Special Weather Statement, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
213 PM EDT Tue May 11 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Wedge conditions along with increasing rain chances will be over the
area for Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure ridges in from the
north and waves of low pressure moves along the stalled front to our
south. Widespread rain and below normal temperatures are expected
Wednesday and Thursday with high pressure and dry conditions
returning for Friday into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The cold front that began to push through the area has been very
slow to move today and currently sits in central Georgia and just
south of Barnwell and Bamberg counties as a stationary front. Weak
southerly moisture advection will cause building cloud coverage
along the front tonight. Isentropic lift will bring some weak
to moderate rain north of the front, mainly in the CSRA and
southern Midlands with chances starting to increase around
midnight. PWATs look to be around 1.5 inches along the southern
end of the forecast area and will continue to increase through
morning. CAMs continue to focus the rain along the coastal plain
at 05z and begin to increase coverage into the eastern Midlands
near 08z. By the end of the near term period, rain will become
widespread. Rain amounts less than a quarter of an inch in the
northern Midlands to closer to three quarters along the CSRA.

The cold air wedge will begin to take hold late tonight with weak
cold air advection into the region. Wednesday's high
temperature will likely be at midnight tonight with temperatures
continuing to dip through the night and the daylight hours.
Temperatures in this period will not be the Wednesday low,
however morning temperatures will be in the mid to late 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Wednesday and Wednesday night: Surface front will still be
situatedover the southern cwa early Wednesday. Shortwave will
be moving into the region from the west early in the day,
bringing widespread rainfall into the area. Some rainfall may be
heavy at times into the early afternoon, then should lighten up
as the shortwave moves east of the cwa. Bigger issue will be
the strengthening surface wedge that will be pushing into the
area from the north. Temperatures may actually slowly fall
throughout the day as a much colder airmass moves into the area.
Daytime highs in the middle 50s across the northern counties,
with the upper 50s in the Midlands, and the lower 60s in the
CSRA. These readings are well below normal. By Wednesday night,
some drier air will attempt to move in across the northern
Midlands, possibly bringing a brief period of dry conditions
overnight. Isolated to scattered light rain may still remain
possible over the southern counties. Overnight lows will be in
the mid to upper 40s.

Thursday and Thursday night: The surface wedge pattern is expected
to remain across the region during the day Thursday, and this should
keep temperatures well below normal once again, although
possibly not quite as cool as Wednesday. There may be some
breaks in the clouds over the northern cwa later in the day,
which could allow temperatures to be warmer than the southern
cwa. There will be isolated to scattered showers through the
period on Thursday, although rainfall amounts will remain light.
Late Thursday night, drier air will finally overspread the cwa,
bringing an end to all the rainfall. Depending on if and when
the wedge breaks late Thursday, highs on Thursday will reach
into the mid 60s for most locations, while overnight lows
Thursday night drop down into in the mid 40s to around 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Cooler and drier conditions being indicated by many of the models
through the weekend.  Temperatures will remain below normal, with a
slight trend towards normal late in the weekend.  Then next chance
for rainfall not expected until after the end of the longer term
period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Cold air wedge conditions will make for increased restrictions
tonight. We will remain VFR through the evening but cloud decks
will quickly lower as moisture starts increase through the
night. Expect some scattered showers in the CSRA by midnight,
becoming widespread to the other terminals by early morning. May
have some visibility restrictions within heavier showers.
Widespread IFR ceiling restrictions by 10z at all terminals.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Conditions begin to improve late
in the week with dry air building in.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Columbia SC
417 AM EDT Tue May 11 2021

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-
116-135>137-120830-
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Burke-Chesterfield-McCormick-
Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-Richland-Lee-
Aiken-Sumter-Barnwell-Calhoun-Clarendon-Bamberg-Northern Lancaster-
Southern Lancaster-Northwestern Orangeburg-Central Orangeburg-
Southeastern Orangeburg-
417 AM EDT Tue May 11 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
514 PM EDT Tue May 11 2021

GAZ077-112200-
Burke GA-
514 PM EDT Tue May 11 2021

...Strong Thunderstorms Will Impact Portions of southwestern Burke
County Until 600 PM EDT....

At 514 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm near Midville, or 11 miles southeast of
Louisville, moving east at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...gusty winds 40 to 50 mph and pea sized hail.

  IMPACT...expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to plants,
           trees and crops is possible. Damage to windshields is
           unlikely.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Midville, Di-Lane Wildlife Management Area, Magruder and Rosier.

LAT...LON 3282 8226 3283 8231 3293 8227 3301 8228
      3295 8187 3292 8196 3292 8208 3288 8213
      3281 8215 3280 8221
TIME...MOT...LOC 2114Z 277DEG 13KT 3291 8224

CJR