Special Weather Statement, NWS Billings, MT

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
911 PM MDT Wed Jul 7 2021

.UPDATE...

Updated the forecast to cancel the Severe Thunderstorm Watch for
Musselshell, Yellowstone and Treasure Counties. The Severe
Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect for the rest of southeast MT
until 11 PM MDT tonight. RMS

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Thursday night...

A couple of disturbances moving through the area this afternoon
through tonight. First one doesn't pack much punch but is
producing a few very light showers and some wind gusts to 30 mph
around Livingston. The cloud cover from this feature is helping to
hold temperatures down just a bit from what they would be, and may
cut 5 degrees off high temperatures across the southwest quarter
of the forecast area. The second disturbance will push into the
area from the west around 4pm or so and is expected to generate a
squall line of high based thunderstorms that will cross the area
this evening exiting the east in the early morning hours. Airmass
and shear profiles are much different than yesterday, so the mode
of storms today will be high based with damaging wind gusts being
the main threat. Last several runs of the HRRR showing a wall of
wind moving into the Billings area between 5 and 7pm with gusts in
the 40 to 60 mph range, and possibly as high as 75mph if
everything plays out just right. The aforementioned cloud cover
reduced temperatures may play a role in just how strong those
winds get. Frequent lightning, brief rainfall, and maybe some
small hail are also possible with these storms.

Thursday looks drier with less convective activity. Models are
taking the next disturbance well north of the area which allows
downslope west to northwest winds to scour out some of the
moisture that was in place the past week or so. That pushes RH
values well into the teens to single digits, while temperatures
stick in the mid to upper 90s. At this time winds look light
enough to preclude any fire weather highlites but will keep an eye
on that.

Thursday night northeast winds try to surge back into the area
from the northern plains, bringing moisture and cooler air back
int the area for Friday. Along this resurgent boundary there could
be a few showers/thunderstorms develop, mainly from Rosebud county
east.

Main message for the short term, be prepared for the possibility
of damaging winds with line of storms that moves through this
evening. Chambers

Friday through Wednesday...

The extended period continues to look fairly active, at least to
start the period, with some potential for late period activity as
well.

Friday and Friday night should see a chance for widespread precip
for the region, as an upper level trough crosses the region,
flattening the ridge. Precip is expecte to linger in the east for
much of the day Saturday. The upper level ridge is quick to
rebuild over western Montana Saturday and shift eastward Sunday,
bringing a return of dry conditions and hot temperatures.

An area of low pressure is progged across southern Canada Sunday
night, which should flatten the ridge again. The pattern locks
fairly flat from this point through midweek, allowing potential
for a more progressive, active pattern to re-emerge. A cold front
associated with the Canadian low is expected to dropping through
the area Monday, bringing slightly cooler temps, and a chance for
showers and thunderstorms. Additional pieces of energy will keep
temps a little cooler than those seen over the weekend, and could
bring additional precip potential. Currently ensembles and models
look fairly dry for the latter half of the extended period, so
grids are mainly dry this far out.

Expect highs in the 80s to low 90s for Friday and Saturday, with
with 90s to a few degrees above 100 for Sunday. Upper 80 and low
90s are expected for the beginning of next week. Overnight lows
look to be in the 50s and 60s for most nights. Gilstad

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. A few
thunderstorms are drifting through the southern mountains early
this afternoon, slowly diminishing as they move eastward. Main
aviation threat with this activity will be localized gusts to
35kts. A squall line is expected to develop over the western
foothills (KLVM) late this afternoon and spread eastward into the
KBIL area between 23-01z and into KMLS 03-05z. Thunderstorms along
this squall are expected to produce wind gusts of 40 to 60kts.
Local MVFR visibility is possible near precipitation areas
associated with the squall line. Conditions will improve quickly
behind the line. Chambers
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 064/097 063/088 059/091 063/099 066/093 063/092 063/092
    21/U    14/T    10/U    00/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 055/094 054/085 052/092 056/097 057/092 055/091 055/091
    21/H    14/T    10/U    00/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
HDN 061/098 061/091 056/092 059/100 062/096 060/095 060/094
    31/U    24/T    20/U    00/U    00/U    11/U    11/U
MLS 065/095 062/087 061/088 063/098 065/094 062/092 062/091
    41/U    24/T    31/U    01/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 065/095 063/088 061/086 061/095 066/095 063/091 063/090
    41/U    24/T    42/T    01/U    01/U    11/U    21/U
BHK 060/093 058/086 057/085 058/094 060/093 058/088 058/088
    52/T    24/T    52/T    01/U    11/U    11/U    21/U
SHR 058/094 057/086 053/087 055/095 059/092 057/091 057/088
    21/U    14/T    31/U    01/U    11/U    12/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 346 in effect until 11 PM MDT this
      evening FOR ZONES 31>33-36-37-57-58-138-139-169-171.
WY...None.

&&

weather.gov/billings

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Billings MT
602 AM MDT Wed Jul 7 2021

MTZ029>034-036-037-040-042-056>058-063>068-138-139-141-169>173-228-
235-081215-
Musselshell-Treasure-Northern Rosebud-Custer-Fallon-
Northern Stillwater-Powder River-Carter-Northern Park-
Golden Valley-Red Lodge Foothills-Northern Big Horn-
Southern Rosebud-Judith Gap-Paradise Valley-Livingston Area-
Beartooth Foothills-Absaroka/Beartooth Mountains-Crazy Mountains-
Southern Big Horn-Southeastern Carbon-Northern Sweet Grass-
Bighorn Canyon-Northern Carbon-Pryor/Northern Bighorn Mountains-
Melville Foothills-Northeastern Yellowstone-Southern Wheatland-
Southwestern Yellowstone-
602 AM MDT Wed Jul 7 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Montana...south central Montana and southeast Montana.

* WHAT...Strong to Severe Thunderstorms.

* WHERE...South central and southeast Montana.

* WHEN...This afternoon and evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
  expected this afternoon and evening. A few storms could be
  severe with large hail and strong wind gusts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be ready to seek shelter if threatening weather approaches. Have a
way to receive watches and warnings from the National Weather
Service.

Additional graphics can be found at:

https://www.weather.gov/billings

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
859 PM MDT WED JUL 07 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 PM     TSTM WND GST     18 SSW MIZPAH           45.98N 105.39W
07/07/2021  M82.00 MPH       CUSTER             MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RMS

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