunderstorms Will Impact Portions of northwestern Aiken...
south central Saluda and east central Edgefield Counties Until 630 PM
EDT....

At 554 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm near Aiken Municipal Airport, or 9 miles north of
Aiken, moving north at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...gusty winds 40 to 50 mph, pea sized hail, excessive cloud
           to ground lightning and localized minor flooding.

  IMPACT...expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to plants,
           trees and crops is possible. Damage to windshields is
           unlikely. All outdoor activities should cease. Move
           indoors immediately. Localized, minor flooding of low
           lying and poor drainage areas is also possible.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Johnston, Ridge Spring, Aiken Municipal Airport, Edgefield County
Airport, Monetta, Trenton, Ward, Strom Thurmond High School, Harmony
and Vaucluse.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may cause localized
flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

Move indoors immediately.  Excessive cloud to ground lightning is
occurring with this storm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning.

This storm may intensify. Monitor NOAA Weather Radio, local radio and
television stations for additional information and possible warnings
from the National Weather Service.

&&

This includes Interstate 20 in South Carolina between mile markers 13
and 27.

LAT...LON 3364 8159 3360 8181 3383 8193 3388 8161
TIME...MOT...LOC 2154Z 168DEG 8KT 3370 8173