Severe Thunderstorm Warning 59, NWS Columbia, SC

084 
WWUS52 KCAE 190109
SVSCAE

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
909 PM EDT Sun Jul 18 2021

SCC011-190116-
/O.CAN.KCAE.SV.W.0059.000000T0000Z-210719T0115Z/
Barnwell SC-
909 PM EDT Sun Jul 18 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR BARNWELL COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3413 8163 3407 8150 3408 8139 3381 8104
      3375 8106 3375 8104 3378 8101 3374 8096
      3371 8104 3365 8102 3350 8130 3348 8136
      3349 8138 3345 8146 3369 8194 3384 8203
TIME...MOT...LOC 0106Z 211DEG 27KT 3386 8165 3353 8128 

$$

SCC003-037-063-075-081-190115-
/O.CON.KCAE.SV.W.0059.000000T0000Z-210719T0115Z/
Edgefield SC-Lexington SC-Aiken SC-Saluda SC-Orangeburg SC-
909 PM EDT Sun Jul 18 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM EDT
FOR CENTRAL EDGEFIELD...LEXINGTON...NORTHERN AIKEN...SALUDA AND
NORTHWESTERN ORANGEBURG COUNTIES...

At 906 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Ridge Spring to 11 miles north of Blackville, moving
northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Aiken, Lexington, Batesburg-Leesville, Red Bank, Edgefield, Saluda,
Johnston, Gaston, Ridge Spring, Edgefield County Airport, Saluda
County Airport, Aiken Municipal Airport, Aiken State Park, Swansea,
Wagener, North, Pelion, Gilbert, Summit and Salley.

This includes Interstate 20 in South Carolina between mile markers 14
and 54.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection seek shelter inside a sturdy building and stay
away from windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3413 8163 3407 8150 3408 8139 3381 8104
      3375 8106 3375 8104 3378 8101 3374 8096
      3371 8104 3365 8102 3350 8130 3348 8136
      3349 8138 3345 8146 3369 8194 3384 8203
TIME...MOT...LOC 0106Z 211DEG 27KT 3386 8165 3353 8128 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

CJR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
550 PM EDT Sun Jul 18 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak surface front will move into our area and provide increased
chances of showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday. Drier air is
expected to filter into the region for the latter half of the week,
providing lower chances for rain and near normal temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
530pm Update: The primary batch of thunderstorms has moved to
the east of the FA. Behind it, a weak band of thunderstorms has
developed along the residual outflow boundary. This band is
expected to remain fairly isolated and push through Saluda,
Lexington, and Newberry counties in the next few hours. Hi-res
guidance is fairly bullish on re-development later this evening
as moisture advection continues over the fairly stabilized
airmass in the wake of this afternoon's thunderstorm complex.
Mesoanalysis still shows CAPE values over 2000 J/kg in the
CSRA with PWATs around 2 inches. So with the southwesterly flow
and some lingering boundaries, portions of the CSRA will remain
fairly conducive for additional convection into the evening.
However, dropped PoPs slightly for later evening for our
eastern counties since given the widespread cloud cover.

The front to our north will stall along the Carolinas later
tonight, which will allow for some showers and scattered
thunderstorms late overnight. Mean hi-res models show the
majority of precip will be along our northwest counties but will
become more widespread by sunrise. Lows in the low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
An upper low over the northern states will lift northeast on MOnday
leaving an elongated trough through the Appalachians into the lower
MS Valley. Models indicate a cut-off low developing over the Deep
South. A deep southwest flow will continue to pump significant
moisture across the area with PWATs around 2 inches. Meanwhile a
surface cold front will push into the Carolinas from the north which
combined with shortwaves moving through the area will support
convection much of the day. Any convection will have high rain rates
but should be fairly progressive. Training storms will be a concern
as flash flooding will be the main threat for Monday, mainly in
urban and low-lying areas. Expect convection to linger into the
overnight.

Similar conditions expected for Tuesday with the cold front draped
over the area. Showers and and thunderstorms once again expected
with PWATs 2.0+ inches. A slightly higher flash flood threat will be
possible, depending on antecedent conditions from Monday.

Cloud cover and precipitation will keep highs in the low to mid 80s
with lows in the upper 60s and low 70s both days.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mean upper trough will reside over the eastern states through the
weekend. Global models (with ensemble member support) depict a cut-
off low over the lower MS Valley drifting west into TX. Deep west-
southwest flow across the region Wednesday. Short wave rounding the
base of the upper trough will combine with moderate instability and
pwats around 1.7 to 1.8 inches to keep scattered to numerous
showers/tstms in the forecast.

Even with the front becoming diffuse by midweek, there will be at
least scattered diurnal convection through next weekend. Northwest
flow aloft takes over Thursday, decreasing precip chances. Expect
temperatures to rebound in the long term with highs in the low to
mid 90s and lows in the low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mainly VFR through early afternoon. Better chances of convection
later today, which may extend into late tonight and early tomorrow
morning. Increased moisture will cause some ceiling and
visibility restrictions towards the end of the period.

Moisture continues to increase across the area with a shortwave
kicking up showers and thunderstorms. Coverage will become
widespread later this afternoon/evening. Some storms may be heavy
which will impact visibility. Have a tempo group through the time
period of greatest convection, however chances of thunderstorms will
last into the morning with coverage diminishing after midnight.
Winds will become light and variable overnight. Models are in good
agreement of some MVFR/IFR ceilings moving in from the north
overnight, with greatest chances at the Columbia and
Orangeburg terminals. Some fog possible at prone Augusta.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible each day within
thunderstorms and early morning stratus/fog. Restrictions may become
more widespread through Tuesday as a cold front moves into the
area.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Columbia SC
405 AM EDT Sun Jul 18 2021

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-
116-135>137-190815-
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Burke-Chesterfield-McCormick-
Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-Richland-Lee-
Aiken-Sumter-Barnwell-Calhoun-Clarendon-Bamberg-Northern Lancaster-
Southern Lancaster-Northwestern Orangeburg-Central Orangeburg-
Southeastern Orangeburg-
405 AM EDT Sun Jul 18 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms developing today which may become more
widespread. Periods of heavy rain the main threat with an isolated
damaging wind gust in the eastern forecast area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms Monday through
Tuesday producing heavy rain with localized flash flooding possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
235 PM EDT Sun Jul 18 2021

SCZ028-031-037-038-135>137-181900-
Central Orangeburg SC-Southeastern Orangeburg SC-Calhoun SC-
Clarendon SC-Richland SC-Sumter SC-Northwestern Orangeburg SC-
235 PM EDT Sun Jul 18 2021

...Strong Thunderstorms Will Impact Portions of eastern Central
Orangeburg...Southeastern Orangeburg...Calhoun...southwestern
Clarendon...southeastern Richland...southwestern Sumter and
northeastern Northwestern Orangeburg Counties Until 300 PM EDT....

...Boaters on Lake Marion Should Seek Safe Harbor...

At 234 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm over Edisto Gardens, or over Orangeburg, moving
northeast at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...gusty winds 40 to 50 mph, excessive cloud to ground
           lightning and localized minor flooding.

  IMPACT...expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. All outdoor activities should
           cease. Move indoors immediately. Localized, minor
           flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas is also
           possible.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Orangeburg, Brookdale, St. Matthews, Bowman, Elloree, Santee State
Park, Claflin College, South Carolina State University, Orangeburg
County Airport, Edisto Gardens, Santee, Cameron, Eutawville,
Rowesville, Vance, Poplar Creek Landing, Rimini, Fort Motte,
Stumphole Landing and Prince of Orange Mall.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Boaters on Lake Marion should move to shore and seek shelter. Strong,
erratic wind gusts and lightning are possible. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

Heavy rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may cause localized
flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

Move indoors immediately.  Excessive cloud to ground lightning is
occurring with this storm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 26 between mile markers 132 and 169.
 Interstate 95 between mile markers 85 and 106.

LAT...LON 3323 8072 3368 8109 3385 8065 3344 8025
TIME...MOT...LOC 1834Z 246DEG 16KT 3348 8086

LM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
324 PM EDT Sun Jul 18 2021

SCZ027-028-182015-
Lexington SC-Richland SC-
324 PM EDT Sun Jul 18 2021

...Strong Thunderstorms Will Impact Portions of east central
Lexington and central Richland Counties Until 415 PM EDT....

At 324 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm over West Columbia Riverwalk, or over Columbia.
This storm was nearly stationary.

  HAZARD...gusty winds 40 to 50 mph, pea sized hail and excessive
           cloud to ground lightning.

  IMPACT...expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to plants,
           trees and crops is possible. Damage to windshields is
           unlikely. All outdoor activities should cease. Move
           indoors immediately.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Columbia, West Columbia, Cayce, Irmo, Forest Acres, Springdale, St.
Andrews, McEntire Air Base, Dentsville, Oak Grove, Pine Ridge,
Arcadia Lakes, Hopkins, Villages at Sandhill, Columbia International
University, Horrel Hill, Killian, Riverbanks Zoo, Woodfield and
Sesquicentennial State Park.

Move indoors immediately.  Excessive cloud to ground lightning is
occurring with this storm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 126 between mile markers 0 and 3.
 Interstate 20 in South Carolina between mile markers 60 and 82.
 Interstate 26 between mile markers 105 and 118.
 Interstate 77 between mile markers 0 and 25.

LAT...LON 3383 8091 3383 8093 3385 8096 3385 8099
      3386 8100 3388 8100 3388 8103 3403 8120
      3421 8094 3400 8066
TIME...MOT...LOC 1924Z 233DEG 4KT 3400 8105

CJR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
339 PM EDT Sun Jul 18 2021

SCZ038-182015-
Clarendon SC-
339 PM EDT Sun Jul 18 2021

...Strong Thunderstorms Will Impact Portions of northeastern
Clarendon County Until 415 PM EDT....

At 339 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm near Alcolu, or near Manning, moving northeast at
40 mph.

  HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph and localized minor flooding.

  IMPACT...expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Localized minor flooding of low
           lying and poor drainage areas is also possible.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Manning, Alcolu, Turbeville and Gable.

Heavy rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may cause localized
flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

This includes Interstate 95 between mile markers 120 and 133.

LAT...LON 3382 7992 3381 7995 3377 7999 3372 7997
      3367 8001 3361 8012 3377 8030 3394 7999
      3394 7997 3390 7996 3388 7994 3389 7988
TIME...MOT...LOC 1939Z 234DEG 34KT 3373 8011

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
357 PM EDT SUN JUL 18 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 NNE MANNING           33.79N 80.17W
07/18/2021                   CLARENDON          SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SC HIGHWAY PATROL REPORTED A DOWNED TREE
            BLOCKING PORTIONS OF I-95 AT MILE MARKER
            126.5. DOWNED TREE CONFIRMED VIA DOT HIGHWAY
            CAMERA. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

MG/SL