Special Weather Statement, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
430 PM EDT Thu Mar 18 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Line of showers and storms moving in from the west with severe
weather still possible, mainly along the Piedmont. Cool high
pressure will build over the region tonight and be reinforced on
Friday as a backdoor front sinks south through the area. Cooler
but fair weather is expected over the weekend, followed by a
warming trend early next week as an upper ridge builds over the
region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Disorganized showers and isolated storms in the southeastern
portion of the forecast area continue to move into a less
favorable airmass with a capping inversion remaining in place
with significant convective inhibition. Lift associated with a
weak shortwave will be unlikely to break the cap and so the
severe threat in this portion of the forecast area seems to be
over, with the tornado watch cancelled for Burke, Barnwell,
Bamberg, Orangeburg, Calhoun and Clarendon counties. The next
focus of any potential severe weather will be more linear
convection to the west which has shown much better organization
and is entering a more favorable, destabilized environment that
saw clouds clear earlier today. In additional, forcing will be
higher with upper low to the NW. Still a bit of a tornado
concern as well, although hodographs do not look quite as
impressive in the near term as they did earlier today (and that
threat didn't really pan out). Will be worth watching the line
as it progresses east as there is some broad rotation evident on
radar. Seems like the highest chance for severe weather will be
damaging gusty winds as showers or storms mix out the stronger
low level jet, although an isolated tornado cannot be ruled
out. Breezy conditions continue elsewhere ahead of the front
with gusts above 30 mph as we start mixing out the stronger jet
aloft. Cold front will push east later this evening with severe
threat coming to an end and winds decreasing slightly behind
the front.

Tonight, cold advection will overspread the region behind the
cold front with westerly winds around 10 mph. Radiational
cooling will be limited by the winds keeping the boundary layer
mixed but cold advection should support overnight lows in the
40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An upper level trough moves off the North Carolina coast Friday
morning and The Midlands and CSRA will be in the southern branch of
the jet stream through this weekend. Cooler air behind the upper
trough will lead to below normal temperatures for late March.
Low temperatures may drop into the lower 30s across the Northern
Midlands and Catawba regions. Frost/freeze headlines may be
needed Saturday and perhaps Sunday mornings.

A weak shortwave is expected to interact with moisture from a
stalled frontal boundary on Sunday for a slight chance of
showers in the southeast Midlands and lower CSRA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure aloft builds across the Southeast U.S. through the
middle of next week for dry weather and a warming trend to near or
slightly above normal temperatures. Model ensembles depict low
confidence in timing the breakdown of the upper ridge later
next week which allows shortwave troughs to move into the
region. The NBM consensus introduces a chance of showers next
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Cold front west of the TAF sites will cross the area in the 19/00z
to 19/03z timeframe. Strong gusty southerly winds ahead of the
front. Behind the front winds become west and diminish somewhat, but
remain 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots overnight. Main
convection crossing the Piedmont and northern Midlands should pass
north of CAE/CUB, but cannot completely rule out scattered
convection through 23z. Predominate MVFR cigs at all sites though
23z then VFR expected. Northwest winds at 12z veering north to
northeast through the morning as a backdoor cold front crosses the
area from the north.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Cig restrictions possible from time
to time Saturday night through Tuesday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Columbia SC
421 AM EDT Thu Mar 18 2021

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-115-116-
190830-
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Burke-Chesterfield-McCormick-
Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-Richland-Lee-
Aiken-Sumter-Barnwell-Orangeburg-Calhoun-Clarendon-Bamberg-
Northern Lancaster-Southern Lancaster-
421 AM EDT Thu Mar 18 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A line of thunderstorms will move through the region Thursday morning
into the afternoon ahead of a cold front. Severe thunderstorms are
likely with damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes
possible, some strong.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
424 PM EDT Thu Mar 18 2021

SCZ020-021-182115-
Fairfield SC-Newberry SC-
424 PM EDT Thu Mar 18 2021

...Strong Thunderstorms Will Impact Portions of Fairfield and
northeastern Newberry Counties Until 515 PM EDT....

At 423 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated
strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near Carlisle to 6
miles west of VC Summer Nuclear Station, moving east at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph.

  IMPACT...expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of these storms include...
Winnsboro, VC Summer Nuclear Station, Fairfield County Airport,
Monticello, Jenkinsville, Blair, Pomaria, Lebanon Fire Station,
Henderson Island, Fairfield County Detention Center, Rion, Winnsboro
Mills, Fairfield Elementary School, Maybington Fire Station,
Feasterville Fire Station, White Oak and Blackstock.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A tornado watch is in effect. Thunderstorms can produce tornadoes
suddenly, sometimes with little or no warning. Be alert for rapidly
changing weather conditions and be ready to act quickly if severe
weather is observed or a warning is issued.

&&

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 26 between mile markers 80 and 81.
 Interstate 77 near mile marker 35.

LAT...LON 3455 8102 3426 8100 3424 8149 3447 8151
      3449 8149 3449 8146 3450 8142 3456 8143
      3457 8142
TIME...MOT...LOC 2023Z 269DEG 27KT 3454 8144 3432 8142

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
426 PM EDT THU MAR 18 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0402 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 6 NNE HEPHZIBAH         33.36N 82.06W
03/18/2021                   RICHMOND           GA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            AUGUSTA FIRE RESPONDED TO A SNAPPED POWER
            POLE ON BOYKIN ROAD.

&&

CRL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
441 PM EDT Thu Mar 18 2021

SCZ115-182115-
Northern Lancaster SC-
441 PM EDT Thu Mar 18 2021

...Strong Thunderstorms Will Impact Portions of Northern Lancaster
County Until 515 PM EDT....

At 441 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm over Carowinds, or 8 miles northwest of Indian
Land, moving east at 55 mph.

  HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph.

  IMPACT...expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Indian Land and Community of Almond Glen.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A tornado watch is in effect. Thunderstorms can produce tornadoes
suddenly, sometimes with little or no warning. Be alert for rapidly
changing weather conditions and be ready to act quickly if severe
weather is observed or a warning is issued.

&&

LAT...LON 3502 8086 3501 8084 3500 8084 3500 8089
      3502 8091 3504 8090 3505 8091 3507 8090
TIME...MOT...LOC 2041Z 269DEG 49KT 3509 8097

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
501 PM EDT Thu Mar 18 2021

SCZ116-182130-
Southern Lancaster SC-
501 PM EDT Thu Mar 18 2021

...Strong Thunderstorms Will Impact Portions of Southern Lancaster
County Until 530 PM EDT....

At 500 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm over Fishing Creek Reservoir, or 10 miles
southwest of Lancaster, moving northeast at 50 mph.

  HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph.

  IMPACT...expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Lancaster, Elgin, Heath Springs, USC Lancaster, Irwin, Buford,
Fishing Creek Reservoir, Bell Town Fire Station, Arrowood Estates,
Tradesville, Camp Creek Fire Station, Antioch, Kirk Air Base, Faith
Christian School, Forty Acre Rock Preserve, Taxahaw, Pleasant Hill,
Unity Fire Station, Lancaster Mill and McWhirter Airfield.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A tornado watch is in effect. Thunderstorms can produce tornadoes
suddenly, sometimes with little or no warning. Be alert for rapidly
changing weather conditions and be ready to act quickly if severe
weather is observed or a warning is issued.

&&

LAT...LON 3465 8043 3452 8074 3454 8074 3446 8088
      3448 8089 3449 8090 3450 8088 3457 8087
      3460 8089 3465 8089 3469 8086 3475 8088
      3482 8070 3482 8058
TIME...MOT...LOC 2100Z 245DEG 43KT 3463 8092

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
548 PM EDT Thu Mar 18 2021

SCZ021-022-116-182230-
Fairfield SC-Southern Lancaster SC-Kershaw SC-
548 PM EDT Thu Mar 18 2021

...Strong Thunderstorms Will Impact Portions of northern Fairfield...
Southern Lancaster and northwestern Kershaw Counties Until 630 PM
EDT....

...Boaters on Lake Wateree Should Seek Safe Harbor...

At 548 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated
strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near Lake Wateree
State Park to near Fairfield County Airport, moving east at 40 mph.

  HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph and pea sized hail.

  IMPACT...expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to plants,
           trees and crops is possible. Damage to windshields is
           unlikely.

Some locations in the path of these storms include...
Winnsboro, Kershaw, Heath Springs, Fairfield County Airport,
Longtown, Liberty Hill, Lake Wateree State Park, Ridgeway, Faith
Christian School, Fairfield County Detention Center, Rion, Winnsboro
Mills, Fairfield Elementary School, Kershaw Correctional Institution
and Lake Wateree near Highway 97.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Boaters on Lake Wateree should move to shore and seek shelter.
Strong, erratic wind gusts and lightning are possible. If you can
hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

This includes Interstate 77 between mile markers 34 and 45.

LAT...LON 3462 8052 3453 8054 3431 8081 3428 8129
      3454 8090 3454 8088 3460 8087
TIME...MOT...LOC 2148Z 253DEG 36KT 3450 8088 3433 8120

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
551 PM EDT Thu Mar 18 2021

SCZ016-182215-
Chesterfield SC-
551 PM EDT Thu Mar 18 2021

...Strong Thunderstorms Will Impact Portions of northwestern
Chesterfield County Until 615 PM EDT....

At 550 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm near Pageland, or 15 miles east of Lancaster,
moving northeast at 55 mph.

  HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph.

  IMPACT...expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Pageland, Mount Croghan, High Point Fire Station and Central High
School.

LAT...LON 3466 8044 3471 8049 3472 8049 3473 8050
      3477 8052 3479 8055 3482 8056 3481 8008
TIME...MOT...LOC 2150Z 239DEG 49KT 3476 8050

fwa