Special Weather Statement, NWS Billings, MT

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
314 PM MDT Thu Jun 10 2021

.UPDATE...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for northern tier of our CWA
until 10 PM. Strong ascent from short wave trough upstream should
interact with 60 kt shear to produce a few strong to severe
storms with hail and high wind. Most of this should stay north of
Billings. Window in Golden Valley and Musselshell counties may be
short lived and over by 6-7 pm...but short range models are now
suggesting some of this may push east across northern Rosebud and
Custer Counties through mid evening..mainly north of I-94. BT

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of Today through Saturday Night...

Sharp trough passage expected today to produce a dynamic and
active weather situation across the region. For our CWA the main
threat is strong winds (50-65 mph) along a powerful frontal
passage late today into the evening. Frontal passage winds may be
enhanced by showers and some weaker thunderstorm outflows. This
will all be generally covered by the High Wind Warning we have in
place from 5 pm to 3 am from Rosebud County eastward.

Dry air intrusion (dry slot) from the south will move up into
southeast Montana pushing the best low level moisture and CAPE
across the Dakota Border this afternoon. Hence, the enhanced area
of severe thunderstorm potential has been pulled east to reflect
this. We could still get a few strong to severe cells in Fallon or
Carter Counties, but the bulk of the severe threat is in the
Dakotas and up in northeast Montana.

The dry air late today (humidity near 10 percent possible)
combined with the frontal winds may enhance any fire behavior, so
the Red Flag from 10 am to 10 pm looks reasonable with these
extreme parameters despite some fuels not being quite ready.

Trough axis pushes through to the Dakotas after about 1 am
tonight, so we expect diminishing winds for most areas after
midnight. Friday will be seasonal with temps in the upper 70s to
lower 80s and zero chance of convection. 500mb ridging will
continue to prevail for Saturday with dry conditions and temps
pushing into the 80s to near 90. BT

Sunday through Thursday...

Dry and hot conditions will continue over the extended period.
Wind and precipitation will be minimal to none with the high
pressure that is in place. Temperatures will be in the low 90s on
Sunday which will be the coolest you will see for a few days.
Monday and Tuesday will bring temperatures well into the upper 90s
to mid 100s, which is 20 to 30 degrees above normal for this time
of year. Temperatures will cool slightly Wednesday back into the
90s and the 80s by Thursday. There is a potential for many record
highs being broken across all sites early next week. Make sure to
take precautions if you must be outdoors.

Carrothers
&&

.AVIATION...
Strong cold front will cross the region this evening, bringing
strong and gusty northwest winds (45-60 mph) across all routes.
Another round of thunderstorms is expected with the cold front,
with strong wind gusts expected to be the main severe threat.
Localized MVFR/IFR conditions are possible in heavier precip.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail today. BT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 048/076 051/089 056/092 062/101 064/104 066/096 061/088
    40/N    00/U    00/U    00/G    00/G    00/U    00/U
LVM 040/073 046/084 050/090 054/098 057/100 058/092 053/088
    30/N    00/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
HDN 048/077 048/090 054/095 062/103 063/105 065/097 059/089
    60/U    00/U    00/U    00/G    00/G    00/U    00/U
MLS 053/075 050/089 058/093 065/100 066/102 068/096 061/086
    61/N    00/U    00/U    00/U    10/G    00/U    00/U
4BQ 051/075 052/089 059/094 065/100 065/101 069/096 063/086
    40/N    00/U    00/U    00/U    10/G    00/U    00/U
BHK 050/073 050/088 057/092 062/096 063/098 066/095 060/085
    50/N    00/U    00/U    00/U    10/U    00/U    10/U
SHR 044/076 048/088 055/092 060/099 062/101 063/096 058/088
    40/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/G    00/U    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 252 in effect until 10 PM MDT this
      evening FOR ZONES 29-31-32-42-58-63.
     High Wind Warning in effect until 3 AM MDT Friday FOR ZONES
      30>33-36-37-57-58-138.
     Red Flag Warning in effect until 10 PM MDT this evening FOR
      ZONES 127>133.
WY...High Wind Warning in effect until 3 AM MDT Friday FOR ZONE
      199.
     Red Flag Warning in effect until 10 PM MDT this evening FOR
      ZONE 274.

&&

weather.gov/billings

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Billings MT
342 AM MDT Thu Jun 10 2021

MTZ029>034-036-037-040-042-056>058-063>068-138-139-141-169>173-228-
235-WYZ198-199-111100-
Musselshell-Treasure-Northern Rosebud-Custer-Fallon-
Northern Stillwater-Powder River-Carter-Northern Park-
Golden Valley-Red Lodge Foothills-Northern Big Horn-
Southern Rosebud-Judith Gap-Paradise Valley-Livingston Area-
Beartooth Foothills-Absaroka/Beartooth Mountains-Crazy Mountains-
Southern Big Horn-Southeastern Carbon-Northern Sweet Grass-
Bighorn Canyon-Northern Carbon-Pryor/Northern Bighorn Mountains-
Melville Foothills-Northeastern Yellowstone-Southern Wheatland-
Southwestern Yellowstone-Northeast Bighorn Mountains-
Sheridan Foothills-
342 AM MDT Thu Jun 10 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Montana...south central Montana...southeast Montana and north
central Wyoming.

* WHAT...Severe thunderstorms possible. Also, strong wind gusts
  behind a cold front.

* WHERE...Much of southern Montana and northern Wyoming.

* WHEN...This afternoon and evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A cold front will move through the area and
  generate strong to severe thunderstorms. The primary threat from
  storms is damaging wind, but large hail is also possible, mainly
  over southeast Montana.

* ADDITIONAL HAZARD CONCERNS...The cold front will create west to
  northwest winds gusting 45-60 mph. The strong winds will combine
  with low humidity to cause fire weather concerns for locations
  east of a line from Roundup to Billings to Sheridan.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be sure to stay tuned for further updates on this potential
hazardous weather.

Additional graphics can be found at:

https://www.weather.gov/billings

&&

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