Areal Flood Advisory 40, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
803 AM EDT Tue Jul 20 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A nearly stationary front, and copious atmospheric moisture,
will continue to provide high chances of showers and
thunderstorms again Today. A transition to more typical
summerlike weather, with a chance of mainly afternoon and
evening thunderstorms, expected mid to late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
It would appear as if there will be similar conditions as the
past few days. Pwat values remain high, with readings over 2
inches across the area. Plenty of low-level boundaries will
combine with weak upper shortwaves moving through on a southwest
flow aloft. With the sounding profiles very moist throughout,
the majority of the rain will be in the form of showers, with
only isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible due to limited
instability. Portions of the area are under a slight risk of
heavy rainfall. Rainfall may be heavy at times, and this could
cause some flooding issues in urban areas, and in rural areas
that have already received significant rainfall amounts over the
last day. Daytime highs will only be in the low to mid 80s due
the amount of clouds, moisture, and expected afternoon rains.
Lows tonight back down to around 70 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Array of guidance continues to indicate that the closed low will
retrograde westward into TX/SW US, while the upper trough deepens
over the NE and Mid Atlantic coast, through the period. Upper flow
over our region will transition into more W/NW Wednesday, with h5
streamline analysis still indicating appearance of some convergence
aloft. Ensembles agree on maintaining high moisture over the region
Wednesday, then shifting the band of greatest moisture a little
farther south towards the S FA and the coast, with some drier air
moving in across the north, Wed nt/Thu. NBM responds with a trend
towards lesser POPs.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Ensemble guidance continues in good agreement that the east coast
upper trough remains over the east coast, with NW flow aloft for our
region, and PW values near climatological normals. By late in the
forecast period, the upper trough is expected to lift, with weak
high pressure axis aloft shifting into our region.  Will expect a
typical summerlike pattern through much of the period with scattered
mainly diurnal convection

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Varied restrictions for the remainder of the day. Short periods
of VFR outside of rain and thunderstorms, but mainly MVFR/IFR.

LIFR/IFR visibilities will improve at Augusta terminals by 13z
and ceilings should begin lifting to MVFR by noon due to better
mixing thru rainfall. Confidence is still low in the timing and
location of, if any, VFR improvement. Brief periods of clearing
possible but for the most part MVFR outside of rain and storms.
Overnight conditions will be dependent on location of rainfall
this evening. Winds outside of any convection should generally
be light and variable.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible
each day within thunderstorms and early morning stratus/fog.
Chances of restrictions may decrease later this week.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Columbia SC
358 AM EDT Tue Jul 20 2021

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-
116-135>137-210800-
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Burke-Chesterfield-McCormick-
Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-Richland-Lee-
Aiken-Sumter-Barnwell-Calhoun-Clarendon-Bamberg-Northern Lancaster-
Southern Lancaster-Northwestern Orangeburg-Central Orangeburg-
Southeastern Orangeburg-
358 AM EDT Tue Jul 20 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Locally heavy rain possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1040 AM EDT TUE JUL 20 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 AM     FLOOD            10 S MONETTA            33.71N 81.60W
07/20/2021                   AIKEN              SC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED THE ROADWAY
            FLOODED AT THE INTERSECTION OF KEDRON CHURCH
            ROAD AND CUMBEE TRAIL ROAD.

&&

LCV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1041 AM EDT TUE JUL 20 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 AM     FLOOD            4 S MONETTA             33.79N 81.61W
07/20/2021                   AIKEN              SC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED ONGOING FLOODING
            OF THE ROADWAY ALONG OLD SHOALS ROAD NEAR
            THE BRIDGE CROSSING MCTIER CREEK. THIS IS
            JUST NORTH OF THE INTERSECTION OF OLD SHOALS
            ROAD AND MT. PLEASANT ROAD. ROADWAY
            CURRENTLY CLOSED.

&&

LCV