Special Weather Statement, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
208 PM EDT Wed Jun 9 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Expect scattered mainly afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms through Thursday. An upper trough and
surface boundary will gradually shift through the region Friday
and Saturday, leading to increased chances of showers and
thunderstorms. Some drier air will enter the region Sunday
through mid next week, reducing thunderstorm coverage.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Upper level ridging will over the southeastern states this
afternoon will weaken overnight as an upper trough over the
Upper Midwest moves into the Ohio Valley. PWATs values will
remain around 1.9 inches with weak mid level lapse rates and
limited divergence aloft. Bermuda high pressure ridging into the
southeastern states will continue a moist southerly flow.
CAMs indicate scattered showers and thunderstorms in progress
could linger overnight as weak short wave energy moves into the
northern Midlands as the upper ridge weaken.

The potential for localized heavy rain is low due to the
slightly drier air limiting any potential for localized
flooding. High temperatures this afternoon will be in the upper
80s to low 90s. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s and
lower 70s under partly to mostly cloudy skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Upper ridge to remain centered to our SW over the E GOMEX Thursday,
with some slight upper heights falls for our forecast area (FA), as
an upper low over the Midwest slowly tracks into the Mid Atlantic.
Some upper impulses ahead of it to track east, mainly just to our
north, across the S Apps/NC/VA. Surface front to back door down the
eastern seaboard through VA into NC, remaining to our north into
Friday. Combination of upper energy, surface convergence near the
front, orographic lift, and highest atmospheric moisture will lead
to best convective coverage and rainfall amounts remaining just to
our N and NE. WPC has those areas outlooked in excessive rainfall
outlook. Sufficient moisture and instability over our FA expected to
lead to scattered diurnal convection. Southern stream upper trough
to shift into our FA late Friday/Friday night, with surface boundary
shifting south into our northern FA, along with increased moisture,
leading to increased POPs and mainly north.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Weak southern stream upper troughiness, and surface boundary, and
high moisture values, to move through Saturday, with continued good
chance POPs. Some question as to when the upper trough and best
moisture will shift east of our region. NAEFS and GEFS indicate the
upper trough to shift to our east by Sunday with surface boundary
weakening or shifting to our south and east, with some drier air
entering the FA, especially north and central. Guidance in
generally good agreement with northern stream upper trough
digging into the E CONUS early to mid next week, with
anomolously low upper heights across the eastern seaboard. This
will lead to a drier NW flow aloft for our region, with drier
air shifting into the region from the north through the period.
Some guidance indicating a surface boundary passing through
Tue/Wed time frame. Model blend provides mainly slight chance to
low chance POPs through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions expected outside of scattered convection.

Models indicate predominately VFR this afternoon outside of
scattered showers/tstms. Have included VCSH at CAE/CUB given
proximity of convection. Scattered convection could affect other
TAF sites, but confidence is lower given coverage. Convection
will begin to diminish with sunset.

SREF show the best chance for restrictions north of the TAF
sites late tonight. Given similar conditions tonight as with
the past night, will not include restrictions overnight. Could
also see stratocumulus with bases around 2kft agl develop
around mid-morning Thursday. Winds will be southwest 10 kts or
less outside of convection, becoming light overnight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Mainly diurnal showers and
thunderstorms with associated restrictions each day along with
late night/early morning stratus/fog.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Columbia SC
436 AM EDT Wed Jun 9 2021

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-
116-135>137-100845-
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Burke-Chesterfield-McCormick-
Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-Richland-Lee-
Aiken-Sumter-Barnwell-Calhoun-Clarendon-Bamberg-Northern Lancaster-
Southern Lancaster-Northwestern Orangeburg-Central Orangeburg-
Southeastern Orangeburg-
436 AM EDT Wed Jun 9 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
338 PM EDT Wed Jun 9 2021

SCZ027-028-092015-
Lexington SC-Richland SC-
338 PM EDT Wed Jun 9 2021

...Strong Thunderstorms Will Impact Portions of central Lexington and
central Richland Counties Until 415 PM EDT....

At 337 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm 8 miles west of Red Bank, moving northeast at 25
mph.

  HAZARD...gusty winds 40 to 50 mph, up to penny sized hail and
           excessive cloud to ground lightning.

  IMPACT...expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to plants,
           trees and crops is possible. Damage to windshields is
           unlikely. All outdoor activities should cease. Move
           indoors immediately.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Columbia, Lexington, West Columbia, Cayce, Irmo, Forest Acres,
Batesburg-Leesville, Springdale, St. Andrews, Highway 6 at Lake
Murray Dam, Red Bank, Oak Grove, South Congaree, Pine Ridge, Columbia
International University, Harbison State Forest, Riverbanks Zoo, SC
State Farmer's Market, Columbia Metro Airport and SC State Fair
Grounds.

Move indoors immediately.  Excessive cloud to ground lightning is
occurring with this storm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 126 between mile markers 0 and 3.
 Interstate 20 in South Carolina between mile markers 39 and 70.
 Interstate 26 between mile markers 100 and 117.
 Interstate 77 between mile markers 0 and 11.

LAT...LON 3378 8144 3391 8152 3419 8109 3395 8091
TIME...MOT...LOC 1937Z 242DEG 21KT 3389 8137

gpl